COLLEGE football is right around the corner!

In my distractions from working for the Lord's best interests, one of my side projects for you and this blog and my other writing gigs is the tracking of American style football - college, pro, and CFL.

The CFL is in mid-stride already, deep into its Week Five schedule with Edmonton sitting atop the nine-team field at 4-0 after beating Hamilton with a last-minute touchdown, 31-28. The Tiger-Cats are now last at 0-4. (Sorry, son. Sorry, Melissa... My eldest son's name is Hamilton, and my late wife's favorite teams are always the "Cats") Behind the Eskimos sits British Columbia (the Lions are 3-1 and host 2-1 Winnipeg tonight) and Calgary (the 2015 champs are 2-1-1 and awaiting 1-2 Saskatchewan tomorrow). Toronto, Montreal, and reigning Grey Cup champs Ottawa are all muddling along in the Eastern conference around or below .500, waiting for lightning to strike.

The NFL started training camps this past week, although in the modern game that doesn't mean a bunch of out-of-shape guys starting to train as much as it does bringing in your year-round fitness-training employees to teach them your team's way of doing things. (Four preseason games are too many. Cut it to three for starters, then eventually two. Just my opinion.)

But today, let's look at the upcoming Division One NCAA season, both "Bowl Subdivision" and "Championship Subdivision" (those are the NCAA terms).  

What I call them is divided a bit further: the FBS has the Power Five conferences (ACC, Big Ten, Big XII, Pac 12 and SEC) who control all the money; and the Group of Five conferences (AAC, C-USA, MAC, Mountain West, and Sun Belt), who do the best they can without the financial advantages of the other five conferences.

The FCS, too, has the conferences that actually DO compete for a "national" championship at their level (as the D2, D3, and NAIA schools do), and the three who are more "intramural" in their treatment of the game. The latter three include the Ivy League, which is serious about its academics: they don't play ANY games until Sept 16th, and then refuse to participate in any post-season at all. They also include the two conferences of "Historically Black Colleges", the MEAC and the SWAC. These two send their champions to meet each other in the Celebration Bowl to crown the HBC national champion (which seems completely reasonable to me, frankly!). If the MEAC has a second school which qualifies for the FCS bracket, as North Carolina A&T did last year, they'll let them participate.

The other conferences in the FCS really ARE in it for the championship playoffs: the Big Sky, the Big South, the Colonial, the Missouri Valley, the Northeast, the Ohio Valley, the Patriot League, the Pioneer League, the Southern, and the Southland conferences.

As 2017 begins, here are the "handicaps" (we've moved from tiers to handicaps, to match our other ELO-based grading systems) for the 66 Power Five schools, the top five conferences. The lower the number, just like in golf, the better the team is:

1. Alabama (10)  2. Ohio State (13)  3. Florida State (14)  4. Clemson, Oklahoma, and USC (15).
7. Penn State (16)   8. Washington (17)  9. Michigan, Auburn, and LSU (18).
12. Wisconsin and Oklahoma St (19). 14. Louisville and Stanford (20). 16. Florida & Georgia (21).
18. Miami-FL (22)   19. Virginia Tech & Tennessee (23). 21. Kansas State (24). 
22. Northwestern, Texas, West Virginia, Washington St, and Texas A&M (all 25).
27. NC St, Georgia Tech, TCU, Notre Dame, Oregon, Colorado, and Utah (all 26).
34. North Carolina, Pitt, Iowa, UCLA, and Arkansas (all 27).
39. Minnesota, Nebraska, BYU, Ole Miss (28). 43. Kentucky & Mississippi State (29).
45. Baylor and So Carolina (30). 47. Michigan St & Vanderbilt (31).
49. Indiana, Arizona State, and Missouri (32). 52. Wake Forest, Texas Tech, Oregon St, Arizona (33).
56. Boston College, Duke, Cal (34). 59. Syracuse, Maryland, and Iowa State (35).
62. Virginia and Illinois (37). 64. Purdue & Kansas (40). 66. Rutgers (42).

As you probably figured out, the conferences are color coded: Atlantic Coast, Big Ten, Big Twelve, Pac-12, and Southeastern. The two independents are left black. In theory, you can subtract one handicap from the other and get the point-differential on a neutral field under neutral conditions for a game between any two teams on these lists. But as with every pre-season list when you're dealing with youth in a set-up where there's about a 1/3 turnover every season, your results may vary!

Here are the similar rankings for the 64 schools in the Group of Five conferences: the American, Conference-USA, the Mid-American, the Mountain West, and the Sun Belt. 

1. South Florida (25). 2. Boise State (29). 3. Houston, Memphis, Toledo, & San Diego State (31).
7. Appalachian State (32).  8. UCF, Navy, Tulsa, & Western Kentucky (33).
12. Temple, Western Michigan, Colorado State, Wyoming, & Troy (34). 17. Louisiana Tech (35).
18. Arkansas State (36). 19. SMU, Miami-OH, Air Force, & Army (37).
23. East Carolina, Middle Tennessee, Old Dominion, Ohio, & New Mexico (38).
28. Cincinnati, Southern Miss, UTSA, Northern Illinois, & Hawai'i (39).
33. Tulane, Marshall, & Central Michigan (40).
36. Eastern Michigan, Nevada, Utah State, Georgia Southern, and Idaho (41).
41. U Conn, Akron, & South Alabama (42). 44. Bowling Green, Ball St, & UL-Lafayette (43).
47. FAU, FIU, Rice, Kent State, and San Jose State (44).
52. North Texas, Fresno State, UNLV, Coastal Carolina, and Georgia State (45).
57. UTEP, Buffalo, New Mexico State, and UL-Monroe (46). 61. Charlotte (47).
62. U Mass (48). 63. Texas State (49). 64. Alabama-Birmingham (50).

Finally, here are the handicaps in ranking order for ALL of the 124 FCS teams to start 2017:

1. North Dakota State (32).  2. James Madison (34).  
3. South Dakota St, Jacksonville St, & Sam Houston St (all 36).
6. Youngstown St & Wofford (37).
8. Eastern Washington, Charleston Southern, Richmond, & The Citadel (all 38).
12. North Dakota, Weber State, Illinois State, & Chattanooga (39).
16. Cal Poly SLO, Montana, Liberty, Villanova, & Central Arkansas (40).
21. New Hampshire, Northern Iowa, Samford (41). 24. Northern Arizona & McNeese St (42).
26. Kennesaw State & Grambling State (43).
28. Southern Utah, Albany, Western Illinois, Tennessee St, UT-Martin, Lehigh, Mercer, & Nicholls (44).
36. William & Mary, South Dakota, Eastern Illinois, Fordham, SE Louisiana, & Stephen F Austin (45).
42. Montana State, Northern Colorado, Southern Illinois, Tennessee Tech, San Diego, Furman, Penn, Princeton, and No Carolina A&T (46).
51. Delaware, Maine, Stony Brook, Colgate, Incarnate Word, Harvard, No Carolina Central, & Southern (47).
59. Portland State, Gardner-Webb, Indiana State, & Western Carolina (48).
63. Towson, Eastern Kentucky, Murray State, Dayton, Abilene Christian, Houston Baptist, Dartmouth, & Yale (49).
71. Missouri State, Duquesne, Holy Cross, Lamar, So Carolina St, & Prairie View A&M (50).
77. UC Davis, Monmouth, Bucknell, E Tennessee State (51).
81. Rhode Island, SE Missouri State, VMI, Northwestern State, Brown, & Cornell (52).
87. Presbyterian, St. Francis (PA), Lafayette, Drake, Bethune-Cookman, Hampton, & Alcorn St (53).
94. Sacramento St, Elon, Georgetown, Jacksonville, & Columbia (54).
99. Wagner, Marist, Florida A&M, Norfolk State, Alabama A&M, and Texas Southern (55).
105. Idaho State, Alabama State (56).
107. Central Connecticut St, Sacred Heart, Campbell, Morgan State, & Jackson State (57).
112. Morehead State, Howard, & Savannah State (58).
115. Bryant, Robert Morris, Austin Peay, Butler, & Delaware State (59).
120. Stetson, Valparaiso, & Mississippi Valley State (60).
123. Arkansas-Pine Bluff (61).
124. Davidson (62).

If you're looking for the extreme, consider Davidson's football team going to Tuscaloosa and playing Alabama on its home field, for their hypothetical season opener (so there are no other effects going on). The home team is usually assumed a three point advantage, so that means the 52-point spread between their current handicaps would expand to a prediction of a 55-point Crimson Tide victory. Roughly, for every eight points that a prediction is in error, we adjust the handicaps of the two teams by one. So, if Davidson were to hold Alabama to, say, a 47-point win, we would move Davidson's handicap DOWN one, and Alabama's UP one. 

In reality, by the way, especially in blowouts, we take a close look at the game circumstances - did 'Bama take a 49 point lead at halftime and play the towel boys in the second half? Or did Davidson really score a couple of times on even the second string D? Was there a QB injury that skewed the results? Were they teams rested, or is one of them on a short week and the other coming off of a bye? Is it REALLY a neutral site game, or is it one team's "backyard"? Those things matter to the results, and are taken into account. But if you want to play along, that's our general rule in the game of (American or Canadian) football: adjust handicaps by a factor of 1/8 in comparison to the expected outcome (after a 3-point home advantage).

I've expanded my work on "The Roar"...

...to include "US Sports" which is how the department is listed in the Australian news magazine. So, of course, my first article as an American on the US Sports page is about Canadian football.

Specifically, it addresses the rivalry between the Calgary Stampeders and the Ottawa Redblacks, and in doing so addresses the nature of rivalries in general. Here's the link to the version on the Roar, and following is the original text for the article:

There are rivalries and then there’s Calgary-Ottawa…

            Some rivalries are born of geography. Adelaide and Port Adelaide in the AFL, or the Edmonton / Calgary intrastate clashes in the Canadian Football League, or Duke and North Carolina in American college sports, with campuses just eight miles apart.

            Some are born from tradition and history. The Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears have played more games against each other than any two National Football League teams in history. Collingwood and Carlton have played 254 times, with the difference at this writing being just four wins in the Blues’ favor.

Competitiveness is a requirement. Here in Idaho, where I live, there used to be a great gridiron rivalry between the two largest universities in the state, Boise State and the University of Idaho. Once Boise’s football winning streak reached twelve in a row with the margins of victory increasing every year as Boise’s program grew in stature and Idaho was failing to find a conference who would keep them, the series stopped being scheduled in 2010. Not even the strongest alumni passions can overcome a lack of interest on the field.

Some rivalries are born because of some specific incident. In the NFL, the New England Patriots “stole” the head coach of the New York Jets about two decades ago. Bill Belechick was named the head coach of the New York Jets in 1997…for one day. Because he’d been notoriously a “back-up choice” for the Jets, the Patriots saw a chance to get themselves a new coach and embarrass their division competitors at the same time. They swooped in and hired Belechick before he could sign a contract with the Jets; twenty years later, he and the Patriots have won five Super Bowl titles, while the Jets have yet to return to the title game.

But the best rivalries are created on the field.

Mostly because division winners in the NFL always play each other during the following regular season, New England and Indianapolis played every season from 2003 through 2012. The reason those games became so enticing was the same reason they “happened” to appear on the schedule: the teams were led by two of the greatest American football quarterbacks ever, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. There were also three other contests in the playoffs between the teams and the men, and most of those 13 games were supremely memorable, not just for the heroics of the two superstar but for the twists and turns of the contests themselves.

Hawthorn and Geelong had both the “Kennett Curse” and the sheer excellence of the games they played through the early part of this decade. The GWS Giants and Western Bulldogs have started to build that kind of rivalry over the last year or so; so too the NBA’s Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers, having met in three consecutive and spectacular finals series, inspire that kind of rivalry.

In an odd quirk of the always-quirky-anyway Canadian Football League schedule, last year’s Grey Cup finalists met twice in a row to start the 2017 season these past two weeks, meaning they’ve now played their last three competitive games against each other. And then, they won’t see each other the rest of the season unless there happens to be a rematch of last year’s championship tilt in November.

Judging from the five games these two have played over the past twelve months, it’s hard to imagine anyone who doesn’t have a specific team they barrack for rooting for anything else but a Calgary Stampeder / Ottawa Redblacks reunion.

Calgary is the blueblood of the CFL, having won titles in 2008 and 2014 before rattling off fourteen straight wins last year to clinch the Western Conference top seed. They cruised past the team most thought their only real challenge, fellow Western power British Columbia, in the conference final last November. The Grey Cup game the next week against the 8-9-1 Eastern champion Ottawa Redblacks seemed like a formality, despite the fact that their first matchup of the season, back in July 2016, was the reason for the tie on each of their records. (Their second game, in Round 13, was all Calgary, 48-23.)

But the third-year expansion club led 27-7 lead after taking the opening kickoff of the second half down the field in six plays for a third touchdown. Calgary caught a break when the Redblacks fumbled on the first play of their next drive, and then score sixteen points on their next three possessions. When game Outstanding Player Henry Burris score a touchdown with six minutes to go, Ottawa held a ten point lead, and when they still had that lead with two minutes to go, it seemed they had the title wrapped up.

However, the Stampeders raced down the field, scored a quick touchdown in less than a minute, recovered the onside kick-off, and then kicked a field goal to tie the game and go into overtime. (The shoestring tackle by Abdul Kanneh on second and goal almost certainly prevented a Calgary victory.) Ernest Jackson’s juggling catch in overtime won the game for Ottawa, likely the biggest upset in Grey Cup history.

Apparently, the CFL expected the teams to top that game (and the hard-fought tie earlier in the year) with two games scheduled to open the season these past two weeks, a home-and-home series for the ages.

Surprisingly, the teams delivered.

First, Ottawa raised their championship banner and then went out and staged a near-perfect rerun of the title game, running out to a 28-14 lead before Calgary came back to tie the game with two touchdowns in the last seven minutes. Then the two flawlessly copied the ending of their regular season classic, both kicking field goals to end the game in a 31-31 tie.

In Round Two, the Stampeders finally got their way, winning an incredible game in Calgary 43-39. It was as back-and-forth as any game can be when Ottawa’s only lead came at 3-0. Every time Calgary scored to stretch the lead, the Redblacks scored right back to cut it back to one score. Big play after big play, outstanding skill outdone by the next outstanding skill. A great punt return TD by Ottawa in the first half matched by a great punt return TD by Calgary in the second. And every time you thought, “Well, Calgary finally put them away,” Ottawa scored on a long throw to change your mind.

Whether Ottawa’s genuinely one of the two best teams in the CFL is almost immaterial; when they play Calgary (who definitely IS), they play like they are. Four times of the five they’ve played in the last twelve months, these two teams have put on a show for the ages, and it wouldn’t be hard to make the argument that there wasn’t a single game including any other team in that time frame that matched any of those four.

When rivalries appear organically, they don’t always last. After the great GWS/Western Bulldogs prelim final last September and 75-73 rematch in April, we thought we had one in footy that would last for years. If the Bulldogs continue to flounder as they are, though, the rivalry may not even last until their next meeting in Round 21 in August.

So, savor these clashes when they happen, because unlike geographic rivalries, the organic ones flame out like the shooting stars they are, burning brightly while they’re aglow, leaving only memories when they’re gone.

So here's a topic we haven't had a reason to look at since Thanksgiving!

It's Canadian Football League time!

(But...but I was just getting the hang of the Australian version!)

The opening game of the 105th season of the CFL took place last night, with the Montreal Alouettes beating the Saskatchewan Roughriders 17-16. A funky ending to a close game when the Roughriders failed to score from up close at the end of the game...

That was just a warm-up for the game I'm listening to on TSN radio as I type - the Grey Cup rematch between the West Conference champion Calgary Stampeders (15-2-1, one of the great seasons in CFL history) and the East Conference champion Ottawa Redblacks (8-9-1, the first division champ ever with a losing record, for a team in its third year of existence). Given that set-up, of course, you've probably guessed that Ottawa won the championship last November in overtime, 39-33, after having a huge lead which Calgary made up the last ten points of within the last two minutes.

So tonight's game has a bit of  vengeance built in, especially when Ottawa raised their championship banner before the game. (The Stampeders stayed in the locker room during the ceremony, but still...) Ottawa did win a Grey Cup back in 1976 with a previous incarnation of a team - the CFL has gone through an interesting history of growth and shrinkage over the last three decades in particular - but this team is truly just in its fourth year. Year one - two wins, 16 losses. Year two? 12-6 and a trip to the championship game, where they lost to Edmonton 26-20. Last year, they returned to the finals and the rest is history.

If you're unfamiliar with the Canadian brand of professional football, you really should find some video and watch some.

Oh, wait! You could watch some highlights of that amazing Grey Cup game from last year right here!

Some of the details American-only fans will notice watching CFL football...

• There are twelve men on each side. But that's necessary, because...
• ...the field is significantly bigger. Much wider, it's also got twenty-yard deep end zones and 110 yards in the field of play (which means it has a 55-yard line - weird enough - and TWO 50-yard lines, which somehow scrunches my face up more!)
• There are only THREE downs to get ten yards, so punts happen on third down, so second down's the critical play in Canadian league play.
• Offensive player motion rules are MUCH more liberal! Multiple players can be in motion, and can even be running upfield as long as they haven't crossed the line of scrimmage before the snap!
• Kicking field goals is different for two reasons: the goal posts are on the GOAL line, like they used to be in the States, so attempts are ten yards more likely to succeed. In addition, there's the rouge, which is a single point given the kicking team if the ball does NOT come out of the end zone after ANY kick. So, no touchbacks - unless you're willing to give up the point. It's made for some very interesting end of game situations!

Watch this end game from 2010, with a 30-30 tie game between Montreal and Toronto, where a single point rouge would also make Montreal victorious... Then try to tell me that it's not worth your time watching a little bit of the northern pigskin with me!

Bet The “Under”

            Here’s a lesson in human nature that could make you some extra money…

Gambling is legal in Australia – in particular, sports betting is legal. (During the season I match my prediction ability with the oddsmakers at CrownBet, the leading licensed brokers for the land Down Under, just as I do with the Vegas lines on American sports.) And one of the standard betting parlays available before the season begins is the over-under on how many wins each team will accrue during the season. (Usually, this target number has a “half” on it, like 8 ½, so that there’s no “pushed” results – although in the NFL, there are already four teams with ties on their records, so that’s not a foolproof system.)

            I’ve been looking at the lines for the Aussie footy league for 2017 – GWS, being the favorite this year, has an over/under of 15.5 (they play 22 games, so that means a record of 15-7 is under their projection, and 16-6 is over). Similarly, the Brisbane Lions are the ‘favorite’ for the wooden spoon, a moniker for the last place finisher, and as such their over/under target is only 4 ½. (They won just three games last year.)

            Here’s the thing: the bettors there are doing the exact same thing EVERY league and EVERY broker and EVERY set of fans do. If you add up the over/under betting lines? There are more wins than there are games. It’s only by 2.5 in the AFL, but that’s enough to skew the results.

            What that means is on the average, every fan is optimistic, even when betting.

            So, if you want to make some easy money, here’s what I’d suggest: bet the under for EVERY team, all eighteen. I have no idea which ones will win and which won’t (alright, I have some hunches – bet the under for Brisbane), but it seems like it should be almost impossible for more teams to come in OVER versus the number that come in UNDER. The only way that happens, mathematically, is if four or five teams all come in way under, leaving the rest of the wins to be spread evenly among the other teams. It might happen – but then again it’s just as likely to work in your favor, too, where a few big winners hit the over and leave a dozen or so teams under their mark.

And all of this is true regardless of what league it is – NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL; it doesn’t matter. In the CFL season just concluded, the nine team league had a similar 2.5 game optimism from its bettors, which for the mathematically inclined means it was twice as severe with only half the teams to spread that difference among. Not surprisingly, six teams were UNDER their projections, and only three teams were OVER. You would have made a 33% profit on your investment. I went back and ran the same simulation on last year's AFL predictions: three pushes (teams won exactly what was expected) and the rest broke 8-7 in our favor. So, a 5.6% return on investment. Better than nothing!

(I’d double check before I bet to be sure, and here’s how you do that – add up all the projected win totals, and divide the total by the number of teams in the league. This should be exactly HALF of the number of games each team plays – because for every win, there’s also a loss. If it’s HIGHER than that ‘half’ number, you’ve got yourself an optimistic bunch of bettors – go with the UNDER across the board. Theoretically, it could be LOWER instead, in which case you could bet the OVER across the board for the same results.)

            But regardless, as Suzanne Collins might write, “the odds would be ever in your favor”!

We interrupt this story for a Thanksgiving weekend football update and prayer...

Lord, we thank You for the leisure time to spend reading (and writing!) this blog to know more about You, to amuse ourselves with lesser topics, and to communicate with our fellow readers through comments and the like. Thank You for Your Love, for the sunrises and sunsets, the air we breathe and the earth we live on. Thank You for family, friends, faith, frivolity and a future completely under Your control. In Jesus' precious name, Amen.

CFL Grey Cup Sunday 
   ...is a return of last year's upstart, as Ottawa managed to subdue a hot Edmonton 35-23, against the heavyweight favorite, many-time CFL champion Calgary, which annihilated the second-best team of the year (BC Lions) 42-15 to make the Grey Cup a possible coronation. (But that's what most people would happen a week ago Tuesday, too. That's why we play the games!) Regardless, we're taking the Stampeders to take it as expected, by nine points.

NFL Thanksgiving Weekend
   ...has some curious matchups, some that our FOLLOWING FOOTBALL computations completely disagree with the oddsters on! Here are the weird ones...take 'em or leave 'em, but we lost slightly last week and trail very slightly over the course of the year:
   VEGAS HAS: Atlanta over Arizona by four (we have it by one); Baltimore over Cincinnati by 4.5 (we have it even); Buffalo over Jax by 7.5 (we think they'll win by 13!); Tennessee over Chicago by 3.5 (we take the Bears for the win!); Philly over the Packers by 3.5 (we like 'em by six); the Patriots over the Jets by nine (Brady's gimpy - we see it being a six point game, as much as we've been stung betting against Belechick this year); New Orleans over the Rams by seven (the FF matrix says four, though I'm not personally sure about this one); and Oakland over Carolina by four (FF says one...I'd love to take this, but I disagree with taking the Panthers here. Sorry).

The final weekend of the FBS season!   
   ...and there are some INCREDIBLE games on tap this Friday and Saturday! We're already 3-0 with our early week MAC picks, and looking forward to betting Western Michigan straight up but Toledo with the points in the MAC West championship Friday! Here are the rest of our significant picks...
    IN the ACC/SEC rivalry games, take Clemson and Georgia to win and cover; Florida and Kentucky to cover and lose. Some of the major games we have right on the odds lines (as of Tuesday) - OSU a TD favorite over Michigan, North Carolina 11.5 over NC St, Baylor by five over TexTech, Oregon and AzState by a field goal over their instate rivals, Ole Miss by a little more than one TD over MissSt and 'Bama by 16-17 over Auburn (and probably all other comers the rest of the season).
   We do like Michigan St to cover against Penn St (not win, though), and the same for Minnesota (v. Wisconsin) and Notre Dame (v USC). OUR numbers give TCU an edge over Texas, but with Strong's imminent firing I wouldn't bet that game with ANYONE'S money, certainly not mine. Cal is even with 3-pt favorite UCLA in our book, and we like A&M to cover against LSU, maybe even win. As much as we root for Chris Petersen, our favorite western coach (Mark Richt in the East, BTW), we have the Apple Cup as a virtual tossup, not the UW victory oddsmakers are expecting.
   In the AAC, we'll bet Memphis to cover and (flip) maybe win, and UConn, Navy, and Tulsa get our bets as well. San Diego St and Air Force should both be favored with points (AF loses by a FG); and South Alabama and Texas St shouldn't be getting as many points as they are - we have the Jaguars beating Idaho outright, although the heart takes the Vandals. Finally, we think U Mass covers at Hawaii (-9 is too high).

And it's PLAYOFF time in the FCS!
    The first round of the 24-team "1-AA" playoffs start Saturday, and without local favorite Montana in it for the first time in forever, it'll be quiet around here! But here's how we see nine games on the 26th:
CAL POLY SLO by a half-point over San Diego of the Pioneer League (it'd be a first if a PFL team won!)
CHATTANOOGA by 14.5 over Weber State (a strong Southern conference this year!)
CHARLESTON SOUTHERN by a single point at Wofford (see previous comment)
LEHIGH by half a point AT New Hampshire (that's impressive for a Patriot team not named Fordham!)
RICHMOND by 17.5 over North Carolina A&T (thanks for coming back, MEAC! Now go home.)
VILLANOVA by 18 over St. Francis of Pennsylvania (the usual NEC beatdown, alas)
YOUNGSTOWN ST by ten over Samford (and if the Penguins get rolling...watch out!)
CENTRAL ARKANSAS by one point over Illinois State (most folks would see that as an upset, but having seen CAU play, I would beg to differ)
GRAMBLING ST by five over Southern (for the SWAC West title, and good luck to both bands!)
   Next week, the winners of the eight first round games get (in seeding order) NORTH DAKOTA ST (#1 until someone knocks them off when it counts), EASTERN WASHINGTON (who beat Washington St in Sept!), JACKSONVILLE ST (who will beat an SEC team one of these years), JAMES MADISON (ran roughshod over the CAA), SAM HOUSTON ST (11-0), THE CITADEL (only loss was at North Carolina), NORTH DAKOTA (won the Big Sky) and SOUTH DAKOTA ST (beat NDSU earlier and gets a rematch if they both win next week!).

     

(Before we get back into the important stuff, let's wrap up the football for a few days...)

HERE are the results from our picks for last week's games, and some quick hitters for the week to come. (And then we can get off football for a while, except for one story from Australia I'd like to share with you sometime soon.)

ACC) Got Duke over UNC correct, missed Virginia covering against Miami. (But that's ok, because I like Miami's coach Mark Richt, the most devout Christian in the business. Watching his new team do better than his old team is a delight I shouldn't feel as a forgiving Christian...)
Big Ten) Everyone missed Iowa over Michigan, including us.
Big XII) We thought Texas might pull the upset, and they almost did. Almost.
Pac-12) Missed UW's loss, like everyone else. 
SEC) We were wrong on Arkansas over LSU, but we nailed Tex A&M within a point of Ole Miss.

AAC) Wrong on Memphis over USF (but they did beat the spread), and right on Navy winning, although by game time the odds had shifted in their favor as well.
Conf USA) Great results for us here: Charlotte only lost by one (Rice had to come back with two late TDs to win), and Marshall won big over MTSU.
MWC) So much for our overhyped spreads for San Diego St and Boise St. They won by a combined 66 points this weekend.
Sun Belt) Wrong across the board! (Yay us!) OVERALL, we went 18-34 against the Vegas lines last week. Sucky.
But we DID go 12-4 in our FCS picks this week (Weber St, Tenn Tech, Wofford, and Cornell won against our picks).

IN THE CANADIAN FOOTBALL LEAGUE PLAYOFFS...we went two-for-two, although both games were closer than we thought: Edmonton (24-21 winners over Hamilton) now go to Ottawa on Sunday, and British Columbia (32-31 winners over Winnipeg) goes to Calgary; the winners face on the 27th in the Grey Cup for all the snowballs.

AND in the NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE, we went 7-5, and except for the unique ending in New Orleans would've been 8-4! (A blocked kick converted for a game winning two point conversion? Never seen that anywhere before, let alone it being a first in NFL history!)

AS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...

CANADA - Edmonton over Ottawa 24-17, and Calgary over BC 31-23.
NFL - We actually agree on the winners of every game this week (caveat: Vegas has the Arizona/Minnesota game as EVEN; we think the Vikes are one point favorites). Discrepancies over a point from the current (Tues morning) Vegas consensus are as follows:
Dallas over Baltimore (+7; we have the Cowboys at +9); Carolina over New Orleans (+3; take the points); Detroit over Jacksonville (+6.5; we have the spread at eleven!); KC @ TB (+7.5; we have the Chiefs by ten); and Washington over Green Bay (+2.5, but we have it at one).

FBS schools - Here are the games where our point spreads differ significantly from the professionals...of course, after last week, that probably means we're wrong...
ACC) We see FSU@ Syracuse (+21 in Vegas) and Louisville @ Houston (+14) as much closer than they do (we have FSU -12 and Clemson -3.5). We also are picking NC State over Miami (-3), although as mentioned earlier, our heart's not in it. Finally, we have Notre Dame a six point fave, not one. 
Big Ten) We agree with the chalk here, although we see NW@ Minnesota (+1) as a tossup.
Big XII) Vegas likes K-State over Baylor by 2.5; we see the Bears as TD favorites. Curiously, we have the two biggest games (OU/WV and TCU/OSU) exactly as the oddsmakers do (-3 for OU, -4.5 for TCU).
Pac 12) No disagreements; just wanted to point out that Oregon St is actually a favorite this week, over Arizona.
SEC) The rescheduled Florida@LSU game, where the Gators gave up a home date AND the home game against LSU, is listed as the Tigers by two TDs; we see it at one. Also, we like Arkansas over Mississippi St (-1.5).
MAC) Tonight, Vegas has Ohio (-1) at Central Michigan; we have it even. Tomorrow, we;re taking upstart Eastern Michigan over Northern Illinois (-3) in the upset!
MWC) We actually see three upsets in the Mountain West this weekend (neither San Diego nor Boise is involved, however): we like Fresno St (+2.5) against Hawaii, Nevada (+6) versus Utah State, and Colorado St over UNM.
SunBelt) Finally, we think Georgia St can pull off one last upset this season over rival Georgia Southern (-2.5).

Lots of rivalry games in this last regular season weekend for the FCS schools before the playoffs start (PLAYOFFS? What a novel concept!). All these odds are from FOLLOWING FOOTBALL's computer...

Big Sky - Eastern Washington (-8) can clinch a tie with idle North Dakota for the title with a win over Portland St.
Big South - Liberty's 4-1 in conference; the winner of the Charleston Southern (-16)/Kennesaw St game joins them there.
Colonial - James Madison wraps up an 8-0 conference with a win over Elon (+35). [But UNH@ Maine (+2), Stony Brook @ Albany (-3), and Richmond @ William&Mary (+8) should all be great games!]
Missouri Valley - THE conference in FCS is still North Dakota St's to win, with a victory over South Dakota (+11.5). SDSU can share the title by beating Northern Iowa (+7).
NEC - St. Francis (-1.5) can win the conference Saturday with a win at Wagner.
Ohio Valley - The game of the season: Jacksonville St (-13) hosts UT-Martin for the title.
Patriot - Lehigh (-19.5) faces rival Lafayette in hopes of finishing a 6-0 conference slate.
Pioneer - Similarly, San Diego hopes to finish 8-0 and win the auto-bid with a win over Campbell (+14.5).
Southern - Liberty's already won the conference with an 8-0 record, but puts its perfect season in jeopardy at North Carolina(-16) this weekend. 
Southland - The game of the season: Sam Houston St (-4) hosts Central Arkansas for the title. Both 8-0 in conference, both playoff bound regardless.
Ivy League - Yale@Harvard (-16.5). The Game. And then that's it - the Ivy League chooses to then go back to class and not bother with the peon playoffs...
MEAC - Again, the "game of the season"! North Carolina A&T (-7) at North Carolina Central, Both 7-0 in conference, but only one goes to the "Celebration Bowl" against the SWAC titlist.
SWAC - NEXT week is the "game of the season", as usual, between Southern and Grambling St, but Alcorn St (-9) at Jackson St should be pretty good this Saturday, too!

Quick hits on the rectangular grids for this weekend

ACC) We like Duke at home against UNC with the points (Carolina's favored by 10.5), and Virginia to cover a ten point spread at home against Miami. Otherwise, we like favorites Clemson, FSU, Louisville, NC St, and Va Tech.

Big Ten) No real issues here - our favorites are the same as everyone else's: Michigan, OSU, MSU, PSU, Nebraska, NW, and the Badgers.

Big XII) Same as Vegas: we'll take Iowa St, OK, OSU, and Texas over WV by 1.5 for the win.

Pac-12) Again, no shockers here: our predicted winners are Stanford (-2 at Oregon), Washington, Wazzu, Colorado, Utah, and UCLA. 

SEC) FOLLOWING FOOTBALL predicts two upsets in the Southeast: We like Arkansas at home over LSU (-7.5), and Texas A&M by half a point over Ole Miss when they're favored by ten. (Not quite an upset, but you see what we mean...). Otherwise, we like Florida, Missouri, Tennessee, Alabama, and Auburn.

AAC) Two upsets predicted here: we like Memphis over USF (favored by three), and Navy over Tulsa (favored by 1.5). We also think Cincinnati will stay close to UCF, who's favored by 12.5. Houston and East Carolina should both win as predicted.

 Conf USA) Our model doesn't entirely realize how weak Marshall is, or how good Charlotte is this year. But if you believe our model, Marshall's favored to cover against Middle Tennessee, and Charlotte's margin over Rice is only three on our board, instead of 10.5. I can't guarantee these two predictions, to be honest - but I do think MTSU and Charlotte win this weekend, as well as FAU, Old Dominion, WKU, and La Tech.

MAC) Most of these games were played the last two days. (What if you were at the WMU/Kent State game, which took place while the meat of the election count took place?) The only game left has Miami over Buffalo.

MWC) As we've said before, Vegas likes the winners - they have SDSU and Boise favored by an extra TD or two every week, and they do again. Betting against the spread with those teams over the long haul isn't a bad idea. The other winners should be Wyoming, USU, and Air Force.

Sun Belt) Interesting games this week: we like App St over Troy (even), Ark St big over NMSU, Georgia St big over ULM, Georgia Southern over ULL, and Texas St covers but loses to Idaho (-7.5).

HIGHLIGHTED FCS games) Undefeated North Dakota (-2) over Northern Arizona; Cal Poly (-1.5) at Weber St; Northern Iowa (-6) at Western Illinois; SDSU over rival South Dakota (+11.5); a huge game with James Madison (-2) at Villanova; and a tossup with William&Mary @ Towson; Abilene Christian @ SE Louisiana (-6); Nicholls St @ Central Ark (-19); the big Harvard @ Penn (-3) game for the Ivy lead; and Columbia (-2.5) over Cornell; the Citadel to remain unbeaten (-16) against VMI; Chattanooga and Furman are both 8 point favorites in the Southern conference; Southern is a one point pick at Prairie View A&M in the SWAC West; we're favoring Duquesne by 6.5 in a critical game against Sacred Heart in the NEC, and Wagner @ Robert Morris is projected dead even; the Tennessee Tech @ Tennessee St rivalry has State as a TD favorite; and finally, we're looking forward to the Charleston Southern @ Liberty game in the Big South, which will go a long way towards determining that conference champ with Coastal Carolina out of the way [the Chanticleers are meandering their way into the FBS ranks for next year and with their increased scholarships are ineligible for FCS hardware this season - so far they are 7-2 this season, and should join the Sun Belt in 2017 with some gusto!]

IN THE CANADIAN FOOTBALL LEAGUE PLAYOFFS...

Edmonton @ Hamilton (eastern conference) - we like the Edmonton Eskimos on the road, 34-29. Hamilton's struggled to put good games together all season, and the Esks are riding high right now.
Winnipeg @ BC Lions (western conference) - BC Place in Vancouver's a hard road win - it's a dome, it's loud, and it was a long trip getting there. The Blue Bombers have had a great season, but we'll take the BC Lions at home, 35-27.

The eastern winner goes to Ottawa next week; the western winner plays at Calgary. The two victors of those games go to the 104th Grey Cup on November 27th. (Bet Calgary right now.)

AND FINALLY, in the NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE:

Let's run 'em down! Arizona (-13.5 on FOLLOWING FOOTBALL; -16 in Vegas yesterday) over SF... Baltimore (-10 and -10) tonight over Cleveland... Carolina (-3 from FF, -2 Vegas) over KC...here's one upset: we like New Orleans (-2.5 from us; +3 in Vegas!) at home versus punchless Denver... Green Bay (-2.5, -6) at Tennessee....Houston (- 1.5 and - 4) at Jacksonville... NY Giants (-2 from FF, even in Vegas) over Cincy... the NY Jets (-1.5 and - 5) over LA at home...Philly (even on our board, -1 in Vegas) over Atlanta...Pittsburgh (-2.5 from our computer, -1 from Nevada's) over Dallas, although personally I'd ride Dak Prescott in this game... San Diego by 4 on FF, and by 7 from the pros, over Miami... Tampa Bay by half a point to a full point over Chicago...and finally, we'll take Washington (-3, +1) over Minnesota this week.

Here's hoping we do better this week than last! It was a good example why you should treat this as recreation instead of money making!