Ten Topics on College Football this week

 [Originally published in The Roar, Sept 19, 2017]

     We start our weekly scan of the American college football landscape with a look at the top of the heap. At the start of the season three weeks ago, the Alabama Crimson Tide was four points clear of the competition on our exclusive “ELO-Following Football” handicap system. Today, ‘Bama has been joined at the peak by Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and defending champion Clemson at 11 - and they haven’t fallen so much as the others have moved to catch them. Penn State has moved into fifth at 13, with Washington and Ohio State (playoff semifinalists last year) tied for sixth at 14, Southern Cal and Florida State tied at eighth at 15, and the University of Wisconsin tenth at 16. Eight of those teams are 3-0; Ohio St is 2-1, having lost to Oklahoma, and FSU is actually 0-1, losing once to Clemson and twice to Hurricane Irma.

    Second on our itinerary are the big games of the week, most interestingly Texas’ visit to Southern Cal in a re-creation of what’s often considered the greatest game in modern history: the 2006 Rose Bowl game, won 41-38 by Texas on a Vince Young quarterback scamper for the national championship. Saturday’s game wasn’t much less exciting: despite being a ten point underdog, Texas took the lead with 45 seconds to go, only to be caught with a last second field goal and beaten with another one in the second overtime, 27-24. The other close marquee game was in “the Swamp”, where the University of Florida thrilled the home crowd by beating SEC rival Tennessee with a 63-yard last-play “Hail Mary” pass for a game-winning touchdown. (Such TDs are called “Hail Mary”s because all the quarterback can do is throw it as far as they can and say a prayer for his own receiver to catch it.)

There are several team who’ve demonstrated already that they’re far better than projected this season, and that’s our third topic today. Vanderbilt beat their first ranked non-conference opponent in 70 years, and their handicap has dropped to 28. Purdue drubbed Missouri by 32 and has moved down eight points already to 32. The biggest mover so far has been Mississippi State, 37-7 victors over LSU. The Bulldogs have moved from 29 all the way down to 19 and into the second spot in the vaunted Southeastern Conference as they start league play.

Of course some teams, conversely, are struggling. Texas A&M, following two poor games already, started Saturday by trailing Louisiana-Lafayette at the half before remembering the hierarchy differences and scoring the only 31 points of the second half to win going away. BYU wasn’t so fortunate, putting on its third inept offensive display in losing by 34 to Wisconsin and continuing to watch their rating rise out of contention, now floating at 34. Oregon State’s played three terrible games and seen their rating rise eight full points, up to 41 and seven back of their nearest league rival.

The classic demonstration of these two trends came together in Durham, North Carolina Saturday, where Baylor continued its downward slide by losing to upward-climbing Duke, 34-20. Before the season, Baylor would have been six point favorites; they entered the week three game as nine-point underdogs. For the Bears, their predicament is doubled by the success of the rest of the league: eight of the ten teams in the misnamed Big Twelve have improved from their initial rating, and the other team is perennial spoon Kansas. Add the pending sex-abuse lawsuits, and Baylor’s 0-3 start is JUST the start of their troubles.

At least that game was between teams expecting an equal footing. More than any other sport, college football has intentional mismatches on the schedules. Often, in the first few weeks, they’re meant to be “warm-ups”, since there’s no pre-season; too often, they’re what are called “body bag” games”: a Power Five school pays six figures to a lower-level team to come to their stadium to be beaten by five touchdowns, fill the stands so their fans can tailgate and celebrate an easy victory. Three middling Southern Conference teams (Furman, Samford, and Mercer Universities) accepted paydays to travel to top-level schools in the region Saturday (North Carolina State, Georgia, and Auburn, respectively). The results were mixed, although all three lost. Furman was beaten soundly by the Wolfpack, 49-16; Samford held its own for awhile before Georgia pulled away, 42-14; and Mercer continued its season of improvement, reducing its handicap to 39 and holding the Tigers to 24 points in a two-TD loss.

But occasionally, David actually manages to slay Goliath. Taylor University, a program so insignificant that the NCAA doesn’t even recognize them in its membership, took Butler to the limit in a 27-21 loss: the Pioneer League Bulldogs had to score a touchdown with seven seconds to go. The Nevada Wolfpack (of the FBS Mountain West) paid lowly Idaho State of the FCS (2-9 each of the last two years) $300,000 to upset and embarrass them 30-28. The Bengals were actually up 30-7 forty minutes into the game before Nevada remembered they had the better players, and scored three touchdowns before falling short and failing to recover an “onside” kickoff attempt in the last minute.

Not every intersectional battle is a mismatch. Charlotte of the FBS Conference USA lost to the reigning MEAC champ North Carolina A&T 35-31, and despite being in a low-level league playing the FBS 49ers, NCA&T was justifiably a four point favorite. Northern Illinois celebrated their 21-17 victory at Nebraska like it was their biggest upset victory ever, and while the Big Ten Cornhuskers were twelve point favorites, it wasn’t really a huge shock. Meanwhile, when fellow MAC denizen Ohio defeated fellow Power Five Kansas 42-30, they had actually been favored by seven. San Diego State upset Stanford and Memphis beat UCLA, but despite playing up a level both teams were only single digit underdogs.

Topic eight is a dive into the lower half of Division 1, the FCS (or Football Championship Subdivision). Last year’s powerhouses, defending champion James Madison University and the five-time champion JMU dethroned, North Dakota State, have come out swinging for the fences. Both teams have lowered their ELO-FF handicaps to 27, six points clear of any other FCS competition. NDSU rattled cages in week one with a 72-7 win against Mississippi Valley State, while James Madison returned serve last week by demolishing Norfolk State 75-14.

If any FCS teams are going to be able to challenge those two juggernauts, it will probably come from the next dozen rated teams: South Dakota State (33), Illinois State (34), and Youngstown State (35), all from NDSU’s Missouri Valley Conference; Sam Houston State (35), Richmond (down to 36 after a 68-21 demolition of Howard), the Citadel (36), and the collection of teams at 37: Jacksonville State, Liberty, Villanova, South Dakota, Wofford and Central Arkansas.

The aftermath of the hurricanes which hit the Gulf Coast and Florida are still being felt, and will be for many months and perhaps years. The first game played by the University of Houston was this past Saturday against the recent Australian visitors from nearby Rice University, and they presented a united front for the community - both teams wore “Houston Strong” decals, and both bands presented a combined show at halftime saluting the thousands of workers and volunteers who have made it possible for life to continue in southeastern Texas. (Houston won the game easily, 38-3.)

And finally, victory for Austin Peay University, an Ohio Valley conference school located in Clarksville, Tennessee. APU changed coaches at the end of 2015, 16 games into what would become a 29-game losing streak, longest in the nation. Head Coach Will Healey made significant progress with the Governors last season, despite the 0-11 record: they came within a touchdown of Mercer and one point of beating Tennessee Tech last year. This season started with closer than expected games against higher-level competition in Cincinnati and Miami of Ohio, but once they got a team in their level - Morehead State - they didn’t waste their opportunity. Scoring 42 in the first half alone, they routed MSU 69-13 and the close to sell out crowd of nine thousand swarmed the field with seventeen seconds still to play, cancelling the rest of the game when in their enthusiasm they tore down both sets of goalposts in celebration. Here’s a guarantee it won’t be another 29 games before they win again, although they are six point underdogs next week at Murray State.