My pointless re-shuffling of the FBS conferences!

Everyone seems to have an opinion on the national playoff system and how unfair the conference set-ups are. Power Five conferences can't decide on whether having eight conference games or nine is the better set-up; Group of Five conferences complain that they can't get a fair shake no matter how many games they play in or out of conference. Should you have a conference title game? Should you not have that "13th data point"?

And most pressing of all: scheduling parity. How can you fairly determine the two/four/eight/sixteen best teams if they play such disparate schedules? If Alabama plays, say, Mercer, instead of a ninth conference opponent, is that fair? Is it equitable for Ohio State and Oklahoma to play an early season high stakes game, knowing that seeing a straight number (or, God forbid, a squiggly one!) in the loss column spells doom for your playoff chances? If UCF or Boise State or any other G5 school has eight or nine games required against other G5 schools in their own conference, how could they possibly play a schedule of comparable difficulty to, say, an SEC or Pac-12 school?

There is a solution. It will never be implemented, and there's no point in even elucidating reasons beyond the single word, "money". But it's fun to consider, so here we go! 

Welcome to the SBAC - the Smarter Balanced Athletic Conferences! I've divided the 130 FBS teams into fourteen conferences of 9-10 teams each. (I tried having 13 conferences of ten, and that may still be the better plan, but I struggled to make the alliances coalesce.) Each conference has at least four Power 5 teams in it, and at least four Group of 5 teams in it. (There are exceptions: one with three P5 but some strong G5 teams in it; three with three G5 teams but several weaker P5 schools.) The travel costs have also been brought back in line - West Virginia is not in a Texan conference; C-USA no longer stretches across the country.

Each conference will play eight conference games, four home/four road. (The ten-team conferences rotate each year which teams fail to play each other.) The other four games on the schedule may contain no more than one FCS school, but because that's the money that allows some of those programs to survive, I don't want to wipe those off the board completely. There are various other restrictions we could add to those non-con games, such as requiring one true road game or ensuring that the G5 schools get real games, but those are for down the road.

Now, eliminate the conference title games. Instead, play a 16-team playoff bracket: fourteen conference champions, plus two wild cards determined by committee (which is how all the other divisions do it anyway). I would allow the other schools with six wins play in bowl games, personally - if you want to call the first round bowl games, like we do now with the CFP, fine. But only eight teams will play more than 13 games in a season now (this season, 13 teams played more than 13 games in the FBS). Four will play 14, two will play 15, and the two finalists play 16. They'll survive. The FCS schools like North Dakota State and James Madison seem to do just fine. 

Without further ado, here are my conference breakdowns:

NEW ENGLAND CONFERENCE: Army-West Point, *Boston College, Buffalo, U-Conn, U-Mass, *Penn State, *Pitt, *Rutgers, *Syracuse, Temple. (5 P5, 5 G5 schools.)
OHIO CONFERENCE: Bowling Green, Kent State, *Indiana, Marshall, Miami-Ohio, *Notre Dame, Ohio U, *Ohio State, *Purdue, *West Virginia. (5 P5, 5 G5 schools.)
GREAT LAKES CONFERENCE: Akron, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, *Michigan, *Michigan State, *Minnesota, Toledo, Western Michigan, *Wisconsin. (4 PF, 5 G5 schools.)
MIDWEST CONFERENCE: Ball State, Cincinnati, *Illinois, *Iowa, *Iowa State, *Nebraska, *Missouri, Northern Illinois, *Northwestern. (6 P5, 3 G5 schools.)
MID-ATLANTIC CONFERENCE: Appalachian State, East Carolina, *Kentucky, *Louisville, *Maryland, Navy, *Virginia, *Virginia Tech, Western Kentucky. (5 P5, 4 G5 schools.)
CAROLINA CONFERENCE: *Duke, Memphis, Middle Tennessee State, *North Carolina, *North Carolina State, Old Dominion, *Tennessee, *Vanderbilt, *Wake Forest. (6 P5, 3 G5 schools.)
PLANTATION CONFERENCE: Charlotte, Coastal Carolina, *Clemson, *Georgia, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, *Georgia Tech, *South Carolina, [Liberty upon ascension]. (4 P5, 5-6 G5.)
PANHANDLE CONFERENCE: Central Florida, *Florida, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, *Florida State, South Alabama, South Florida, *Miami-FL, Troy. (3 P5, 6 G5 schools.)
DEEP SOUTH CONFERENCE: *Alabama, *Auburn, Louisiana Tech, *Mississippi State, *Ole Miss, Southern Miss, Tulane, UAB, UL-Lafayette, UL-Monroe. (4 P5, 6 G5 schools.)
GULF COAST CONFERENCE: *Arkansas, Arkansas State, Houston, *LSU, Rice, *Texas, *Texas A&M, Texas State, UT-San Antonio. (4 P5, 5 G5 schools.)
LONE STAR CONFERENCE: *Baylor, North Texas, *Oklahoma, *Oklahoma State, SMU, *TCU, *Texas Tech, Tulsa, UTEP. (5 P5, 4 G5 schools.)
ROCKY MOUNTAIN CONFERENCE: Air Force, BYU, *Colorado, Colorado State, *Kansas, *Kansas State, New Mexico, New Mexico State, *Utah, Utah State. (4 P5, 6 G5 schools.)
CALIFORNIA CONFERENCE: *Arizona, *Arizona State, *Cal-Berkeley, Fresno State, San Diego State, San Jose State, *Stanford, *USC, *UCLA. (6 P5, 3 G5 schools.)
NORTHWEST CONFERENCE: Boise State, Hawai'i, [Idaho], Nevada-Reno, *Oregon, *Oregon State, UNLV, *Washington, *Washington State, Wyoming. (4 P5 schools, 5-6 G5 schools.)

Trying to balance conferences is a futile task. I tried to look at a program's history and potential - for example, the Panhandle conference only has the three Power Five schools, but it's hard to look at FAU, FIU, UCF, and USF and not think that's going to be a powerhouse conference. Similarly, the Carolina conference may have six P5 teams, but Vandy and Wake and Duke aren't exactly powerhouse programs. I'm worried about the California conference doing what the Pac-12 already does - cannibalize itself - but with our playoff format, that won't be as important. Every conference has a rep in the playoff. Simple. 

So, out of curiosity, what would this have looked like in 2017? 

Our fourteen champs and two wild cards might have been (in the order above) - Penn State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Virginia Tech, North Carolina State, Clemson (+Georgia), UCF, Auburn (+Alabama), LSU, Oklahoma, Kansas State, USC, and Washington.

If we went by the CFP committee final rankings, then we'd have these seedings:

#1 Clemson v. #16 Kansas State
#8 USC v. #9 Penn State
#4 Alabama v. #13 Northwestern
#5 Ohio State v #12 LSU
#2 Oklahoma v #15 North Carolina State
#7 Auburn v #10 Washington
#3 Georgia v #14 Virginia Tech
#6 Wisconsin v #11 UCF

...and then do what you want with that tournament. (Here's something to debate, though: Auburn would have been the Deep South champion, right? They defeated Alabama. Would they have to therefore have a higher seed than the Tide? Or would you be ok with the wild card Alabama being seeded higher than its conference champ Auburn?)

But every team has a shot at the tournament: win your conference, and you're in. Local rivalries flourish, balanced schedules raise all boats, and with four non-con games, you can still have your OSU-Michigan rivalry games and so forth.

In a more realistic vein, the argument for an eight-team playoff actually gained some traction in my mind this bowl season for the very first time - I've been a four-team proponent forever, unless you're going to go the route I just went and have it match every other sport in intercollegiate athletics! But if you go to an eight-team playoff, and then guarantee six of the spots: the five Power Five champs, and the Group of Five highest ranked team. Add in the next two best teams, and I'll go for that. It does the essential thing that my system does: it guarantees every team a SHOT at the title. Maybe UCF doesn't beat Auburn, and then Georgia, and THEN Alabama. But wouldn't it be interesting to find out if they could? Some years, that G5 team goes out in round one. Let the Power conferences laugh. But so far in the CFP years, those G5 teams are 3-1. Since the BCS era began, the G5 teams are 7-3 against the big boys in the major bowl games, plus another win and loss when the cowardly BCS committee had two "BCS buster" teams (TCU and Boise State), so they scheduled them against each other so none of their precious major conference teams would be beaten by these undefeated powerhouses. (For the record, BSU beat the Frogs, 17-10, in a hard-fought game that should have scared the other big boys.)

And that is why you're not going to see that expansion for at least a few more years. (The current format is contracted for six more years, by the way.) The money can only be split so many ways before the haves complain about having to share with the have-nots. Just look at the Congressional tax scam bill to see the proof. But if they were subject to the NCAA the way every other sport and every other division was, something like my plan would have been implemented a long time ago.

So, I'll continue to dream of the day when everyone has a fair shot. The teams and even the conferences in the FCS may not be equal, but every team has a chance to win the national title. (Except the Ivy League. They're too good to associate with the peons who keep playing in December.)
Central Connecticut State plays in a really weak league, the Northeast Conference. Their ELO-rating of 55 would be last place in four other conferences in the FCS. But they won the NEC, so they get to go to the national tournament and give it their best shot! Can Troy? Can Toledo? Can Boise? Heck, can UCF?

No. Not under the current system. There are 65 teams in all of collegiate and professional sports which have literally zero opportunity to win its championship. They're all the Group of Five teams in division 1 college football. Every other team in every other sport is at least theoretically eligible to be the champion (barring specific ineligibility issues, like rules violations). Is that fair? Of course not.

Let's give the SBAC a try! Or...at least, let the G5 champion have a shot at the title!

From Facebook - two posts on football

From January 13th:

I post this not because of Red Grange, although anyone without an image of the Galloping Ghost needs to see this.

No, I post it because of the reader: the greatest college football announcer ever, IMO. Keith Jackson passed away last night, at the age of 89. His last game, fittingly, was arguably the greatest game ever played: the 2006 BCS Championship in the Rose Bowl. Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush, Vince Young’s 4th and five romp to win the game for Texas over USC.

[Red Grange video]

From January 16th:

This is a pretty comprehensive list of the fifteen greatest "sudden" plays in NFL playoff history. I lean towards the Super Bowl plays as the "greatest", generally, and would probably include some slightly less dramatic ones (Montana to Taylor against the Bengals in the "Hey look, there's John Candy!" Super Bowl comes to mind) because of that. But it's otherwise hard to argue with this list. Which one's THE GREATEST? You choose your criteria - explain it if you feel the need - and let us know your pick in the comments.

Fifteen greatest plays in NFL playoff history

The Act II Mega-Bowl-Forecast Post Is Finally Here!

   Yes, it’s finally time to put our figurative neck on the line and make our selections for the winners of not only the 37 “meaningless exhibition” bowl games in the FBS (“football BOWL subdivision”) but also their two championship semifinals and the national championship games; PLUS the semis in the FCS and the finals in Divisions 2 and 3 college football!
   (By the way, in the spirit of anti-commercialism, we won’t be putting all the sponsor names on the. Owls unless that’s the only designation the bowl has. Those change almost yearly and leads to confusion about which game is which. Ok? We squared away, bro?)
   So let’s begin!

Games We’re Absolutely Sure About:
   The winner for Most Obvious Rout goes to the Boca Raton Bowl on Dec 19, between a 7-6 Akron team that’s only bowl eligible because it plays in the weakest division in football, against an undefeated in conference Florida Atlantic team that’s wrecked everything in its path the last two months. Oh! And the game will be played on FAU’s home field, too! We predict a three touchdown victory for the Owls.
   Our other certainties? In descending order, Florida State over Southern Miss (Dec 27, Independence Bowl); North Carolina State over the disaster that is Arizona State (Dec 29, Sun Bowl); Northwestern over Kentucky (Dec 29, Music City Bowl); and Arkansas State over Middle Tennessee (Dec 16, Camellia Bowl).

Games with a Clear Favorite:
    We’ll hit these in chronological order, since there are so many of them -
Dec 16, New Orleans Bowl: Troy over North Texas (the Green are good, but the Trojans are a league apart).
Dec 16, New Mexico Bowl: Colorado State over Marshall.
Dec 22, Bahamas Bowl: Ohio U over the best story in football, the 8-4 Alabama-Birmingham Dragons, back from the dead and in a bowl after two years dormant. Alas, Ohio is just better than they are.
Dec 23, Birmingham Bowl: South Florida over Texas Tech.
Dec 23, Armed Forces Bowl: San Diego State over Army-West Point. (There’ll be a LOT of running in this game!)
Dec 27, Pinstripe Bowl: Iowa over Boston College by three points. Strange to say it that way, but the universal opinion is that the Hawkeyes are three points better than the Eagles.
Dec 27, Texas Bowl: Missouri over Texas. Mizzou found a switch mid year and is as good as anyone in the country all of a sudden.
Dec 28, Camping World Bowl (gag): Oklahoma State over Virginia Tech. Tech’s good, but the Cowpokes are better.
Dec 29, Arizona Bowl: Utah State over New Mexico State. It’s been 57 years since NMSU has been in a bowl game, but unfortunately it will end the same way it did in 1960 - losing to Utah State.
Dec 30, TaxSlayer Bowl (gag): Louisville over Mississippi State. Lamar Jackson in probably his final collegiate game.
Dec 30, Liberty Bowl: Memphis over Iowa State, in a home game for the 11-2 Tigers.
Dec 30, Orange Bowl (a New Year’s Six game): Wisconsin over Miami of Florida.

Games That We’re Willing To Pick A Winner For:
   Again, for the sake of clarity, we’ll go in chronological order...
Dec 16, Celebration Bowl: North Carolina A&T over Grambling State. The battle for HBC supremacy should go to the undefeated Aggies, who have only had two opponents come within a touchdown of them all season.
Dec 16, Cure Bowl: Western Kentucky over Georgia State. Two six-win teams that really shouldn’t have bowl bids. WKU isn’t very good, but they’re better than GSU is.
Dec 23, Dollar General Bowl (ew): Two good teams, Toledo over Appalachian State.
Dec 24, Hawaii Bowl: Fresno State over Houston.
Dec 26, Quick Lane Bowl (sigh): Duke over Northern Illinois. A mediocre Power 5 team should defeat a mediocre Group of 5 team.
Dec 26, Cactus Bowl: Kansas State over UCLA.
Dec 28, Holiday Bowl: Always a good matchup. Michigan State should defeat Washington State.
Dec 29, Belk Bowl: Wake Forest over Texas A&M. Continuity wins out.
Dec 29, Cotton Bowl (a New Year’s Six game): Potentially one of the very best games of the season, Ohio State should be too much for Southern Cal. Should be...
Jan 1, Outback Bowl (the restaurant that claims to be Australian): Michigan is probably stronger than South Carolina. Probably...

Games We Picked With Our Fingers Crossed:
   These six are tough; you could argue any of them the other way and I wouldn’t be upset.
Dec 20, Frisco Bowl: SMU over Louisiana Tech.
Dec 22, Idaho Potato Bowl (on the blue turf in Boise, my home stadium) Wyoming over Central Michigan. I’d been on the fence about this one but the stronger conference argument won me over.
Dec 26, Heart of Dallas Bowl: Utah over West Virginia. Hard to know, but it seems to me that Utah travels better.
Dec 28, Military Bowl (as opposed to “Armed Forces Bowl”. Yeah, there are too many bowls...): Naval Academy over Virginia. Although the Virginia that beat Boise in September would roll over Navy...
Dec 30, Fiesta Bowl (a New Year’s Six Bowl): Penn State over Washington, but I’m not at ALL sure about that. I’m going off last year’s bowl performances and betting against coach Petersen for the first time in my life.
Jan 1, Peach Bowl (also a New Year’s Six game): the annual token appearance of a Group Of Fice power against a real test from the Power Five. And Auburn will be a REAL test for Central Florida. We’re taking a strong Auburn team that beat both Alabama and Georgia, but UCF isn’t undefeated for nothing.

Games We’re Flipping a Coin Over:
   These five are toss ups that we’ve almost arbitrarily chosen one team because we had to...
Oregon over Boise State (Dec 16, Las Vegas Bowl).
Temple over Florida International (Dec 21, Gaspsrilla Bowl).
Arizona over Purdue (Dec 27, Foster Farms Bowl).
TCU over Stanford (Dec 28, Alamo Bowl).
Notre Dame over LSU (Jan 1, Citrus Bowl).

The Championship Four(s):
   FBS - in the Jan 1 Sugar Bowl, the rubber match between Clemson and Alabama will determine one finalist (we like ‘Bama by three, but the majority of pundits pick Clemson in a close one). Meanwhile, the Rose Bowl between Oklahoma and Georgia is a virtual tossup, even in Vegas, where the point spread has crossed from one team the the other more than once. (We also have a tie.) This should be a dandy!
   FCS - we are one game away from the final everyone wants! #1 James Madison will host #5 South Dakota State this Friday (we pick JMU by five), and #2 North Dakota State hosts #6 Sam Houston State on Saturday (we pick NDSU by a full 17 points!). The winners meet in Frisco, Texas, on January 6th, for the FCS national title.
   Division II - Texas A&M-Commerce has the unenviable task of facing off against the lovable second-year program from the powerful Gulf Coast Conference, West Florida, which has ripped through higher seeds all the way to the national final. We're not going against West Florida again!
   Division III - here, we got our wish: Mary-Hardin-Baylor is going to defend their national title in the final against perennial champion Mount Union this Saturday. We can’t wait!

The Final Fours in college football!

The final four teams have been named on the shores of American collegiate football. The College Football Playoff committee has ranked these four teams at the top of the FBS and seeded them in the semi-finals, played in the Rose and Sugar Bowls on January 1^st:

  Ø  #1 Clemson Tigers (12-1, champions of the ACC)

  Ø  #2 Oklahoma Sooners (12-1, champions of the Big Twelve)

  Ø  #3 Georgia Bulldogs (12-1, champs of the SEC)

  Ø  #4 Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1, SEC).

The difficult conversation for the committee came down to whether to put Alabama (with just one loss to 10-2 Auburn on the road which happened to keep them from winning the SEC) or Ohio State (champs of the Big Ten but twice losers, including a 31-point blowout at 7-5 Iowa) in that fourth spot. The consensus of the public was there was no right answer, and even USC (two-loss champs of the Pac-12) were considered. For the record, we have Clemson, Georgia, and Oklahoma all at a rating of 9 on our ELO-FOLLOWING FOOTBALL rating system, and Alabama and Ohio State the only two teams ahead of them (Alabama at 6, Ohio State at 8). So, either would have been an asset and a favorite.

In the end, Ohio State was placed fifth (and out of the playoffs), Wisconsin 6^th, Auburn 7^th, and USC 8^th. All four of those schools got major bowl games as consolation prizes: USC and Ohio State are meeting in the Cotton Bowl Dec 29, Wisconsin goes to Miami in the Orange Bowl Dec 30, Washington and Penn State meet in the Fiesta Bowl Dec 30, and Group of Five champion Central Florida (12-0 after a 62-55 barn-burner win against conference rival Memphis Saturday; the only undefeated team in FCS) plays 10-3 SEC powerhouse Auburn in the Peach Bowl on Jan 1^st. 33 other bowl games were filled with 66 other teams with winning records, exhibition games that reward the teams and their fans for a successful season. (In truth, the coaches get fifteen extra practices with those bowl invites, so they get to work with their team when their lesser rivals can’t.)

The FCS level is down to eight teams rather than four:

  Ø  James Madison (26-7 winners over fellow CAA team Stony Brook) host Weber State (30-13 winners against Big Sky rival Southern Utah).

  Ø  South Dakota State (which defeated fellow MVC Northern Iowa 37-22) plays upstart New Hampshire from the CAA (which upset Central Arkansas 21-15).

  Ø  MVC champ North Dakota State (routers of San Diego, 38-3) plays SoCon champ Wofford (conquerors of fellow Southern conference Furman 28-10).

  Ø  And Kennesaw State (which upset #3 Jacksonville State 17-7 of the OVC) defends the Big South with a battle against Southland power Sam Houston State (54-42 winners against MVC power South Dakota).

Our money is still on a James Madison defense against five-time champion North Dakota State in the final. For comparison, NDSU has a rating of 21; JMU 23. No other school is lower than 29.

We haven’t mentioned Division 2 or 3 all season, but those exist within the NCAA bounds as well for smaller, non-scholarship schools. In Division 2, Indiana of Pennsylvania hosts West Florida, and Texas A&M – Commerce hosts Harding University this weekend. And in Division 3, Mary Hardin-Baylor defends its national title against Brockport State, while 13-time champ Mount Union plays Wisconsin-Oshkosh for a change (they’ve played Wisconsin-Whitewater in the finals for something like nine years straight before last season!).

      As for our ELO-FF ratings, well, we’ve already revealed our top five. Here’s our top 25:

      1.       Alabama (rating of 6)

      2.       Ohio State (8)

      3.       Georgia, Clemson, and Oklahoma (9).

      6.       Wisconsin and Penn State (11)

      8.       Auburn (12)

      9.       Washington (13)

      10.   Stanford (16)

      11.   Oklahoma State (17)

      12.   LSC and USC (18)

      14.   TCU (19)

      15.   Notre Dame, Michigan, and the best of Group of Five, Central Florida (20)

      17.   Iowa, Miami-FL, and if you want to break the rules a mite, North Dakota State! (21)

      20.   Kansas State, Northwestern, Iowa State, Texas, Mississippi State, and Memphis (22).

In the FCS level, let’s look at our top rated teams for the year as well:

      1.       North Dakota State (rating of 21)

      2.       James Madison (23)

      3.       South Dakota State (29)

      4.       Kennesaw State, Weber State (31)

      6.       Central Arkansas (32)

      7.       Jacksonville State, Western Illinois (33)

      9.       Youngstown State, Sam Houston State (34)

      11.   Northern Iowa (35)

      12.   Illinois State, Southern Utah, Furman, Samford, Richmond, South Dakota (36)

      18.   Wofford, Montana State, and San Diego. (37)

            North Carolina A&T is the top-rated “historically black college” at 38, alone in slot #21.

This weekend’s predictions? Not much to work with…

Well, there IS the uber-traditional “Army/Navy” game, which for the first time in forever we have as a toss-up, zero points to give in either direction. (My gut says Navy’s seeking revenge for breaking The Streak – they’d beaten Army fourteen years straight.)

And there’s the FCS quarter-finals, but except for the Sam Houston State v Kennesaw State, I see double-digit margins in the neighborhood – JMU by 19, NDSU by 12, and SDSU by 16. The only reason I’m favoring Sam Houston is the fact that they’re playing their second in a row at home, and Kennesaw’s playing its second on the road: SHSU by one.

In Division II, I’m expecting a final between the two most oddly named schools: Indiana of Pennsylvania, and Texas A&M-Commerce, while in Division III, I am REALLY hoping for form to hold and produce a match between current reigning champ UMHB and perennial champ Mount Union.

Our prediction record for the year stands at 826-252, for a batting average over 76.6% for the year. We also lead the Vegas oddsmakers 250-234, and the Sagarin ratings 250-216 in accuracy. Next week, we’ll forecast all the bowl games and the lower division finals for you!

Conference championship weekend in college football!

            This Saturday is the penultimate event on the FBS calendar in American collegiate football – the weekend when all the conference championships are determined, and the bowl invitations are passed out, including the four most treasured invites to the National Championship playoff games.

            We had a good predictive week last week, going 54 and 10 in our forecasts overall and 20-6 in the games we shared in this space last week. We use the ELO-Following Football rating system: not a complicated rating system in its essence, where we simply compare the game results to the ratings’ predictions and then adjust the new ratings by zero to four points towards the team that did better than expectations.

            For example, we expected Florida State to beat Florida by four points. They ended up winning 38-22, a sixteen-point margin, which happens to equate to FSU improving by a point and Florida adding a point to their rating. On the other hand, the system expected Tennessee to defeat Vanderbilt by nine; instead, they were routed 42-24. (It didn’t account for the change in coaches, primarily.) So Vandy improved by three points, and the Volunteers dropped three more points away from the top, as they should, being worse than we thought they were. The “ELO” element ensures that there’s a balance between what one team gains and its opponent loses; we have criteria that tampers with that element on rare occasions, but in principle that’s what happens.

            In the FBS games we predicted, we went 12-5. The five we missed included the Tennessee game we just mentioned, Ole Miss’ upset of Mississippi State (and MSU then lost their coach to Florida! Bad day for them!), Nevada’s surprise loss to their in-state rivals at UNLV, 23-16, Miami’s let-down at Pittsburgh (the second year in a row Pitt has upset a top-2 team in the stretch drive…but last year, it was Clemson, which came back to win the title!), and the huge upset in Auburn, Alabama, where the Tigers handled the Crimson Tide 28-16.

            Our winning picks included Washington (routed WSU 41-14), Ohio State and Wisconsin in the Big Ten, Clemson (over South Carolina), UCF (49-42 winners on a kick-off return for a touchdown to win the game in the fourth quarter), NC State, Georgia, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Stanford, and Toledo. Oh, and Iowa trounced Nebraska 56-14, which caused Nebraska to fire their coach after a 4-8 season, and greedily eye the young man running the 11-0 Central Florida team, Scott Frost, who just happens to be a former Nebraska quarterback…

            Coach raiding is (unfortunately) a way of life in any sports system where you have so many different levels of the activity so interconnected: Power Five, Group of Five, FCS, Division 2, Division 3, and so on down the line. Even cross-pollination like Florida taking in-conference rival Mississippi State’s coach Dan Mullen can happen when there’s such a discrepancy in money and facilities availability. But most often intra-conference or other parallel moves only happen when there’s some local connection, like Nebraska’s hoping will happen with the UCF coach, Scott Frost, who led the Cornhusker team to a national championship 20 years ago.

            Let’s take a look at the nine conference championship games set for this Saturday (the Sun Belt does not play a title game):

            Clemson v Miami-Florida in Charlotte for the ACC title (we have Clemson by 8; Vegas says 9.5 points).

            Ohio State v Wisconsin in Indianapolis for the Big Ten (we see Ohio St by three; Vegas doubles that).

            TCU at Oklahoma for the Big Twelve (we say OU by six; Vegas says seven).

            Auburn v Georgia at Atlanta for the SEC (Vegas picks Georgia to gain revenge on Auburn, favoring them by 2.5; we see the game as a toss-up.)

Stanford v USC in Santa Clara for the Pac-12 championship (we say Stanford by four; Vegas goes with Southern Cal by three. Should be interesting!).

            Memphis at Central Florida for the American conference (UCF by five. Regardless of who wins, the winner here is the Group of Five’s New Year’s Six representative.)

            North Texas at Florida Atlantic for Conference-USA’s title (Vegas says FAU by ten; we say 13.)

            Toledo v. Akron in Detroit for the MAC title (Toledo is favored by 14 on our board and 20 in Las Vegas)

            Fresno State at Boise State for the Mountain West (the rerun of last weekend’s 28-17 Fresno win is predicted to go the other way this Saturday – we say Boise by 7; Vegas says 9.)

            And in the Sun Belt, the two games that will informally determine the champion are Troy at Arkansas State (both are 6-1 in conference, and ASU is a 2-point favorite) and Appalachian State hosting Louisiana-Lafayette (where they are 16 point favorites on our board, 15 in Vegas) to stay tied with the Troy/ASU winner at one loss in conference. IF they lose to ULL, then the winner of Troy/ASU will be the sole champion of the Sun Belt conference. (For a change!)

            After those games have been played on Saturday, we expect the announcement Sunday evening about the four teams chosen for the National Championship semifinals. The consensus opinion at the moment is that the winner of the SEC title game is in, and the winner of the ACC title game is also in. Following that, IF the Oklahoma Sooners can win the Big Twelve title game (at home) and IF Wisconsin stays undefeated by winning against Ohio State in the Big Ten (that would be a slight upset), then those two teams are in the final four as well, and we’re settled.

IF one or both of those teams lose, then what?

Do you put a one-loss Alabama team in, losing only to a possible SEC champion on the road, over a two-loss Ohio State who may be playing the best ball in the country right now? Or do you consider TCU with two losses? Or Wisconsin with one loss to the only highly-ranked team they played? Or Southern Cal with two losses if they win the Pac-12? Do you consider Miami/Clemson/Georgia/Auburn if they’ve lost their conference championship games? What about a 12-0 Central Florida team in the “little” American Athletic Conference?

Personally, I’d consider TCU or Ohio State first, as conference champs, even with two losses – and therefore even Stanford or USC. Alabama is unquestionably the best of the teams not playing this weekend, and has the best record of the “losers” to boot. And I know I’m a Group of Five blowhard, but I’d consider 12-0 UCF, an AAC titlist, over a three-loss non-champ any day of the week. Maybe even a two-loss team.

It will be interesting, unless Wisconsin and Oklahoma make it easy for the committee. (This is why, as much as I hate the idea, an eight-team tournament makes so much sense. Five Power Five conference champs, one from the Group of Five, and two wild cards. I love four teams – it just feels right – but four available slots when there are five conferences in charge is stupid.)

           

            On to the FCS level, where seven of our eight predictions came up golden – but like everyone else, we underestimated the weak Pioneer League’s strong champion, the San Diego Toreros. San Diego was expected to be easy fodder for Northern Arizona, third in the powerful Big Sky conference – instead, USD destroyed NAU 41-10, with Northern Arizona’s only touchdown coming in garbage time in the late fourth quarter.

Otherwise, however, we were perfect: Stony Brook wiped out Lehigh 59-29 (we’d underestimated and said 12 points); Weber State beat Western Illinois 21-19 in the best game of the weekend (we picked them by three); New Hampshire beat Central Connecticut 14-0 (we’d thought a ten-point margin was about right). Northern Iowa was supposed to win by nine – well, try 39 instead: they routed Monmouth 46-7. Furman was a 10-point favorite over our sentimental preference, Elon, and were it not for a failed two-point conversion, they would have taken Furman to overtime or won outright, rather than losing 28-27. Kennesaw State did indeed win handily over a strong Samford team, 28-17; and while Nicholls State put up a good fight, South Dakota held to their four-point advantage up, winning 38-31.

This coming Saturday, we expect all of the rested, seeded teams to be victorious over these eight winners, with the possible exception of Furman (we see a tossup at Wofford) and South Dakota (we see Sam Houston State as a five-point favorite, but others have USD as the favorite there). Here are our ELO-FF predictions:

Weber State @ Southern Utah (-3).

Kennesaw State @ Jacksonville State (-6).

New Hampshire @ Central Arkansas (-19).

Stony Brook @ James Madison (-20).

Northern Iowa @ South Dakota State (-8).

South Dakota @ Sam Houston State (-5).

San Diego @ North Dakota State (-17).

Furman @ Wofford (even).

            Almost everyone who’s paid attention to the FCS this year is simply waiting for the first Saturday of 2018, when we all presume James Madison University will try to defend its newly won title against five-time-previous winner North Dakota State in Frisco, Texas. We’re treating all the rest of these games as just entertaining window dressing to keep us occupied until the two powerhouses meet on January 6^th for all the marbles.

Plus, there’s the SWAC championship, where the winner goes to the Celebration Bowl to face North Carolina A&T for the HBC (Historically Black College) championship: Alcorn State @ Grambling State (-18), after a GSU victory over their chief rival Southern University last weekend.

[Originally published in The Roar, Nov 29, 2017]

And Down The Stretch They Come!

            The final regular season week is here for the FBS schools in college football, which determines who goes to conference championship games, who goes to one of the 39 bowl games, and eventually which four teams are selected to play January football for the national championship. It’s also the beginning of the 24-team playoff bracket for the top teams in the ten FCS conferences who participate – the two conferences of “Historically Black Colleges” hold their own title bowl game December 16, and the Ivy League schools (Yale was the champion this year) do not participate in anything beyond the ten game schedule they just concluded.

            Let’s look at the lower-division FCS teams first: of the eight teams we forecast to receive top eight seeds (and the week off that comes with it) two weeks ago, seven of them did indeed get selected – in order, #1 James Madison (Virginia, of the Colonial conference), North Dakota State (MVC champ), Jacksonville State (of Alabama, the OVC champ), Central Arkansas (the Southland conference champ), South Dakota State (MVC runner-up), Sam Houston State (Texas, the Southland runner-up), and Wofford (in South Carolina, the Southern Conference champ). The number eight seed was indeed the Big Sky conference champion, as expected, but that turned out to be Southern Utah rather than Weber State.

            This week’s eight games set up to determine their eight opponents next week. Included are our ELO-Following Football point spread predictions and who the winner would play:

            Lehigh (Patriot conference champ) at Stony Brook (CAA 2^nd place) – winner plays at James Madison. Lehigh went 5-1 in the Patriot League, and 0-5 outside it. Stony Brook by 12.

            Western Illinois (MVC at-large) at Weber State (Big Sky co-champ) – winner plays at Southern Utah. We like Weber by three.

            Central Connecticut State (NEC champ) at New Hampshire (CAA at-large) – winner plays at Central Arkansas. CCSU came from 2-9 last year to win the Northeast, unbeaten in conference. But New Hampshire plays in a much tougher league: UNH by 10.

            Monmouth (Big South runner-up) at Northern Iowa (MVC at-large) – winner plays at South Dakota State. We’re ecstatic Monmouth made it in, but we like NIU by nine here.

            San Diego (Pioneer champ) at Northern Arizona (Big Sky at-large) – winner plays at North Dakota State. We favor NAU by two.

            Furman (Southern Conference at-large) at Elon (CAA at-large) – winner plays at Wofford. Elon has had a great turnaround season, but we think Furman ends it by ten.

            Samford (Southern Conference at-large) at Kennesaw State (Big South champ) – winner plays at Jacksonville State. We think Kennesaw was disrespected in its placement, and we like them here by six.

            South Dakota (MVC at-large) at Nicholls State (Southland at-large) – winner plays at Sam Houston State. We’re really happy for Nicholls State, which went 0-12 three years ago. But South Dakota could have been seeded, so we’re predicting USD by four.

            Two weeks ago, we thought Western Carolina might represent the Southern Conference instead of Samford, but this was the right call: Samford has more good wins, and WCU lost its last game 65-10. We’re surprised Nicholls State got in over conference foe McNeese State, but we’re excited to see how them manage against a tournament veteran like South Dakota. Illinois State fell apart towards the end of the season, and Northern Iowa deserved “their spot” in the tournament. The other teams we were thinking had a good shot Saturday night included Eastern Washington of the Big Sky (on pedigree as much as record), and our precious Governors from Austin Peay, which went 7-1 in conference and 8-1 in FCS (their other three losses were to good FBS teams). But when you break a 29-game losing streak THIS season, it may be too early to expect more than a pat on the back this year.

            As for those “HBC” conferences, the SWAC has a couple of weeks left to settle its internal squabbles, while the MEAC behemoth awaits. Southern and Grambling put on their annual “Battle of the Bands” surrounded by a football game in New Orleans this weekend (we like Grambling by six), the winner to play Alcorn State for the league title next week. After that, the SWAC champion gets to play in the brand-new Mercedes-Benz stadium in Atlanta on December 16 against 11-0 North Carolina A&T, which we would favor over anyone in the SWAC right now.

            On to the last week of the FBS season!

            The biggest games are three of the traditional rivalries that will determine division championships, and probably the best game of the three will be Alabama at Auburn, to settle the fate of the SEC West. We all assumed ‘Bama would dust the field with the Tigers until Auburn demolished SEC East champ Georgia 40-13 last week; now, even though Alabama still has the best rating in the sport, Auburn is only a five-point underdog on our rating scale. The winner plays Georgia for the SEC title and presumably a spot in the playoff foursome.

            The second important rivalry game is Washington/Washington State, and if WSU can overcome what we have as a four-point margin against them, they would win the Pac-12 North and take on USC for the conference title. If they lose, Stanford will host the title game. Regardless of outcome, though, the Pac-12 champion is NOT guaranteed a spot in the playoff; other teams ahead of them will have to lose.

            One of those might be Wisconsin, which will be a two-TD favorite against Minnesota. But if the undefeated Badgers make it past the Gophers and then defeat Ohio State in the Big Ten title game, they’ll be in the final four. If not, though, it’s not clear if the two-loss Buckeyes are in; part of that determination depends on how they look against their arch-rivals this weekend, the Michigan Wolverines. We have OSU as a 9-point choice, and we would currently favor them by five against Wisconsin on the neutral field in Indianapolis they’ll play on next week.

            Clemson and Miami have warm-up games before they meet in a winner-take-playoff spot game on December 2 for the ACC title, regardless of the outcomes this weekend. Both are 12-point road favorites on our books, Clemson at South Carolina and Miami at Pittsburgh.

            The third rivalry game with conference title implications takes place in Orlando Friday, where South Florida and Central Florida match up for the AAC East title in the “War On I-4”. The winner will be the favorite against 9-1 Memphis for both the conference title and the New Year’s Six bowl game spot allotted to the best non-Power Five team in the country. (We favor the home UCF Golden Knights by nine this week.)

The only other real rival for that position at this point in the rankings outside the AAC might be Boise State in the Mountain West, which has an interesting situation Saturday night. Both Boise and Fresno State have clinched their respective divisions with one game left to play…against each other, oddly enough. So they’ll play two consecutive games: the first, with nothing on the line, and the second, for the conference title. Our puzzle – how would you coach that first game? Do you play conservatively, show nothing, and rest your stars? Or go all-out, try to run them into the ground and send a message, maybe show them seven weird formations they’ll have to prepare for all next week? We’re going to be fascinated to find out how the coaches handle this odd situation! (Under normal circumstances, we’d favor Boise by five. But this game? I wouldn’t bet this game on a death threat.)

Here’s a run-down of ELO-FF’s predictions of other rivalry games that don’t have title implications riding on them:

Ø  North Carolina State by ten at North Carolina.

Ø  Georgia over Georgia Tech in Atlanta by ten.

Ø  Florida State by four at Florida.

Ø  Virginia Tech by a touchdown on the road versus Virginia.

Ø  Iowa by six at Nebraska.

Ø  Stanford by five at home versus Notre Dame.

Ø  We see Arizona at Arizona State as an even game.

Ø  Tennessee is a nine-point favorite at home against Vanderbilt.

Ø  Mississippi State is a six-point home favorite against Ole Miss Thursday night in the “Egg Bowl”.

Ø  Western Michigan is a nine-point underdog at the Glass Bowl against Toledo.

Ø  Nevada-Reno has a three-point edge at home against UNLV.

Quick! Before the NCAA makes up its mind...

...here are the Act II predictions for the FCS playoffs, including the eight seeds and where the other sixteen teams will line up below them:

1) James Madison (11-0) will take on the winner of Furman (7-4) and Austin Leay (8-4).  We think. Remember, this is only OUR guesswork. Check later in the week for the real lineup!

8) Kennesaw State (10-1) will host the winner of Lehigh (5-6, the Patriot league champ) and Samford (8-3).

4) Jacksonville State (10-1) will play at home against the winner of McNeese State (9-2) and Northern Iowa (7-4).

5) South Dakota State (9-2) waits for the survivor of the Big Sky battle betwixt Northern Arizona (7-4) and Eastern Washington (also 7-4), which didn’t play each other this season.

2) North Dakota State (10-1) will host the winner of Southern Illinois (7-4) and Weber State (9-2).

7) Wofford (9-2) awaits the winner of Stony Brook (9-2) and NEC champ Central Connecticut State (8-3).

3) Central Arkansas (10-1) will play either Elon (8-3) or Western Illinois (8-3).

And 6) Southern Utah (9-2) will host the San Diego (9-2) / Sam Houston State (10-1) winner.

Okay? Let’s see how close we get...

FBS on the home stretch!

[Originally published in The Roar Nov 14, 2017]

            Last week, we took a gander at the lower half of Division 1 American college football as it hit the two-weeks-to-go mark before the playoff selection. This week, it’s the upper half, the ten FBS conferences, who have two weeks to go before the conference championship games take place and the final bowl and playoff selections occur. (Generally, teams must win six games to become bowl eligible.) Let’s look at those conferences and where their teams line up for those possibilities.

            Atlantic Coast (ACC): In the Coastal division, Miami-FL cinched the division title even before demolishing Notre Dame Saturday night, and will face Clemson, who finished its conference play at 7-1 with a win over poor Florida State and clinched the Atlantic division. The winner of that game has the inside track on one of the four playoff positions IF they win out.

Bowl participants: definitely Miami (currently 9-0), Clemson (9-1), North Carolina State (7-3), Virginia (6-4), Louisville (6-4), Wake Forest (6-4) and Virginia Tech (7-3); probably Boston College (projected to finish 7-5), Georgia Tech (6-5); possibly Pitt (projected 4-8), Duke (4-8), and Syracuse (4-8).

            American (AAC): The winner of the South Florida at Central Florida game in two weeks will be the East division champ, and Memphis has the inside track to win the West with wins over SMU and East Carolina in the next two weeks. The East champ is most likely going to be the New Year’s Six representative.

Bowl participants: definitely UCF (9-0), USF (8-1), Memphis (8-1), Houston (6-3), SMU (6-4), and Navy (6-3); possibly Temple (projected at 5-7), and Tulane (4-8).

            Big Ten: Wisconsin has the chance to win out and make the College Football Playoff, with victories over Michigan, Minnesota, and the East champion (most likely Ohio State). They’ve got the West sewn up already; the Buckeyes have a leg up on the East division at 6-1, and with a pair of wins against Illinois and at Michigan will cinch the East.

Bowl participants: definitely Ohio State (8-2), Michigan (8-2), Michigan State (8-2), Penn State (7-3), Wisconsin (10-0), Northwestern (7-3), and Iowa (6-4); possibly Nebraska (projected 4-8), Minnesota (5-7), Purdue (5-7), Maryland (4-8), and Rutgers (4-8).

            Big Twelve: Oklahoma has one spot in the pointless title game wrapped up with a win over TCU Saturday. TCU is still the leading candidate for the other slot, tied with Oklahoma State and West Virginia at 5-2. (Despite everyone playing everyone else, the “XII” has the top two play again, with the assumption that one more win looks too good for the playoff committee to pass up…forgetting that the one more loss may exclude their best candidate. We’re going to find out in three weeks!)

Bowl participants: definitely Oklahoma (9-1) Oklahoma State (8-2), TCU (8-2), West Virginia (7-3), Iowa State (6-4); probably Texas (projected 6-6); possibly Kansas State (projected 5-7), Texas Tech (projected 5-7).

            Conference USA:  Florida International goes to Florida Atlantic next week, with FAU hoping to clinch the East division crown. North Texas is 6-1 in the West, and has only a bowl of Rice in front of it for a West division title.

Bowl participants: definitely North Texas (7-3), Alabama-Birmingham (7-3... unless the state school board interferes again!), FAU (7-3), FIU (6-3), Southern Miss (6-4), and Marshall (7-3); probably Middle Tennessee (projected 6-6), Western Kentucky (7-5) and UTSA (7-5); possibly Louisiana Tech (projected 5-7).

            Mid-American (MAC): Ohio just beat Toledo 38-10 this past Wednesday; that’s very likely to be the match-up again in a few weeks for the MAC title, barring a slip-up from either team (although Ohio has Akron next Tuesday, and Toledo has Western Michigan in two weeks).

Bowl participants: definitely Ohio (8-2), Toledo (8-2), Northern Illinois (7-3), Western (6-4) and Central Michigan (6-4); probably Akron (projected 6-6); possibly Miami-Ohio (projected 5-7) and Buffalo (5-7).

            Mountain West (MWC): With a win over San Diego State to its credit, Fresno State would have to lose to more than just to Boise on November 25 to lose the West division crown; meanwhile, Boise State would have to lose to more than just Fresno to lose the Mountain division crown. What we’re saying is that those two teams will be playing two consecutive games in weeks 13 and 14: the first one will be completely meaningless, while the latter one will be for the title. That will make the first game an interesting chess match…

Bowl participants: definitely Fresno State (7-3), San Diego State (8-2), Boise State (8-2), Colorado State (6-5), and Wyoming (7-3); probably Utah State (projected 6-6); possibly UNLV (projected 4-8) and Air Force (5-7).

            Pacific 12 (Pac-12): Stanford's whipping of Washington means that Washington State is one Apple Cup win away from winning a three-way battle for the North division title; lose to UW, and Stanford hosts the title game against the already-sealed and delivered Southern Cal Trojans. Washington could still win if they beat WSU ("Wazzu") and Stanford loses to Cal-Berkeley in "the Big Game" this weekend.  With the cannibalization the league has committed, and no team having less than two losses, it's almost inconceivable that any Pac-12 team will make the final four.

Bowl participants: definitely Washington (8-2), WSU (9-2), Stanford (7-3), Arizona (7-3), USC (9-2); probably Arizona State (projected 6-6), Oregon (6-6), Utah (6-6), UCLA (6-6); possibly Cal (projected 5-7), Colorado (5-7).

            Southeastern (SEC): With Georgia’s loss to Auburn, the stage is set for next week's Iron Bowl between 10-0 Alabama and 8-2 Auburn, the winner becoming the West division titlist and getting (a possible rematch with) Georgia for the SEC title. It sure looks like the Iron Bowl winner would have to be one of the four CFP favorites at the moment, and if the winner beats Georgia (again), that's a certainty.

Bowl participants: definitely Alabama, Georgia (9-1), Auburn, Kentucky (7-3), South Carolina (7-3), LSU (7-3), Mississippi State (7-3), and Texas A&M (6-4); probably Missouri (projected 7-5 after a terrible start); possibly Tennessee (projected 5-7), Vanderbilt (4-8), Arkansas (4-8); Ole Miss is ineligible despite their current 5-5 record.

            Sun Belt: Four teams now have one conference loss, and with no title game it seems very likely that co-champions might happen. But looking at the upcoming schedules (Troy hosts Arkansas State and App St plays Georgia State), it looks like the most likely outcome involves a tie between Appalachian State and Troy; since they don't play each other this year, they seem likely to finish co-champs. (No title game, no complete round-robin. It's the opposite stupidity of the Big Twelve's stupidity.) 

Bowl participants: definitely Troy (8-2), Appalachian State (6-4), and Georgia State (6-3); probably Arkansas State (projected 8-3) and New Mexico State (7-5); possibly UL-Lafayette (projected 5-7), UL-Monroe (4-7), Idaho (4-8) and South Alabama (4-8).

            Independent teams: Notre Dame is 8-2 and  was virtually guaranteed a final four playoff spot until their rout at undefeated Miami Saturday. But they lost to 9-1 Georgia by just one point and have wins against Temple, Boston College, Michigan State, USC, North Carolina State, and Wake Forest; add the Midshipmen and Cardinal to that list and they might still get into the finals, particularly if Miami goes in undefeated. Army is 8-2 and guaranteed a bowl bid, while UMass and BYU together don’t have enough wins to qualify.

            So, our current projections with two weeks to go before conference title games? Our four CFP finalists would be Alabama (SEC), Oklahoma (Big Twelve), Wisconsin (Big Ten), and the Clemson - Miami winner (ACC), assuming wins go their way in November.

            And the clamoring for an eight-team playoff increases exponentially if either Notre Dame makes it or a second ACC or SEC team makes the playoffs. Personally, we HATE the idea of expansion, but money says that the five Power Five conferences will NOT continue with a contract that automatically prevents at least one and in this case up to THREE of them from getting a cut of the biggest pie. Expect to see an eight-team finals with the five Power Five champs guaranteed a spot and three wild cards when the next contract comes up; and if there’s any justice in the world, one of those spots would be guaranteed to a Group of Five team. (But if they actually DO that, we’ll faint.)

            As for the conference champions? In order, we expect them to be Clemson (ACC), Central Florida (AAC), Ohio State (Big Ten), Oklahoma (Big Twelve), FIU (Conference USA), Ohio (MAC), Boise State (MWC), USC (Pac 12), Alabama (SEC), and Appalachian State / Troy (Sun Belt).

            Finally, there are 39 FBS bowl games this year (not counting the title game), so there need to be 78 teams that qualify for bowl games to fill those slots. “Qualify” traditionally means six wins against FBS competition. We just listed 98 teams who could possibly make that goal, but only 72 who probably will make that target. In that situation, the six teams at 5-7 (or 5-6) which have the best academic scores will be invited to fill out those remaining openings in bowl games. (Last year, all five such teams won their bowls, I think. Maybe they went 4-1, but it was impressive nonetheless.)

            Next week’s top games look like this:

Ø  Michigan at Wisconsin, the toughest test for the Badgers before the B1G title game. (We favor the home Badgers on our ELO-Following Football rating system by 11 points.)

Ø  Two traditional Pac-12 matchups in California: UCLA @ USC and Cal @ Stanford. (USC by 16 and Stanford by 14.)

Ø  Missouri @ Vanderbilt and Texas A&M @ Ole Miss, two SEC games for bowl eligibility. (Mizzou by 7 and A&M by 2.)

Ø  FIU at Florida Atlantic for the C-USA East laurels. (FAU is favored by 17, remarkably.)

Ø  James Madison at Elon for the Colonial AA title. (Elon, like all the rest of JMU's opponents this season, is a 2-3 touchdown underdog.)

Ø  Austin Peay at Eastern Illinois in the Ohio Valley, very possibly for an FCS playoff spot. (APU is a 2-point underdog, but has won all four games we've had them as single-digit underdogs this season...We'd bet on the Governors to go 8-4, 8-1 against FCS foes.)

Ø  Lafayette @ Lehigh to decide the Patriot League title. (If Lehigh fails to hold its 13-point spread, then Colgate wins the title.)

Ø  NC Central at NC A&T to decide the MEAC crown; if Central upsets A&T (a 16-point favorite), then Howard University can tie them with a win over rival Hampton.

Ø  Four teams in the Southern Conference go up a level or three to prepare for possible playoff bids: Wofford @ South Carolina, Western Carolina @ UNC, the Citadel @ Clemson, and Mercer @ Alabama. (If any of them win, that’ll be a huge upset. But they’re all good FCS teams…)

Ø  And “The Game” (that’s its name): Harvard at Yale. If Yale wins (a 7-point favorite), they take the Ivy League title all alone; if not, Dartmouth (by 1) and Columbia (by 17) are favored to tie them for the title.