Tuesday, November 15, 2016

(Before we get back into the important stuff, let's wrap up the football for a few days...)

HERE are the results from our picks for last week's games, and some quick hitters for the week to come. (And then we can get off football for a while, except for one story from Australia I'd like to share with you sometime soon.)

ACC) Got Duke over UNC correct, missed Virginia covering against Miami. (But that's ok, because I like Miami's coach Mark Richt, the most devout Christian in the business. Watching his new team do better than his old team is a delight I shouldn't feel as a forgiving Christian...)
Big Ten) Everyone missed Iowa over Michigan, including us.
Big XII) We thought Texas might pull the upset, and they almost did. Almost.
Pac-12) Missed UW's loss, like everyone else. 
SEC) We were wrong on Arkansas over LSU, but we nailed Tex A&M within a point of Ole Miss.

AAC) Wrong on Memphis over USF (but they did beat the spread), and right on Navy winning, although by game time the odds had shifted in their favor as well.
Conf USA) Great results for us here: Charlotte only lost by one (Rice had to come back with two late TDs to win), and Marshall won big over MTSU.
MWC) So much for our overhyped spreads for San Diego St and Boise St. They won by a combined 66 points this weekend.
Sun Belt) Wrong across the board! (Yay us!) OVERALL, we went 18-34 against the Vegas lines last week. Sucky.
But we DID go 12-4 in our FCS picks this week (Weber St, Tenn Tech, Wofford, and Cornell won against our picks).

IN THE CANADIAN FOOTBALL LEAGUE PLAYOFFS...we went two-for-two, although both games were closer than we thought: Edmonton (24-21 winners over Hamilton) now go to Ottawa on Sunday, and British Columbia (32-31 winners over Winnipeg) goes to Calgary; the winners face on the 27th in the Grey Cup for all the snowballs.

AND in the NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE, we went 7-5, and except for the unique ending in New Orleans would've been 8-4! (A blocked kick converted for a game winning two point conversion? Never seen that anywhere before, let alone it being a first in NFL history!)

AS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...

CANADA - Edmonton over Ottawa 24-17, and Calgary over BC 31-23.
NFL - We actually agree on the winners of every game this week (caveat: Vegas has the Arizona/Minnesota game as EVEN; we think the Vikes are one point favorites). Discrepancies over a point from the current (Tues morning) Vegas consensus are as follows:
Dallas over Baltimore (+7; we have the Cowboys at +9); Carolina over New Orleans (+3; take the points); Detroit over Jacksonville (+6.5; we have the spread at eleven!); KC @ TB (+7.5; we have the Chiefs by ten); and Washington over Green Bay (+2.5, but we have it at one).

FBS schools - Here are the games where our point spreads differ significantly from the professionals...of course, after last week, that probably means we're wrong...
ACC) We see FSU@ Syracuse (+21 in Vegas) and Louisville @ Houston (+14) as much closer than they do (we have FSU -12 and Clemson -3.5). We also are picking NC State over Miami (-3), although as mentioned earlier, our heart's not in it. Finally, we have Notre Dame a six point fave, not one
Big Ten) We agree with the chalk here, although we see NW@ Minnesota (+1) as a tossup.
Big XII) Vegas likes K-State over Baylor by 2.5; we see the Bears as TD favorites. Curiously, we have the two biggest games (OU/WV and TCU/OSU) exactly as the oddsmakers do (-3 for OU, -4.5 for TCU).
Pac 12) No disagreements; just wanted to point out that Oregon St is actually a favorite this week, over Arizona.
SEC) The rescheduled Florida@LSU game, where the Gators gave up a home date AND the home game against LSU, is listed as the Tigers by two TDs; we see it at one. Also, we like Arkansas over Mississippi St (-1.5).
MAC) Tonight, Vegas has Ohio (-1) at Central Michigan; we have it even. Tomorrow, we;re taking upstart Eastern Michigan over Northern Illinois (-3) in the upset!
MWC) We actually see three upsets in the Mountain West this weekend (neither San Diego nor Boise is involved, however): we like Fresno St (+2.5) against Hawaii, Nevada (+6) versus Utah State, and Colorado St over UNM.
SunBelt) Finally, we think Georgia St can pull off one last upset this season over rival Georgia Southern (-2.5).

Lots of rivalry games in this last regular season weekend for the FCS schools before the playoffs start (PLAYOFFS? What a novel concept!). All these odds are from FOLLOWING FOOTBALL's computer...

Big Sky - Eastern Washington (-8) can clinch a tie with idle North Dakota for the title with a win over Portland St.
Big South - Liberty's 4-1 in conference; the winner of the Charleston Southern (-16)/Kennesaw St game joins them there.
Colonial - James Madison wraps up an 8-0 conference with a win over Elon (+35). [But UNH@ Maine (+2), Stony Brook @ Albany (-3), and Richmond @ William&Mary (+8) should all be great games!]
Missouri Valley - THE conference in FCS is still North Dakota St's to win, with a victory over South Dakota (+11.5). SDSU can share the title by beating Northern Iowa (+7).
NEC - St. Francis (-1.5) can win the conference Saturday with a win at Wagner.
Ohio Valley - The game of the season: Jacksonville St (-13) hosts UT-Martin for the title.
Patriot - Lehigh (-19.5) faces rival Lafayette in hopes of finishing a 6-0 conference slate.
Pioneer - Similarly, San Diego hopes to finish 8-0 and win the auto-bid with a win over Campbell (+14.5).
Southern - Liberty's already won the conference with an 8-0 record, but puts its perfect season in jeopardy at North Carolina(-16) this weekend. 
Southland - The game of the season: Sam Houston St (-4) hosts Central Arkansas for the title. Both 8-0 in conference, both playoff bound regardless.
Ivy League - Yale@Harvard (-16.5). The Game. And then that's it - the Ivy League chooses to then go back to class and not bother with the peon playoffs...
MEAC - Again, the "game of the season"! North Carolina A&T (-7) at North Carolina Central, Both 7-0 in conference, but only one goes to the "Celebration Bowl" against the SWAC titlist.
SWAC - NEXT week is the "game of the season", as usual, between Southern and Grambling St, but Alcorn St (-9) at Jackson St should be pretty good this Saturday, too!

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