Lord, we thank You for the leisure time to spend reading (and writing!) this blog to know more about You, to amuse ourselves with lesser topics, and to communicate with our fellow readers through comments and the like. Thank You for Your Love, for the sunrises and sunsets, the air we breathe and the earth we live on. Thank You for family, friends, faith, frivolity and a future completely under Your control. In Jesus' precious name, Amen.
CFL Grey Cup Sunday
...is a return of last year's upstart, as Ottawa managed to subdue a hot Edmonton 35-23, against the heavyweight favorite, many-time CFL champion Calgary, which annihilated the second-best team of the year (BC Lions) 42-15 to make the Grey Cup a possible coronation. (But that's what most people would happen a week ago Tuesday, too. That's why we play the games!) Regardless, we're taking the Stampeders to take it as expected, by nine points.
NFL Thanksgiving Weekend
...has some curious matchups, some that our FOLLOWING FOOTBALL computations completely disagree with the oddsters on! Here are the weird ones...take 'em or leave 'em, but we lost slightly last week and trail very slightly over the course of the year:
VEGAS HAS: Atlanta over Arizona by four (we have it by one); Baltimore over Cincinnati by 4.5 (we have it even); Buffalo over Jax by 7.5 (we think they'll win by 13!); Tennessee over Chicago by 3.5 (we take the Bears for the win!); Philly over the Packers by 3.5 (we like 'em by six); the Patriots over the Jets by nine (Brady's gimpy - we see it being a six point game, as much as we've been stung betting against Belechick this year); New Orleans over the Rams by seven (the FF matrix says four, though I'm not personally sure about this one); and Oakland over Carolina by four (FF says one...I'd love to take this, but I disagree with taking the Panthers here. Sorry).
The final weekend of the FBS season!
...and there are some INCREDIBLE games on tap this Friday and Saturday! We're already 3-0 with our early week MAC picks, and looking forward to betting Western Michigan straight up but Toledo with the points in the MAC West championship Friday! Here are the rest of our significant picks...
IN the ACC/SEC rivalry games, take Clemson and Georgia to win and cover; Florida and Kentucky to cover and lose. Some of the major games we have right on the odds lines (as of Tuesday) - OSU a TD favorite over Michigan, North Carolina 11.5 over NC St, Baylor by five over TexTech, Oregon and AzState by a field goal over their instate rivals, Ole Miss by a little more than one TD over MissSt and 'Bama by 16-17 over Auburn (and probably all other comers the rest of the season).
We do like Michigan St to cover against Penn St (not win, though), and the same for Minnesota (v. Wisconsin) and Notre Dame (v USC). OUR numbers give TCU an edge over Texas, but with Strong's imminent firing I wouldn't bet that game with ANYONE'S money, certainly not mine. Cal is even with 3-pt favorite UCLA in our book, and we like A&M to cover against LSU, maybe even win. As much as we root for Chris Petersen, our favorite western coach (Mark Richt in the East, BTW), we have the Apple Cup as a virtual tossup, not the UW victory oddsmakers are expecting.
In the AAC, we'll bet Memphis to cover and (flip) maybe win, and UConn, Navy, and Tulsa get our bets as well. San Diego St and Air Force should both be favored with points (AF loses by a FG); and South Alabama and Texas St shouldn't be getting as many points as they are - we have the Jaguars beating Idaho outright, although the heart takes the Vandals. Finally, we think U Mass covers at Hawaii (-9 is too high).
And it's PLAYOFF time in the FCS!
The first round of the 24-team "1-AA" playoffs start Saturday, and without local favorite Montana in it for the first time in forever, it'll be quiet around here! But here's how we see nine games on the 26th:
CAL POLY SLO by a half-point over San Diego of the Pioneer League (it'd be a first if a PFL team won!)
CHATTANOOGA by 14.5 over Weber State (a strong Southern conference this year!)
CHARLESTON SOUTHERN by a single point at Wofford (see previous comment)
LEHIGH by half a point AT New Hampshire (that's impressive for a Patriot team not named Fordham!)
RICHMOND by 17.5 over North Carolina A&T (thanks for coming back, MEAC! Now go home.)
VILLANOVA by 18 over St. Francis of Pennsylvania (the usual NEC beatdown, alas)
YOUNGSTOWN ST by ten over Samford (and if the Penguins get rolling...watch out!)
CENTRAL ARKANSAS by one point over Illinois State (most folks would see that as an upset, but having seen CAU play, I would beg to differ)
GRAMBLING ST by five over Southern (for the SWAC West title, and good luck to both bands!)
Next week, the winners of the eight first round games get (in seeding order) NORTH DAKOTA ST (#1 until someone knocks them off when it counts), EASTERN WASHINGTON (who beat Washington St in Sept!), JACKSONVILLE ST (who will beat an SEC team one of these years), JAMES MADISON (ran roughshod over the CAA), SAM HOUSTON ST (11-0), THE CITADEL (only loss was at North Carolina), NORTH DAKOTA (won the Big Sky) and SOUTH DAKOTA ST (beat NDSU earlier and gets a rematch if they both win next week!).
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