Three of the four independents (BYU, U-Mass, and Army-West Point) are not considered "Power Five" teams (Notre Dame is). But I happen to keep them all together in my record keeping - apologies if doing so confused you.
So today, let's look at the other 62 teams - the remaining members of the 65 "Group Of Five" conferences. As with yesterday, we went through every scheduled game and used the ELO-Following Football handicap system to predict the likely outcome. That doesn't mean there won't be upsets - you can virtually guarantee that any predictions will be at least slightly wrong! Each team is listed with its predicted conference record and then its overall record:
As a refresher, we had BYU at 10-3, Army-West Point at 7-5, and U-Mass at 1-11.
American Athletic Conference
AAC East Division) AAC West Division)
South Florida (8-0) 12-0 Tulsa (7-1) 9-3
Temple (6-2) 9-3 Houston (5-3) 8-4
Central Florida (5-3) 7-5 Memphis (5-3) 7-5
East Carolina (3-5) 3-9 Navy (4-4) 7-5
Cincinnati (2-6) 4-8 SMU (2-6) 5-7
Connecticut (0-8) 1-11 Tulane (1-7) 4-8
AAC title game: USF def. Tulsa by 8 points.
Conference USA
C-USA East Division) C-USA West Division)
Western Kentucky (8-0) 11-1 Louisiana Tech (7-1)* 9-3
Middle Tennessee (7-1) 8-4 UT-San Antonio (7-1) 9-3
Marshall (5-3) 7-5 Southern Miss (5-3) 7-5
Old Dominion (5-3) 7-5 Rice (3-5) 3-9
Charlotte (2-6) 4-8 North Texas (2-6) 4-8
Florida Atlantic (2-6) 3-9 UT-El Paso (2-6) 2-10
Florida International (1-7) 2-10 Alabama-Birmingham (0-8) 1-11
*Louisiana Tech def. UTSA wk 13.
C-USA title game: WESTERN KENTUCKY def. Louisiana Tech by 2 points.
(LaTech and MTSU will only lose in conference to WKU; WKU's only loss will be to Vanderbilt.)
Mid-American Conference
MAC East Division) MAC West Division)
Ohio (6-2) 9-3 Toledo (8-0) 11-1
Miami-OH (5-3) 7-5 Western Michigan (7-1) 9-3
Akron (4-4) 5-7 Northern Illinois (5-3) 6-6
Buffalo (2-6) 4-8 Eastern Michigan (4-4) 4-8
Kent State (2-6) 3-9 Central Michigan (3-5) 4-8
Bowling Green (1-7) 1-11 Ball State (2-6) 4-8
MAC title game: TOLEDO def. Ohio by 7 points.
Mountain West Conference
MW Mountain Division) MW West Division)
Boise State (7-1) 9-3 San Diego State (8-0) 10-2
Colorado State (6-2) 8-4 Nevada (4-4) 5-7
Wyoming (6-2) 8-4 Hawaii (3-5) 5-7
Air Force (4-4) 6-6 San Jose State (2-6) 2-11
New Mexico (4-4) 6-6 UNLV (1-7) 2-10
Utah State (2-6) 3-9 Fresno State (1-7) 2-10
Air Force (4-4) 6-6 San Jose State (2-6) 2-11
New Mexico (4-4) 6-6 UNLV (1-7) 2-10
Utah State (2-6) 3-9 Fresno State (1-7) 2-10
Mountain West title game: BOISE STATE def. San Diego State by 2 points.
Sun Belt Conference
Appalachian State (8-0) 11-1
Arkansas State (8-0) 9-3
Troy (7-1) 9-3
Idaho (5-3) 8-4
UL- Monroe (5-3) 5-7
Georgia Southern (4-4) 6-6
UL-Lafayette (4-4) 5-7
South Alabama (4-4) 5-7
Coastal Carolina (2-6) 5-7
Georgia State (2-6) 3-9
Texas State (1-7) 2-10
New Mexico State (0-8) 1-11
Sun Belt title game is non-existent. Not only do App State and Ark St never meet in the regular season (for several years in a row now), but there's no title game to decide the champion on the field, either. Arkansas State and Appalachian State will be co-champions, again. (Could be worse. Before Week 14, Troy University was 7-0 along with the two others - Arkansas State plays Troy on December 2nd, to eliminate one of the unbeatens.) Were they to play on a neutral field, the ELO-Following Football computer has Appalachan State as a 4-point favorite.
Random thoughts...
If Idaho is good enough to place fourth in the Sun Belt (5-3 in conference, eight wins and bowl eligibility in their forecast), it's tragic that the conference will be kicking them out because of the distance issues the teams face travelling to Las Cruces, New Mexico or Moscow, Idaho.
Being a Boise State fan, it's hard to see them projected for three losses (yeah, our standards are a bit high!), edged out by Wazzu (Washington State), BYU, and San Diego State - all road games. If the Broncos get the Aztecs at HOME for the final, they'll win the rematch.
Coastal Carolina's first season in the big leagues is projected to produce five wins, better than most teams manage...
So many conferences have one division that's FAR stronger than the other - the MW Mountain, the MAC West, the SEC West, and so forth. On the other hand, C-USA and the AAC end up fairly well balanced this season, although both have had issues in the past (the AAC West was absurdly dominant just two years ago). Moral of the story - don't place teams based on strength, because that'll change regularly.
South Florida is forecast by virtually every prognosticator to be the Group of Five rep in the New Year's Six Bowls, the games where the big money is found. (A "regular" bowl game gives out something like a million dollars; the New Year's Six are more like twelve million.) But edging their way into the College Football Playoff is absurd.
Finally, here are some interesting games and far-too-early predictions for "Group of Five" teams this season:
Week Zero - Aug 26) South Florida looked terrible for the first quarter at San Jose State, before pulling out a 42-22 victory.
Week 1 - Sept 2) Lots of interesting games challenging Power Five teams, but Troy goes to Boise (loses), Colorado St v. Colorado (Buffaloes win), Houston over UTSA (in San Antonio - if Houston can get out of town), Temple losing close to Notre Dame, and Western Michigan (last year's 13-0 darling) having no chance at USC.
Week 2 - Sept 9) Western Kentucky should WIN at Illinois, San Diego State should lose a tight one with Arizona State, Louisiana Tech and Marshall should stay close at Mississippi State and North Carolina State, respectively; and New Mexico will win the battle of the Land of Enchantment against New Mexico State.
Week 3 - Sept 16) The big game of the C-USA season: WKU over Louisiana Tech in a shootout AT Western Kentucky (the key). Ohio gets a Power Five win over Kansas (it still counts!), but San Diego State will fall short at Stanford, UL-Lafayette loses to Texas A&M, Central Michigan gets a shot at Syracuse but misses in the end, South Florida defeats Illinois, and Northern Illinois comes close at Nebraska.
Week 4 - Sept 23) Lafayette wins the battle of Louisiana against UL-Monroe, and Appalachian State defeats Wake Forest on the road. South Florida defeats Temple to take a lead in the division it will never relinquish, and Boise State takes care of Virginia with ease. There are also, of course, another handful of games where a team like Kent State travels to a powerhouse like Louisville to get hammered by forty points or more and collect a million dollar paycheck. In some cases, it keeps the program afloat for another year. In others, it continues to demoralize the players and the program.
Week 5 - Sept 30) Temple defeats Houston, and Tulsa defeats Navy. (The changing of the guard in the AAC continues.) Miami of Ohio gets to play in front of "Touchdown Jesus" and lose to Notre Dame.
Week 6 - Oct 7) Navy defeats Air Force in the first of the three-game round robin for the Commander-In-Chief's trophy. (Both teams will beat Army, and Navy will win the trophy this season.) Boise State loses a close one at BYU.
Week 7 - Oct 14) Boise loses twice in a row, losing at San Diego State. Louisiana-Monroe wins its third straight in conference to become a threat, while Troy, Appalachian State and Arkansas State all remain undefeated above them. Old Dominion wins a key game at Marshall. Tulsa beats Houston and Memphis defeats Navy, while UCF beats ECU in the AAC. (Acronyms. Gotta love 'em.)
Week 8 - Oct 21) Houston holds serve at home against Memphis on a Thursday night game. Boise gets its revenge on Wyoming. In Michigan, Western beats Eastern. Louisiana Tech wins at home v. Southern Mississippi. Western Kentucky wins a tough game at Old Dominion, and UL-Lafayette loses at Arkansas State.
Week 9 - Oct 28) Marshall beats FIU, Colorado State defeats Air Force, Wyoming upends New Mexico, and Troy beats Georgia Southern to stay undefeated in the Sun Belt. The mid-week "#MACtion" games begin this week, and from Thursday, Oct 26th until Wednesday, Nov 22nd, there will be a football game on the television every evening, college or pro. Heaven or hell, depending on your bent.
Week 10 - Nov 4) South Florida beats Houston and Temple defeats Navy in a rematch of last year's title game. Ohio seals its division by winning against Miami-Ohio, and Western Michigan conquers Central Michigan to win the imaginary "Directional Michigan" trophy. Air Force flies past Army, and Wyoming defeats Colorado State, clearing the path for a Boise State division title down the road.
Week 11 - Nov 11) WKU smashes Marshall to go 6-0 in conference; Boise State beats Colorado State in the Rams' beautiful new stadium which just opened during Week Zero. Appalachian State wins a key game at home versus Georgia Southern.
Week 12 -Nov 18) USF beats Tulsa in a preview of the AAC title game in two weeks; it's Tulsa's only loss in conference this year. Navy loses to Notre Dame again. Boston College defeats U-Conn in Fenway Park, which will be a spectacle! Air Force loses in Boise, and Nevada loses in San Diego. Western Michigan defeats Northern Illinois on a Wednesday, as we're deep into the month of solid football.
Week 13 - Nov 25) South Florida beats Central Florida and caps its perfect regular season, the only one in the Group of Five. (It still has to win the title game, however, because the rules say that the team invited into the New Year's games must be a conference champ.) Nevada defeats UNLV to win the state's battle, Toledo conquers defending champion Western Michigan to take the MAC East, and Louisiana Tech hands UT-San Antonio its only conference loss to knock it out of title contention.
Week 14 - Dec 2) Besides being title week (and our ELO-FF projections are above for those), the Sun Belt has a week of games here - the key one being Arkansas State hosting and defeating Troy, keeping the Sun Belt from a three-way tie. (Two's bad enough.) App State hosts UL-Lafayette, who should give them a good game before succumbing. Idaho will win its final regular season game as a Sun Belt member and as an FBS member, rejoining the lower-division FCS Big Sky Conference in all sports next fall. New Mexico State will be staying in the Group of Five as an independent next year, but loses its 11th game of the year at South Alabama in its Sun Belt swan song.
Week 15 - Dec 9) One game on the schedule. Army/Navy. And I hope it stays this way for the foreseeable future. This game's history alone deserves its place on the calendar. (Navy will start a new winning streak.)
Being a Boise State fan, it's hard to see them projected for three losses (yeah, our standards are a bit high!), edged out by Wazzu (Washington State), BYU, and San Diego State - all road games. If the Broncos get the Aztecs at HOME for the final, they'll win the rematch.
Coastal Carolina's first season in the big leagues is projected to produce five wins, better than most teams manage...
South Florida is forecast by virtually every prognosticator to be the Group of Five rep in the New Year's Six Bowls, the games where the big money is found. (A "regular" bowl game gives out something like a million dollars; the New Year's Six are more like twelve million.) But edging their way into the College Football Playoff is absurd.
Finally, here are some interesting games and far-too-early predictions for "Group of Five" teams this season:
Week Zero - Aug 26) South Florida looked terrible for the first quarter at San Jose State, before pulling out a 42-22 victory.
Week 1 - Sept 2) Lots of interesting games challenging Power Five teams, but Troy goes to Boise (loses), Colorado St v. Colorado (Buffaloes win), Houston over UTSA (in San Antonio - if Houston can get out of town), Temple losing close to Notre Dame, and Western Michigan (last year's 13-0 darling) having no chance at USC.
Week 2 - Sept 9) Western Kentucky should WIN at Illinois, San Diego State should lose a tight one with Arizona State, Louisiana Tech and Marshall should stay close at Mississippi State and North Carolina State, respectively; and New Mexico will win the battle of the Land of Enchantment against New Mexico State.
Week 3 - Sept 16) The big game of the C-USA season: WKU over Louisiana Tech in a shootout AT Western Kentucky (the key). Ohio gets a Power Five win over Kansas (it still counts!), but San Diego State will fall short at Stanford, UL-Lafayette loses to Texas A&M, Central Michigan gets a shot at Syracuse but misses in the end, South Florida defeats Illinois, and Northern Illinois comes close at Nebraska.
Week 4 - Sept 23) Lafayette wins the battle of Louisiana against UL-Monroe, and Appalachian State defeats Wake Forest on the road. South Florida defeats Temple to take a lead in the division it will never relinquish, and Boise State takes care of Virginia with ease. There are also, of course, another handful of games where a team like Kent State travels to a powerhouse like Louisville to get hammered by forty points or more and collect a million dollar paycheck. In some cases, it keeps the program afloat for another year. In others, it continues to demoralize the players and the program.
Week 5 - Sept 30) Temple defeats Houston, and Tulsa defeats Navy. (The changing of the guard in the AAC continues.) Miami of Ohio gets to play in front of "Touchdown Jesus" and lose to Notre Dame.
Week 6 - Oct 7) Navy defeats Air Force in the first of the three-game round robin for the Commander-In-Chief's trophy. (Both teams will beat Army, and Navy will win the trophy this season.) Boise State loses a close one at BYU.
Week 7 - Oct 14) Boise loses twice in a row, losing at San Diego State. Louisiana-Monroe wins its third straight in conference to become a threat, while Troy, Appalachian State and Arkansas State all remain undefeated above them. Old Dominion wins a key game at Marshall. Tulsa beats Houston and Memphis defeats Navy, while UCF beats ECU in the AAC. (Acronyms. Gotta love 'em.)
Week 8 - Oct 21) Houston holds serve at home against Memphis on a Thursday night game. Boise gets its revenge on Wyoming. In Michigan, Western beats Eastern. Louisiana Tech wins at home v. Southern Mississippi. Western Kentucky wins a tough game at Old Dominion, and UL-Lafayette loses at Arkansas State.
Week 9 - Oct 28) Marshall beats FIU, Colorado State defeats Air Force, Wyoming upends New Mexico, and Troy beats Georgia Southern to stay undefeated in the Sun Belt. The mid-week "#MACtion" games begin this week, and from Thursday, Oct 26th until Wednesday, Nov 22nd, there will be a football game on the television every evening, college or pro. Heaven or hell, depending on your bent.
Week 10 - Nov 4) South Florida beats Houston and Temple defeats Navy in a rematch of last year's title game. Ohio seals its division by winning against Miami-Ohio, and Western Michigan conquers Central Michigan to win the imaginary "Directional Michigan" trophy. Air Force flies past Army, and Wyoming defeats Colorado State, clearing the path for a Boise State division title down the road.
Week 11 - Nov 11) WKU smashes Marshall to go 6-0 in conference; Boise State beats Colorado State in the Rams' beautiful new stadium which just opened during Week Zero. Appalachian State wins a key game at home versus Georgia Southern.
Week 12 -Nov 18) USF beats Tulsa in a preview of the AAC title game in two weeks; it's Tulsa's only loss in conference this year. Navy loses to Notre Dame again. Boston College defeats U-Conn in Fenway Park, which will be a spectacle! Air Force loses in Boise, and Nevada loses in San Diego. Western Michigan defeats Northern Illinois on a Wednesday, as we're deep into the month of solid football.
Week 13 - Nov 25) South Florida beats Central Florida and caps its perfect regular season, the only one in the Group of Five. (It still has to win the title game, however, because the rules say that the team invited into the New Year's games must be a conference champ.) Nevada defeats UNLV to win the state's battle, Toledo conquers defending champion Western Michigan to take the MAC East, and Louisiana Tech hands UT-San Antonio its only conference loss to knock it out of title contention.
Week 14 - Dec 2) Besides being title week (and our ELO-FF projections are above for those), the Sun Belt has a week of games here - the key one being Arkansas State hosting and defeating Troy, keeping the Sun Belt from a three-way tie. (Two's bad enough.) App State hosts UL-Lafayette, who should give them a good game before succumbing. Idaho will win its final regular season game as a Sun Belt member and as an FBS member, rejoining the lower-division FCS Big Sky Conference in all sports next fall. New Mexico State will be staying in the Group of Five as an independent next year, but loses its 11th game of the year at South Alabama in its Sun Belt swan song.
Week 15 - Dec 9) One game on the schedule. Army/Navy. And I hope it stays this way for the foreseeable future. This game's history alone deserves its place on the calendar. (Navy will start a new winning streak.)
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