Highlights from throughout college football

[Originally written for The Roar, Oct 4, 2017]

The American college football landscape has 130 teams at the FBS (bowl subdivision) level, and another 124 in the lower FCS (championship subdivision). [If you really want to overwhelm yourself, there are another 500 or so at various smaller and lower or no-scholarship levels of university football. I know my limits, and 254 teams is pushing them already.]

Sometimes, with that many teams, there are surprising successes and tail-offs that get lost in the shuffle. While the press generally studies every twitch in the Alabama mystique or the Clemson defense or the Ohio State quarterback game, many of the teams below them don’t get noticed as they should. Using our exclusive “ELO-Following Football” ratings as a guide, here are a handful of teams which have defied expectations in 2017 so far:

Here are some FBS “Group of Five” teams which have improved from their pre-season rating and expectations:

SMU (4-1 overall, 1-0 in the American Athletic Conference - rating dropped from 37 to 31 since the beginning of the season). Hard to know for sure what the Mustangs have in the tank this season; their one loss was respectable to a very good TCU, and their four wins have been over unremarkable teams. We’ll know more when they play at Houston this weekend. (We’re picking Houston by five.)

Central Florida (3-0 overall, 1-0 in the AAC - rating improved from 33 to 25). UCF, on the other hand, is the real thing. Despite having two games wiped out by Hurricane Irma, they’ve managed to destroy a decent FIU team, decimate an otherwise undefeated Memphis team 40-13 Saturday, and most impressively, come off a three week “hurricane” break and annihilate the Big Ten’s up and comer, Maryland, 38-10, on enemy turf. Despite their rival South Florida’s status as media darling in the Power Five, we expect to see UCF knock them off Thanksgiving weekend and win the AAC East. (We have UCF over Cincinnati by 13 this weekend, and USF has a bye.)

UT-San Antonio (3-0 overall, 0-0 in Conference USA - rating improved from 39 to 33). The Roadrunners have been improving steadily each year, but it’s hard to know what this year’s product really is yet. Their “signature” win looks less impressive every week Baylor continues to lose. But they’ve beaten everyone they’ve played, which is all you can ask of a team. (We have them favored over Southern Miss by ten.) Speaking of which…

San Diego State (5-0, 1-0 in the Mountain West - rating dropped from 31 to 28). The Aztecs have beaten two Pac-12 teams, Arizona State and Stanford. Both were technically upsets, although neither spread was large. They’ve beaten Air Force and Northern Illinois, two decent Group of Five teams, but neither win was particularly dominant. And they’ll be favored the rest of the way out, although Boise State in two weeks and the Mountain division champ on December 2 will be challenges. Still, they haven’t really shown their best yet; they’ll be hoping for bedlam in the AAC if they want to play in their first New Year’s Six bowl game. (We expect a 17-point spread over UNLV this weekend, and are picking Boise by two over BYU in Provo, UT.)

Colorado State (3-2, 1-0, 34 → 29) may be that December opponent, if the ratings mean anything (which they probably don’t!). The Rams have routs of Oregon State and Hawaii on their record, and close losses to Alabama and Colorado to verify their qualifications. Still, they’ll have to win at New Mexico and at Wyoming, as well as beat Boise at home, to nab that title game spot. (They should beat Utah State by five this weekend.)

Troy (4-1, 1-0 Sun Belt, 34 → 33) Their rating hasn’t changed much but the team’s been impressive. After a close loss on the blue turf of Boise, the Trojans have beaten an overmatched Alabama State, a resurgent New Mexico State, Akron, and on Saturday night went into Baton Rouge and dominated one of the SEC’s finest, LSU, 24-21. Thanks to the vagaries of Sun Belt scheduling, they don’t play conference favorite Appalachian State at all, and there is no championship game in the Sun Belt. (Troy has a bye this week.) Can they be the New Year’s Six candidate? Not unless the undefeateds above stop being so undefeated…

In the lower division, the FCS, there are some surprise teams that have made themselves heard already in 2017:

Monmouth (4-1 overall, 0-0 in the Big South; rating dropped from 51 to 46) has the best overall record in the Big South, although they still have a rating worse than Charleston Southern, Liberty (who has the only FCS victory over a Power Five team, Baylor, this year), and third-year Kennesaw State. Conference play in the six-team league doesn’t start for another week or two, at which point we’ll see whether the Hawks are for real. But it seems like their predicted fifth-place finish is pessimistic at best. (They’re favored by six at equally resurgent Holy Cross.)

Elon (4-1 overall, 2-0 in the Colonial; 54 → 47), picked dead last in the CAA, sits undefeated in conference after a remarkable 6-0 victory over Albany last Saturday, following big upsets over Furman, Charleston Southern, and the conference powerhouse Richmond Spiders over the previous three weeks. Like their namesake mascot, the Phoenix has risen from the ashes of just seven wins the past three seasons to become a force in the tough Colonial Athletic Association. We have them as a pick’em game this weekend against traditional power William and Mary, but the hardest part of their schedule starts in three weeks, when they face Villanova, New Hampshire, and the defending national champions…

James Madison (5-0, 2-0 in the Colonial, 34 → 27). That would be the JMU Dukes, taking a week off after a first game sound defeat of FBS East Carolina by twenty and four healthy wins against FCS competition. By “healthy”, we mean scores like 52-10 and 75-14, although in conference foes Maine and Delaware they were held to “just” double digit victories. JMU looks as dominant as they did in the FCS playoffs last winter, with the #2 score in the ELO-Following Football ratings.

The #1 rating belongs to five-time champ North Dakota State (4-0, 1-0 Missouri Valley, 32 → 26), which has put up similar numbers in its campaign to regain its crown this season after a dominating upset by the Dukes last year in the semi-finals. They’re 17-point favorites over Indiana State Saturday, they have scores like 56-0 and 72-7 on their resume, and they’ve routed Big Sky favorite Eastern Washington 40-13 in Cheney, WA. However, they have a murderer’s row within their own conference to face before the playoffs. Starting next Saturday, they have to face Youngstown State, Western Illinois, Northern Iowa, South Dakota State, South Dakota and Illinois State in consecutive weeks (four on the road) to finish the season. The WORST of those teams is in our top 25 rated FCS teams.

And their already difficult conference is just getting stronger this season. South Dakota (4-0, 1-0; 45 → 36) and Illinois State (2-0, 4-0; 39 → 33) are also undefeated, Western Illinois (3-1, 0-1; 44 → 37) has only lost to South Dakota, and national runner-up Youngstown State (1-0, 3-1; 37→ 34) lost a 28-21 game at ACC power Pitt in week one for its only blemish. Add South Dakota State (3-1, 0-1, 36 → 34) into the title mix and you can expect the MVC to put its usual four or five teams into the 24-team championship series.

St. Francis of Pennsylvania (3-1, 1-0, 53 → 49) has emerged as the leader in the early season in the Northeast conference, as well as the one team showing significant improvement already. Similarly, Holy Cross (2-3, 1-1, 50 → 46) has been the shining light in the Patriot League, barring its incomprehensible upset to previously winless Lafayette last week, 10-7.

Central Arkansas (3-1, 2-0 in the Southland; 40 → 35) finally made the leap last week, upsetting longtime conference lead dog Sam Houston State 41-30; the conference title is theirs for the losing at this point. The Bears play a strong brand of ball that holds up well in the playoffs, but not winning the conference has meant that even if they do make the top 24, they face an Eastern Washington in their first game and are out before they can get started. With a win last week, they’ve moved into the top 10 in most FCS polls, and continued victories (like a predicted 12-point win at Houston Baptist this Saturday night) will just keep them moving up as the Missouri Valley teams knock each other off ahead of them.

Columbia (3-0, 1-0 in the Ivy League; 54 → 51) has always been one of my darlings, mostly because they’ve been “lovable losers” grasping defeat from the jaws of victory over the years with shanked punts, terrible safeties, and so forth. But this year, they’ve already matched their highest win total since 2010 with a victory at Princeton last week, and face an out-of-conference game at Marist this weekend that we have as a toss-up. Two years ago, they ended a 24-game losing streak; today, they’re on a four-game winning streak with a 50-50 shot to make it five. And all of that is almost as impressive as…

Austin Peay (3-2, 2-0 in the Ohio Valley conference; 59 → 50) is the best story in the entire FCS, and probably all of college football. They entered the season on a 27-game losing streak spanning three years and two coaches, but there were signs of life last season under new coach Will Healy. They lost two competitive games against upper-tier competition, and then won its first in 30 attempts with authority, beating Morehead State 69-13 two weeks ago. Next, they won their first conference game in three years, blasting Murray State 27-7, and last week defeated their first ranked opponent in eight years, upsetting UT-Martin with their dominating defense by the score of 7-0. Their biggest test comes this week against OVC conference champ and favorite, #4 Jacksonville State, and we see it as a 13-point JSU victory. But then, given everyrthing this AP Governors team has accomplished already, I’m not betting against them…

Finally, we want to acknowledge the powerful work being done by North Carolina A&T (5-0, 2-0 in the Metro East; 46 → 39). While most of the teams in the MEAC are slipping and losing ground to teams in better funded conferences, the Aggies are getting it done against FBS Charlotte (35-31), in-conference strongmen South Carolina State (21-7), and taking care of business when facing lower level teams like D2 Mars Hill (56-0). They made the playoffs last year when NC Central went to the Celebration Bowl as conference champs; I’d love to see A&T choose the playoffs even if they go 8-0 in conference, and make some noise in the FCS finals! (They’re 24 point favorites at home against Delaware State this Saturday.)