The CFL is in mid-stride already, deep into its Week Five schedule with Edmonton sitting atop the nine-team field at 4-0 after beating Hamilton with a last-minute touchdown, 31-28. The Tiger-Cats are now last at 0-4. (Sorry, son. Sorry, Melissa... My eldest son's name is Hamilton, and my late wife's favorite teams are always the "Cats") Behind the Eskimos sits British Columbia (the Lions are 3-1 and host 2-1 Winnipeg tonight) and Calgary (the 2015 champs are 2-1-1 and awaiting 1-2 Saskatchewan tomorrow). Toronto, Montreal, and reigning Grey Cup champs Ottawa are all muddling along in the Eastern conference around or below .500, waiting for lightning to strike.
The NFL started training camps this past week, although in the modern game that doesn't mean a bunch of out-of-shape guys starting to train as much as it does bringing in your year-round fitness-training employees to teach them your team's way of doing things. (Four preseason games are too many. Cut it to three for starters, then eventually two. Just my opinion.)
But today, let's look at the upcoming Division One NCAA season, both "Bowl Subdivision" and "Championship Subdivision" (those are the NCAA terms).
What I call them is divided a bit further: the FBS has the Power Five conferences (ACC, Big Ten, Big XII, Pac 12 and SEC) who control all the money; and the Group of Five conferences (AAC, C-USA, MAC, Mountain West, and Sun Belt), who do the best they can without the financial advantages of the other five conferences.
The FCS, too, has the conferences that actually DO compete for a "national" championship at their level (as the D2, D3, and NAIA schools do), and the three who are more "intramural" in their treatment of the game. The latter three include the Ivy League, which is serious about its academics: they don't play ANY games until Sept 16th, and then refuse to participate in any post-season at all. They also include the two conferences of "Historically Black Colleges", the MEAC and the SWAC. These two send their champions to meet each other in the Celebration Bowl to crown the HBC national champion (which seems completely reasonable to me, frankly!). If the MEAC has a second school which qualifies for the FCS bracket, as North Carolina A&T did last year, they'll let them participate.
The other conferences in the FCS really ARE in it for the championship playoffs: the Big Sky, the Big South, the Colonial, the Missouri Valley, the Northeast, the Ohio Valley, the Patriot League, the Pioneer League, the Southern, and the Southland conferences.
As 2017 begins, here are the "handicaps" (we've moved from tiers to handicaps, to match our other ELO-based grading systems) for the 66 Power Five schools, the top five conferences. The lower the number, just like in golf, the better the team is:
1. Alabama (10) 2. Ohio State (13) 3. Florida State (14) 4. Clemson, Oklahoma, and USC (15).
7. Penn State (16) 8. Washington (17) 9. Michigan, Auburn, and LSU (18).
12. Wisconsin and Oklahoma St (19). 14. Louisville and Stanford (20). 16. Florida & Georgia (21).
18. Miami-FL (22) 19. Virginia Tech & Tennessee (23). 21. Kansas State (24).
22. Northwestern, Texas, West Virginia, Washington St, and Texas A&M (all 25).
27. NC St, Georgia Tech, TCU, Notre Dame, Oregon, Colorado, and Utah (all 26).
34. North Carolina, Pitt, Iowa, UCLA, and Arkansas (all 27).
39. Minnesota, Nebraska, BYU, Ole Miss (28). 43. Kentucky & Mississippi State (29).
45. Baylor and So Carolina (30). 47. Michigan St & Vanderbilt (31).
49. Indiana, Arizona State, and Missouri (32). 52. Wake Forest, Texas Tech, Oregon St, Arizona (33).
56. Boston College, Duke, Cal (34). 59. Syracuse, Maryland, and Iowa State (35).
62. Virginia and Illinois (37). 64. Purdue & Kansas (40). 66. Rutgers (42).
As you probably figured out, the conferences are color coded: Atlantic Coast, Big Ten, Big Twelve, Pac-12, and Southeastern. The two independents are left black. In theory, you can subtract one handicap from the other and get the point-differential on a neutral field under neutral conditions for a game between any two teams on these lists. But as with every pre-season list when you're dealing with youth in a set-up where there's about a 1/3 turnover every season, your results may vary!
Here are the similar rankings for the 64 schools in the Group of Five conferences: the American, Conference-USA, the Mid-American, the Mountain West, and the Sun Belt.
1. South Florida (25). 2. Boise State (29). 3. Houston, Memphis, Toledo, & San Diego State (31).
7. Appalachian State (32). 8. UCF, Navy, Tulsa, & Western Kentucky (33).
12. Temple, Western Michigan, Colorado State, Wyoming, & Troy (34). 17. Louisiana Tech (35).
18. Arkansas State (36). 19. SMU, Miami-OH, Air Force, & Army (37).
23. East Carolina, Middle Tennessee, Old Dominion, Ohio, & New Mexico (38).
28. Cincinnati, Southern Miss, UTSA, Northern Illinois, & Hawai'i (39).
33. Tulane, Marshall, & Central Michigan (40).
36. Eastern Michigan, Nevada, Utah State, Georgia Southern, and Idaho (41).
41. U Conn, Akron, & South Alabama (42). 44. Bowling Green, Ball St, & UL-Lafayette (43).
47. FAU, FIU, Rice, Kent State, and San Jose State (44).
52. North Texas, Fresno State, UNLV, Coastal Carolina, and Georgia State (45).
57. UTEP, Buffalo, New Mexico State, and UL-Monroe (46). 61. Charlotte (47).
62. U Mass (48). 63. Texas State (49). 64. Alabama-Birmingham (50).
Finally, here are the handicaps in ranking order for ALL of the 124 FCS teams to start 2017:
1. North Dakota State (32). 2. James Madison (34).
3. South Dakota St, Jacksonville St, & Sam Houston St (all 36).
6. Youngstown St & Wofford (37).
8. Eastern Washington, Charleston Southern, Richmond, & The Citadel (all 38).
12. North Dakota, Weber State, Illinois State, & Chattanooga (39).
16. Cal Poly SLO, Montana, Liberty, Villanova, & Central Arkansas (40).
21. New Hampshire, Northern Iowa, Samford (41). 24. Northern Arizona & McNeese St (42).
26. Kennesaw State & Grambling State (43).
28. Southern Utah, Albany, Western Illinois, Tennessee St, UT-Martin, Lehigh, Mercer, & Nicholls (44).
36. William & Mary, South Dakota, Eastern Illinois, Fordham, SE Louisiana, & Stephen F Austin (45).
42. Montana State, Northern Colorado, Southern Illinois, Tennessee Tech, San Diego, Furman, Penn, Princeton, and No Carolina A&T (46).
51. Delaware, Maine, Stony Brook, Colgate, Incarnate Word, Harvard, No Carolina Central, & Southern (47).
59. Portland State, Gardner-Webb, Indiana State, & Western Carolina (48).
63. Towson, Eastern Kentucky, Murray State, Dayton, Abilene Christian, Houston Baptist, Dartmouth, & Yale (49).
71. Missouri State, Duquesne, Holy Cross, Lamar, So Carolina St, & Prairie View A&M (50).
77. UC Davis, Monmouth, Bucknell, E Tennessee State (51).
81. Rhode Island, SE Missouri State, VMI, Northwestern State, Brown, & Cornell (52).
87. Presbyterian, St. Francis (PA), Lafayette, Drake, Bethune-Cookman, Hampton, & Alcorn St (53).
94. Sacramento St, Elon, Georgetown, Jacksonville, & Columbia (54).
99. Wagner, Marist, Florida A&M, Norfolk State, Alabama A&M, and Texas Southern (55).
105. Idaho State, Alabama State (56).
107. Central Connecticut St, Sacred Heart, Campbell, Morgan State, & Jackson State (57).
112. Morehead State, Howard, & Savannah State (58).
115. Bryant, Robert Morris, Austin Peay, Butler, & Delaware State (59).
120. Stetson, Valparaiso, & Mississippi Valley State (60).
123. Arkansas-Pine Bluff (61).
124. Davidson (62).
If you're looking for the extreme, consider Davidson's football team going to Tuscaloosa and playing Alabama on its home field, for their hypothetical season opener (so there are no other effects going on). The home team is usually assumed a three point advantage, so that means the 52-point spread between their current handicaps would expand to a prediction of a 55-point Crimson Tide victory. Roughly, for every eight points that a prediction is in error, we adjust the handicaps of the two teams by one. So, if Davidson were to hold Alabama to, say, a 47-point win, we would move Davidson's handicap DOWN one, and Alabama's UP one.
In reality, by the way, especially in blowouts, we take a close look at the game circumstances - did 'Bama take a 49 point lead at halftime and play the towel boys in the second half? Or did Davidson really score a couple of times on even the second string D? Was there a QB injury that skewed the results? Were they teams rested, or is one of them on a short week and the other coming off of a bye? Is it REALLY a neutral site game, or is it one team's "backyard"? Those things matter to the results, and are taken into account. But if you want to play along, that's our general rule in the game of (American or Canadian) football: adjust handicaps by a factor of 1/8 in comparison to the expected outcome (after a 3-point home advantage).
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