Coincidence in the books of Esther and Ruth

The two most "random" books in the Old Testament (IMHO) are the two short stories named after their strong, heroic female protagonists, Esther and Ruth. I say "random" because neither of the books "advances our knowledge" overtly, nor do they give us any significant "historical information" as the rest of the histories do, nor, for that matter, do any laws or proclamations come down from on high (except for a key one from a pagan king in the book of Esther which only applies during that story).

In fact, both books are obviously inserted as interludes, for a change of pace in the midst of some heavier material on either side. The book of Ruth takes place at the same time as the Judges ruled over Israel, although no specific year is described in the book; it follows the highly depressing book of Judges and precedes the long history of David and the other Kings of Israel. Meanwhile, Esther takes place during the period of Babylonian captivity, and thus makes a nice change of pace from the failings of the initial forays back to the Holy Land and the long, wordy Book of Job.

Both books are part of the five-book Megillot, along with the preachy book of Ecclesiastes, the semi-erotic Song of Songs, and the somewhat depressing book of Lamentations. Each of the five festivals celebrated by traditional Jewish communities includes a reading of one of the "Five Scrolls"; Esther, for example, is always read at Purim. They're also the only two books in the Bible named after women, for what that's worth.

But here's what I find fascinating about both books: neither of them specifically includes God. 

Oh, He's mentioned briefly in Ruth here and there, but He makes no actual appearances, nor does He play any particular role (except that the laws of the Jewish culture the scenes play out amidst are His). And He literally does not appear in the book of Esther; not once is the Lord's name brought up.

However, the Lord does play a very important role in both stories, and it's the same role He plays in most of our stories as well. It's a much more relatable role, too - I don't know about you, but I've never had God part any bodies of water for me, nor has any prophet ever performed any miracles (and the Lord knows I could use a good miracle cure for my TAM!). But I recognize His appearance in these two books because I see those appearances in my life as well:

The Lord shows up in the books of Esther and Ruth in the role of coincidences. 

Ruth is the daughter-in-law of Naomi, who moved to Moab with her husband Elimelech and her two sons when the famine in Israel got too severe for them. Ruth and another Moabite woman named Orpah (fun fact: this is who Oprah Winfrey was named after, but her mom flipped the letters on the birth certificate!) married the two sons, but both of them (and their father) were killed somehow - Scripture doesn't say, and it's not important to the story. After a stirring speech saying how she won't abandon her mother-in-law, Ruth travels with Naomi back to Israel.

Coincidentally, Naomi's hometown is Bethlehem Ephathrah. When Ruth goes out to "glean" in the fields (pick up after the harvesters, as Mosaic law allows the poor to do), she coincidentally happens to select the field of Boaz, who not only coincidentally happens to be Naomi's nearest kinsman redeemer (well, second nearest, but that's not important right now), but also just happens to be the son of a foreigner himself (Rahab, from Joshua 2) and is thus sympathetic to Ruth's plight. Long story short, Ruth and Boaz end up getting married, having a son, and that son ends up as the grandfather to David, the Goliath-slaying king of Israel and (coincidentally) in the family tree of Jesus Christ.

Esther is chock full of similar "random happenstances" - there just happens to be a vacancy in the king's boudoir, and the young Esther is forced into "auditioning" to be the next consort to the king, which she just happens to win. Meanwhile, her cousin and guardian Mordecai just happens to not only become an enemy to the egotistical right-hand man of the king (Haman), because he doesn't treat him with toady-like deference, but he also just happens to foil an assassination plot on the king early in the story. The push point in the story occurs when Haman decides to do away with Mordecai by getting the king to issue an extermination order to all of "Mordecai's people" (i.e., the Jews), which unbeknownst to both the king and Haman includes Esther as well.

There's an unusually blatant coincidence when Haman gets asked by the king what he should do to celebrate a man who was of great service to the king and had not been properly recognized. Thinking the king meant him, Haman launches into asking for a parade and a robe and the whole nine yards, and then has the rug pulled out from under him when it turns out it was Mordecai the king was planning this for. So in a made-for-sitcom moment, Haman has to do all those things he'd named for his mortal enemy. The climax of the story comes when Esther (having to step up and stop this order to save her people, because coincidentally she became queen for just such a moment) hosts a dinner for the king and Haman where she confronts Haman with her accusation and reveals that she, too, is of Mordecai's heritage. While the king steps out to get the guards to take Haman away, the sniveler tries sniveling to the queen for mercy, and of course just happens to land on top of her, so when the king returns it appears as if he's assaulting the queen on top of his other crimes.

Why do I bring all of this up? Why my sudden obsession with coincidences?

Because for most of us, coincidences are how God manifests Himself in our lives, too.

Look, life in 21st century America - or wherever you're reading this - isn't usually filled with talking burning bushes or folks turning water into wine. But I can testify to the remarkable number of times that God has made a check appear in my mailbox at precisely the time I most needed it, even if I had no idea that a check was en route. I can tell you about how a "hunch" led me to take the scenic way home, and that detour either saved me from a traffic snafu or brought me alongside something or someone I needed to see (or who needed to see me). I've written this very month about the choices of listening material made for me by factors above my pay grade which probably saved my life during bouts of desperation over my failing health.

God isn't averse to doing BIG THINGS once in awhile, even today. Miraculous cancer cures still occur. Donald Trump became president. The Western Bulldogs won the Grand Final.

But far more often, He operates on our scale. Remember, we have a high priest Who was us for awhile. He understands what the power of a small miracle can do for a life.

As my best friend constantly reminds me (her sticky-note is staring me in the face at my desk right now!), Coincidence is just when God remains anonymous.


(But, then again... Who else COULD it be?)

AFL roster analysis

[Originally published in The Roar]

      Now that the trading period and draft is over, we can start to get a feel for what the 2018 rosters will look like for each of the 18 AFL teams looking to play through to the end of September this coming year. 

     If you've read my work here before, you'll remember that I'm a maths geek and like to spend my free time crunching numbers looking for trends and predicting future performance. My track record, using my "ELO-Following Football" rating system for teams and players (and now for male and female!) has proven to be more accurate than the odds-makers and the vast majority of pundits out there. (Not by much, mind you! But more than a trivial amount!) I'm not comfortable saying "use these forecasts for gambling purposes", but you do you, y'know?

     So, trying to project what each club will have to work with next year will give us a head start on projecting what they'll accomplish in league in the fall and winter. There are two numbers to share with you in pursuit of this goal.

     One is the "Following Football" rating from last September, the year-end resultant of the on-field production using the ELO method (a zero-sum calculation where you compare expectation to result and add to the rating of the team which outperformed expectation the same amount you subtract from the rating of their opponent). As we do every season, we normalized those numbers towards the mean to address the normal tendencies during the season to spread apart; in the AFL, we find that a 20% reduction figure is about right.

     The other is new to readers of The Roar: we've taken the top 29 players on each team's projected roster (nine forwards, nine midfielders, nine backs, and two ruckman) and assigned them a point value based on their projected points for the coming season, using the previous three seasons where applicable. We've been very conservative with changes - if they were, say, the one-hundredth rated player overall last season, then (barring injury, trade, moving positions or other mitigating factors) they're probably valued as about that right now. Young players will probably improve a bit; old players will probably fade a bit. You get the idea. (Incidentally, this would be easy for you to do with fantasy values - although those values aren't quite as functional for this purpose as the ELO numbers are, because they're designed for a slightly different purpose. But I won't swear they're not as good; I've just found that this seems to work better.)

     Why 29 players, when they only field 22? By the time they reach the bye, most teams have used about that many bodies on the field. If they're fortunate, they won't have to dig any deeper - if they're GWS last year, they'll be hip deep in unused guernseys. Besides that, beyond those top 29 it becomes tougher to forecast who will come out of the feeder league bushes and show improvement enough to be given a shot. 

     So, without ado, here are those numbers (written as [total roster projected points, current team rating]):

Adelaide (3409, 74.0)

Geelong (3250, 63.3)

GWS (3143, 60.3)

Melbourne (3126, 50.1)

Port Adelaide (3124, 62.2)

Sydney (3046, 75.0)

Richmond (2959, 77.6)

Essendon (2885, 46.8)

Hawthorn (2680, 50.5)

Fremantle (2621, 24.5)

West Coast (2615, 50.3)

Collingwood (2598, 51.4)

Brisbane (2546, 27.4)

St. Kilda (2408, 50.1)

Western BD (2108, 45.7)

No. Melbourne (2062, 38.9)

Carlton (2002, 35.2)

Gold Coast (2002, 16.2)

     Some things stand out, and while it may belabor the obvious in some cases, we'll point them out anyway.

     Teams that seem to have stronger rosters than their record or rating would tell us from last year? The most prominent teams are Melbourne, up in fourth on the roster point list when they didn't make finals last year, and Fremantle, which was free-falling to the bottom at the end of the year. Their roster number indicates a .500 season or so, resting 11th overall and just ahead of the co-tenants, West Coast. Brisbane's off the bottom of the table as well, but that shouldn't be a surprise to anyone watching this young team last season!

     Which teams are surprisingly thin on talent? The names in 15th and 16th are notable: St. Kilda is at the bottom end of the middle pack, at 2408 (the average here turns out to be right around 2700, for comparison). But the Doggies look to be in trouble this year, having only the same amount of talent as the three teams deemed to have the "least talented roster" by these numbers. the Roos and the Blues, with Dew's Crews right there too. (Too's.)

     Is Western really that strapped for meritorious players? Well, with the Bont not having pulled into that highest echelon (yet) as many expected, the culling of a few veteran players, and some weaknesses disguised by a joy-filled run to the flag in 2016 that the 2017 exposed, the answer is yes. Here's the list of the five highest valued players on their list (according to our numbers) in alphabetical order: Bontempelli, Dalhaus, Hunter, Johannisen, and Macrae. All good players - but how does that stack up against almost any random AFL team? You do the comparison.  

     To fill to the 29th player, we have to include back-and-forth players like Josh Dunkley, Josh Schache, Lukas Webb, and rookie draft pick Aaron Naughton, who may be wonderful but isn't likely to be their number one option this early. While most teams have this kind of issue at the bottom (else why are those players not starting?), it speaks to the fact that the Bulldogs' roster doesn't have the kind of strength at either end that strikes fear in the hearts of other teams. 

     It was also surprising to see our two highest rated teams, Sydney and Richmond, in sixth and seventh in terms of overall roster strength. Neither team should be overly concerned about that unless there's a tidal wave of injuries that overwhelms either of them this season: doing a quick simulation that combines the current team ratings (for round one) and the roster projected team point numbers (affecting each team's rating gradually up to the bye), Sydney is still one of three teams projected to reach round 15 at 12-1 (the others are Adelaide and Geelong), and Richmond should be somewhere near 10-3 at that point as well. (Those projections assume form holds in every game, which 1/3 of the time it doesn't in the AFL! We used to include that in our forecasts, but discovered it's fruitless to be guessing when fate will blow on the dice!)

     Those projections, by the way, don't reveal anything interesting that the two numbers above don't already show. Adelaide has a great roster number and a great rating, so guess what? They're likely to win most of their games! Gold Coast has just the opposite? Guess what? It's hard to find wins for them on this schedule - although I have faith that Stewart Dew can pull them up at least a little bit.

     Which brings us to our most important intangible: coaching. What effect will Dew have on the Suns? Will an invigorated Nathan Buckley show more flair with the Magpies? In general, what effect does a year make on anything related to a team? I'm convinced that the biggest difference with Richmond in 2017, especially late in the season, was not Prestia or any other new person involved, but rather just the year of growth and experience and "settling in together" of the major players for the Tigers - a year of maturation for Dustin Martin into the prohibitive favorite and winner of the Brownlow, the coordination of the front line and the back line both with time and experience together, and so forth. I'll lay odds they didn't realize what they had until they started to win some games they didn't expect to win!

      So all of this number crunching is much ado about nothing? 

      Not really. It gives us an idea what we're supposed to be looking for this season - who might have sudden surges from their farm system mid-season. It might tell us who's working with duct tape and bailing wire to hold the team together until they can bring some youth into the fight down the road. In Brisbane's case, and perhaps Adelaide's as well, it confirms what we've been thinking about their growth as up-and-coming teams. And, frankly, it's just fun to play with. Why else would we invest so much time in "fantasy football" and tipping contests when there's no serious merit to either? Because we like it! It gives us some tangible way to "be involved" in footy, even when it's a full level removed from the "real thing".

      In a sense, this is our "cos-play". If we have Paddy Dangerfield on our fantasy team, we can watch the game from his perspective, living and figuratively dying with his every possession. If we've clicked the box next to Collingwood's name, we become invested in their performance that week in a way that we wouldn't have been before - even without money riding on the outcome, our pride alone will keep us attached. 

     So take it seriously, but no more seriously than you take the game itself. And in the end, footy IS just a game.

     [NOTE: the author was later taken out, placed in a potato sack and beaten with cricket bats for his blasphemy.]

Caterpillars - a short story

   “I’m telling you, Marty, it’s just plain stupid!”

   “What is, Thom?”

   Thom squinched his forty legs over towards his best friend, the better to be heard without raising his voice.

   “This whole pupa thing of Mother Jayce’s. It makes no sense!”

   Now Marty was fully engaged. Questioning anything Mama Jayce said was tantamount to heresy among the caterpillars. Even when it sounded as bizarre as what she had told the youngsters this morning before they went off to a full day of leaf-eating.

   “You mean how important it was to eat our fill, even past our comfort level, because…”

   “Because in two weeks we would be surrendering our lives as caterpillars and becoming pupae. Pupas? Puppies? Whatever. I’m not doing it!”

   “Yeah, whatever, Thom.”

   “I’m serious, Marty! I’m not doing it. Two weeks? What kind of life is that?”

   “It’s the life of a caterpillar, that’s what.”

   “I’ve heard,” began Thom, looking around as if a bird had flown by, “that we can live longer than two weeks if we choose to…”

    Marty looked at his friend like he was crazy as a dung beetle.

   “Outta your mind, Thom…”

   “I’m serious, Marty!”

   “Thom, if Mama Jayce says we’re becoming pupae, that’s good enough for me. I mean, how would I know, cat? I’m only three days old! Mama’s been around for…”

   “For WEEKS, Marty! Weeks! I’ll bet she’s at LEAST three, maybe four weeks old! If she can do it...so can I!”

   At the next morning’s pre-day meeting, Mama Jayce reiterated yesterday’s motivation.

   “Remember, youngsters, a caterpillar must eat his full and then some while he can! You only have two weeks to grow and shed and grow and shed and grow until it’s time for the pupa stage!”

   A commotion began towards the back when one of the caterpillars called out, “How old are YOU?”

   Mother Jayce was caught off guard. “I - I’m sorry, I didn’t catch that, youngster. What did you ask?”

   A circle cleared around Thom, Marty and others disassociating themselves from the upstart.

   “With all due respect, Mother Jayce, how old are you? Are you two weeks old yet? Or are you older than that already?”

   She smiled at the impudent fuzzball. There was always one like this.

   “First of all, child, you need to understand that you NEVER ask a woman her age, all right? It’s very improper!” There were nervous chuckles across the terrain.

   “But I’ll tell you anyway, son. I’m twenty-two days old today. And to anticipate your next question, the fact that I didn’t go into the pupa stage with my eggmates is because there are always supposed to be a few of us who stay behind to…”

   “To convince the next generation to DIE on schedule?!?”

   Despite the shock of the caterpillar class, Mother Jayce remained unperturbed.

   “To teach your generation how to be the best caterpillars you can be. To prepare you for what’s to come.”

   “To prepare us to become PUPAE!”

   Smiling beatifically, she calmly responded. “Yes. To prepare you to become pupae.”

   Squinching towards her defiant pupil, she continued full voice so that all her students could hear her next sentence:

   “Thom, all of you, listen carefully, because this may be hard for you to understand. In order to gain your fullest life, you must be willing to give it up. If you can’t let go of this life, you will lose the chance at true life.”

   He thought about it for a minute.

   “That’s stupid.”

   Still smiling, she replied, “Sometimes the wisdom of the ages seems like foolishness to the newcomer. But you’ll see, dear Thom. You’ll learn.”

   Munching on yet another leaf, number seven for the day, Marty and Thom are almost unrecognizable from that confrontational day over a week ago. They have each shed two exoskeletons, a third will burst away for each before the sun rises again, and the time is approaching when Thom’s resolve will be tested.

   “So, where DID you go yesterday afternoon, Thom? You haven’t said a word.”

   “No, no, I guess I haven’t.”

   Silence, except for the sound of munching.

   “You gonna tell me, cat?”

   Silence. Munch, munch. Silence.

   “All right. Have it your…”

   “Have you ever seen the pupae, Marty?”

   Startled, Marty responded, “Ah, well, ah, no, no, I haven’t. Why?”

   Quietly, so as not to be overheard: “I have, Marty. That’s where I was. They aren’t alive,    Marty! Mama Jayce is full of bug juice. They’re just sacks where the dead caterpillars go! Marty, they’re just fattening us up!”

   “Why?”

   It was Thom’s turn to be startled.

   “Why?”

   “Why, Thom? You’re so sure about this conspiracy theory with the pupae - why would they be having us eat so much just to kill us in the pupae? There’s no logic to that.”

   “There’s no logic to just DYING, either, Marty!” Looking both ways (not like a bird search - that would be up, not side to side), he added surreptitiously, “When the morning comes, Marty? I’m going into hiding. If Mama Jayce can survive an extra seventeen days, I can too. I’m not giving up my life just on her word that something ‘better’ is on the other side!”

   Marty looked at his fuzzy friend with eyes that reflected both awe and pity. His audacity was exceeded only by his lack of faith.

   “Do what you gotta do, Thom. But let me ask you one thing.”

   “Shoot.”

   “Caterpillars have been here, in this spot, for a long time, haven’t we?”

   “Yeah, that’s what they’ve taught us. The egg patch is the same as it’s been for generations.”

   “Right. And so generations of caterpillars have accepted the pupae as the next step, haven’t they?”

   Grudgingly, Thom admitted as much.

   “Right. So… where ARE they?”

   “What?”

   “All those old pupae. Where ARE they? If the pupa is the end of our lifespan...shouldn’t there be lots of pupaed caterpillars hanging around? Where are they?”

   And for once Thom didn’t have an answer.

   The Day came.

   As Mother Jayce and some other mentors were helping Marty and the myriad of other two week old caterpillars create their sacks, Thom was nowhere to be found.

   Marty looked around wistfully, and Mother Jayce made note of it.

   “You’re looking for your friend Thom?”

   Nod.

   “Dear, he’ll come to the light sooner or later. We all do.”

   That caught Marty’s attention. “We?”

Smiling and nodding, Jayce squinched close. “We. I was a doubter, too. That’s the reason I stayed behind all those days ago. Half a lifetime for me. I didn’t know what was on the other side of these sacks.”

   “Mama?” Marty’s bristles brushed against hers. “What IS on the other side?”

   She looked at him with moisture in her eyes.

   “Something wonderful, dear. You’ll see soon enough.”

   Thom watched the tearful scene from a distance, too far away to ascertain what was being said. It didn’t matter. Marty was going to be dead by the end of the day. They all were. And yet, there they were building their own coffins, oblivious to the lies that were being told to them.

   “In order to gain your fullest life, you must be willing to lose your life.” Bah! “Let go of this life to give yourself the chance for your true life to begin!” Hah! Ridiculous! What kind of nonsense was that, anyway? That sounds like this life isn’t important! But it’s the only life we HAVE! How can it not be worth hanging on to with every fiber of your being?

   He went on his way, munching on more leaves to try and fill the gap in his heart.

   One day, twenty-two day old Thom was off on his own, having spurned the remainder of the caterpillar community and its lies. Suddenly, his preservation instincts kicked in, as something fluttered down towards him from above.

   “Aah! A bird! A bird! Don’t eat me!”

   “Thom, stop worrying! I’m not a bird!”

   The butterfly hovered there, just above him. He’d never seen one from this close before; it was beautiful. The colors were so spectacular! In fact, the colors looked - familiar.

   “Thom, do you recognize me?”

   Why should it know my name?

   “Ahhh…. I’ll admit, you look - vaguely familiar…”

   The butterfly landed on the ground next to Thom.

   “It’s me, Thom. Marty! Don't you recognize me?”

   And then there was a wave of emotion which overwhelmed Thom: amazement, awe, happiness, astonishment...and confusion.

   “Marty, how can this be? How could you have transformed so completely into - well, an entirely different species? It’s impossible!”

    The butterfly smiled, an odd expression on an insect which doesn’t ever frown, per se.    “No, it’s what Mama Jayce told me on the day I made my pupa. We were going to become something wonderful … and she was right.

   “That’s what pupae are, Thom! They’re the world’s greatest changing rooms! Inside those magical sacks, we are transformed into these glorious bodies. And you can do this, too, Thom!”

   “What?”

   “You can still become a butterfly if you want. Just do what Mama Jayce did - hang out with a batch of newbie caterpillars, teach them the ropes, and then when the time comes, make your pupae alongside theirs and wait!”

   “But… But… but I don’t know HOW to turn into a butterfly! Did I miss the instructions somewhere along the line? How did you do it, Marty?”

   “Thom, all you have to do is believe and obey. Understand that it’s a mystery that we can’t explain, but when you go into that pupa sack, somehow your body knows what to do. I mean, it knew how to shed those things exoskeletons, right? Do you know how to do it?”

   “Ah, well, Ah, no. No, I don’t.”

   “And that’s okay! Your body will do it for you. Trust the highest forces. Thom, stop doubting and just believe for once in your analytical life, cat! Just believe!”

   With that, the new butterfly goes soaring into the world, doing twirls and flips and just enjoying life to its fullest in a way that an earth bound caterpillar simply can’t. Thom watched with a bit of envy, and her words came to him:

    “In order to gain your fullest life, you must be willing to give it up. If you can’t let go of this life, you will lose the chance at true life.”

   I wasn’t willing to give up being a caterpillar in order to become a butterfly. I didn’t realize how much more there was in store for me if I only believed. I didn’t realize how my only roadblocks were inside of me.

   Thom stopped doubting that very minute, although the change of heart wasn’t enough by itself. It requires follow-through as well. He began squinching down towards the center of the plain, where he knew the younger caterpillars would be.

   Maybe his wisdom could be of use to them.