Let’s take a look at the top five conferences in the world of American college football, and decide which are good prospects moving forward, and which are teams we want to drop from our title expectations already...
Clemson (5-0, 3-0 ACC; rating improved from 15 in August to 11 today) - BUY
Florida State (1-2, 1-1 ACC; rating worsened from 14 in August to 17 today) - HOLD
The two favorites in the Atlantic Coast conference have moved different directions this fall, and for the same reason: quarterback play. Clemson had to replace Deshaun Watson, who’s gone to the Houston Texans and excelling there as well, and did so with Kelly Bryant - and hasn’t missed a beat. FSU, to the contrary, lost their star QB, Deondre Francois, to a season-ending injury in game one and has struggled with a true freshman. James Blackman threw a pristine pass to win the game against Wake Forest Saturday, and may have turned the corner towards leading the Seminoles to some more wins this season. We’ll have to wait and see how he progresses to know what’s in store for Florida State.
Ohio State (4-1, 2-0 Big Ten; rating improved from 13 to 11) - SELL
Penn State (5-0, 2-0 Big Ten; rating improved from 16 to 13) - BUY
The difference here has two names: Trace McSorley and Saquon Barkley. The QB McSorley has proven his step-to-the-plate leadership can hold the Nittany Lions together when things are tough, and the all-everything, do-everything Saquon Barkley’s Heisman campaign was unveiled against Indiana Saturday with a touchdown return on the opening kickoff and a halfback pass for a TD in garbage time, designed to give voters something else to add to his CV when the time comes. OSU, meanwhile, had one test so far, and failed it miserably, collapsing on national TV against Oklahoma at home, and will have to prove itself on the 28th: if they can’t beat Penn St, after a bye week, at home, while PSU is in the midst of a three-game murderer’s row, then they’re not worth discussing for the title.
Oklahoma State (4-1, 1-1 Big 12; rating improved from 19 to 14)
TCU (4-0, 1-0 Big 12; rating improved from 26 to 19)
Texas (2-2, 1-0 Big 12; rating improved from 25 to 22)
Texas Tech (3-1, 0-1 Big 12; rating improved from 33 to 29)
If you look at the Big 12, the University of Oklahoma’s a given. After their win in Columbus, Ohio, against Ohio State, all they need to do is not get their quarterback Baker Mayfield injured between now and the league title game in December - that’s when it’ll matter.
As for who their competition will be? Oklahoma State showed on Saturday night that their loss to TCU was a hiccup, not a trend. TCU didn’t play, but has two tough games coming up against West Virginia and Kansas State to show that its performance against OSU wasn’t a fluke, either. Texas looked good (but lost) against USC, and played to form to defeat non-contender Iowa State Saturday; they’ve got work to do to win even two of their next three (against K-State, Oklahoma, and OSU). Texas Tech knew this was the big test, with OSU coming into town on national TV - and they looked fairly decent, but they also showed they’re not a title contender yet.
So, as far as making the Big 12 championship game is concerned? BUY Oklahoma State, HOLD on TCU, and SELL Texas and Texas Tech.
Washington (5-0, 2-0 in the Pac-12; rating fell from 17 to 12) - BUY
Washington State (5-0, 2-0; rating fell from 25 to 22) - BUY
Oregon (4-1, 1-1; rating fell from 26 to 21) - SELL
Stanford (3-2, 2-1; rating fell from 20 to 17) - BUY
USC (4-1, 1-1; rating rose from 15 to 16) - HOLD
The Pac-12 is a real horse race, despite the pundit predictions of a Southern Cal coronation and a Sam Darnold Heisman campaign. But Southern Cal is suffering from more injuries than GWS right now, and IF they can get their starters back on the field soon enough that they haven’t fallen out of contention, they’re as good as anyone in the conference. The two Washington schools have shown that they can win by dominating and in the crunch (UW more in the former, WSU more in the latter), and both are as good as their records show. World-traveller Stanford is just now discovering its running game, with Bryce Love hitting 300 yards this week against Arizona State. I think they’re going to just get better - the question is, are they going to be “better enough” to beat Utah, Oregon, WSU, and Washington in the next six weeks? Oregon hasn’t really beaten anyone (Nebraska no longer counts), and will be exposed in the next two weeks playing WSU and Stanford.
Alabama (5-0, 2-0 in the SEC; rating fell from 10 to 5, believe it or not) - BUY, BUY, BUY!
Auburn (4-1, 2-0; rating fell from 18 to 15) - BUY
Georgia (5-0, 2-0; rating fell from 21 to 15) - BUY
Florida (3-1, 3-0; rating rose from 21 to 22) - SELL
Mississippi State (3-2, 1-2; rating fell from 29 to 25) - SELL
LSU (3-2, 0-1; rating rose from 18 to 22) - SELL, BURN, BURY
In the Southeastern Conference, it’s Alabama and the Thirteen Dwarves these days. The Crimson Tide walked into stadia these last two weeks against decent, mid-level SEC teams (Vanderbilt and Ole Miss) and demolished them by a combined 125 to 3. Nick Saban has this machine rolling as smoothly as ever, mostly because he has a quarterback who’s as good as he’s had since at least McCarron...and Jalen Hurts is only a sophomore. Next year's looking just as dominant.
As for the rest, the two teams worthy of stepping on the field against ‘Bama are Auburn, which barring a loss against the only real competition Alabama’s got (Clemson) has steamed over its four opponents in similar fashion; and surprising Georgia, who’s made both Mississippi State and Tennessee question their purpose in life the last two weeks. The two of them face off at Auburn on November 11th, and then Auburn gets to host the Tide two weeks later, probably for the SEC West title. Again.
Most likely, ‘Bama will then get to meet Georgia for the conference title the next weekend in Atlanta, barring a Cocktail Party upset by offense-less Florida. Losing its starting QB will be the last straw for the Gators, whereas the Georgia demolition was the breaking point for MSU, which was then slaughtered by Auburn Saturday night. They won’t face another team like those two - well, until November 11th, when Alabama comes to town. And LSU lost to Troy, the third-best team in the state of Alabama, on Saturday night. Heaven help them when they play the first two...
SIX OTHER TEAMS ON THE SELL IMMEDIATELY LIST:
Brigham Young (1-4 overall, rating rose from 28 to 36)
Oregon State (0-2 Pac 12; 1-4 overall, rating rose from 33 to 41)
Missouri (0-2 SEC, 1-3 overall, rating rose from 32 to 40)
Tennessee (0-2 SEC, 3-2; rating rose from 23 to 29)
Baylor (0-2 Big 12, 0-5 overall; rating rose from 30 to 33)
Boston College (0-2 ACC, 2-3 overall; rating rose from 34 to 39)
SIX OTHER TEAMS TO WATCH OUT FOR:
Purdue (0-1 Big Ten, 2-2 overall; rating improved from 40 to 32)
Wake Forest (1-1 ACC, 4-1 overall; rating improved from 33 to 27)
Georgia Tech (2-0 ACC, 3-1 overall; rating improved from 26 to 22)
Maryland (1-0 Big Ten, 3-1 overall; rating improved from 35 to 31)
Arizona (0-1 Pac 12, 2-2 overall; rating improved from 33 to 28)
Notre Dame (4-1 overall; rating improved from 26 to 19)
Looking at Week 6 coming up on the Power Five level, here are the big games at each level, with the ELO-Following Football point spread predictions:
ACC: Florida State over Miami-FL by six. (We’re also looking forward to Louisville at North Carolina State, picking the Wolfpack over UL by one; and Duke over Virginia by one point as well!)
Big Ten: Wisconsin at Nebraska, UW to win by nine. (Michigan over Michigan State by 18; Penn State over Northwestern by 11; and our personal favorite, Minnesota by two at Purdue.)
Big Twelve: West Virginia at TCU, TCU by seven. (The most interesting game, though, might be Texas by three hosting Kansas State.)
Independent: BYU hosting Boise State - Boise by two. At least. (And North Carolina’s hosting Notre Dame, with ND by eight.)
Pac 12: Oregon by four over Washington State. (Hard to believe that, personally. We also see Stanford by four over Utah, and Colorado by three over Arizona.)
SEC: LSU at Florida - home field says Gators by three. (And that’s a game that might be 3-0. We see South Carolina upsetting Arkansas by one, Kentucky over Missouri by 12, and Alabama by 18 over Texas A&M.)
[Originally published in The Roar, October 2, 2017.]
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