A month of thankfulness. Part One

I want to share these posts with you, to help you consider what you are thankful for. Perhaps some are identical, perhaps some are analogous, perhaps some are completely foreign to you. But the thing that should stick with you is having an ATTITUDE of GRATITUDE, always. Just this one simple change in your life, on its own, can transform you.

Some of the details of these posts are rather personal; obviously, I'm not revealing anything i don't want to reveal. At this late stage, my life is an open book for reading and enhancement of others. But it also means there may be things which don't make sense because you don't know my background. Hopefully it will be clear enough in context, but leave a comment if there's something that's unclear, and I'll clarify. May God bless you in this season of thankfulness. 

A month of thanks. No different than any other month, except the thanks are also on this blog.

Nov 1. I thank God that I am one of His Elect. First and foremost, I am thankful for my relationship with Jesus Christ, my Lord and Savior.

A month of thanks. No different than any other month, except the thanks are also on this blog. 

Nov 2. I am thankful for having Dana in my life. The fact that she loves me is more than I can believe most days. I’m unable to drive any distance anymore, so she ends up having to come see me most of the time, as I tremble in pain at the end of each day. I don't know how she puts up with it. I’m so glad she wasn’t here last night (or worse yet, that I wasn’t there) because I spent the whole night screaming in pain. As amazed as I am at her love, I almost literally couldn’t do without her now. She is a literal God-send, brought to me by a Lord Who knows that I need to submit to His Will, and be willing to allow her to help me even when my stubbornness and pride fight against it. She is the perfect partner at the perfect time of my life, and I will never, never be able to thank her sufficiently for what she means to me in these last years of my life.

A month of thanks. No different than any other month, except the thanks are also on this blog. 

Nov 3. I am thankful for this school district. The Jerome school district (specifically Eric Anderson) graciously kept me employed when I couldn’t keep stick-waving once I got sick, putting me in charge of the alternative school (a much more sedentary job). But after two more years of deterioration it was clear I couldn’t even handle that job any more on my own, so rather than encourage me to retire, the district (specifically Dale Layne) brought on an assistant, an amazing woman who deserves a day of thanks all her own.

Now, 2 1/2 years of increasing pain and fatigue down the road, it’s time to throw in the towel. But because the district was willing to let me start each year despite the doubt over my ability to finish that year, I have the flexibility to start looking into disability retirement mid-year, and the district (specifically Gina Cakebread) is helping with the paperwork.

When I taught band, the district treated me like royalty. Once I couldn’t do what I was hired for, they still treat me like royalty. And I am so thankful to have this be my last stop in the field.

A month of thanks. No different than any other month, except the thanks are also on this blog. 

Nov 4. I am so thankful for Wendy Somerset, who Dale Layne called in to be my assistant after I'd run the alternative school for two years. I was continuing to deteriorate, and my superintendent realized I wouldn't make it through another year of that alone.

What he probably didn't know was what an angel God was sending me through him. She took as her professional mission the task of keeping me teaching for as long as she possibly could - and I guarantee the last three years would have been literally impossible. She has taken everything off my shoulders that she possibly could. There have been more and more occasions when all I could do was sit in a chair while she did virtually everything, and she does - and not only never complains, but complains if I TRY to do something when I'm clearly not up to it. I walked in Thursday, hobbling in pain, and she hollered, "What are you doing here? Go home! I've got this." So I turned around and walked out the door momentarily, freaking the students out as she explained to them why she was playing mom.

Because she's not only my teaching partner, she's my "den mom", my Christian sister, my angel, my career support, and (except for Dana) my best friend. And it broke her heart as much as mine when I had to call PERSI about retirement paperwork.

A month of thanks. No different than any other month, except that it’s on this blog. 

Nov 5. I am thankful for my parents. My mother, Dorothy Alice Smith, was an amazing woman. My father, Stanley Eugene Smith, was a brilliant man. And as is the case with most children, I didn’t appreciate them sufficiently when they were alive.

Mom died when I was 20; Dad, when I was 27. They never met Wendy. They never met Dana. They never got to meet their grandchildren. They did know Melissa, and my kids were always astounded to hear stories of teenaged Gordon from her. But most of all, they got to see their grandparents through someone else’s eyes besides mine.

Through mine, what they see is love - respect - affection - hugs - wit - brilliance - and the desire to help anyone, everyone who needed it. Above all, they were teachers: not just professionally, but personally. It was a privilege to grow up with them in my life.

Conference championship weekend in college football!

            This Saturday is the penultimate event on the FBS calendar in American collegiate football – the weekend when all the conference championships are determined, and the bowl invitations are passed out, including the four most treasured invites to the National Championship playoff games.

            We had a good predictive week last week, going 54 and 10 in our forecasts overall and 20-6 in the games we shared in this space last week. We use the ELO-Following Football rating system: not a complicated rating system in its essence, where we simply compare the game results to the ratings’ predictions and then adjust the new ratings by zero to four points towards the team that did better than expectations.

            For example, we expected Florida State to beat Florida by four points. They ended up winning 38-22, a sixteen-point margin, which happens to equate to FSU improving by a point and Florida adding a point to their rating. On the other hand, the system expected Tennessee to defeat Vanderbilt by nine; instead, they were routed 42-24. (It didn’t account for the change in coaches, primarily.) So Vandy improved by three points, and the Volunteers dropped three more points away from the top, as they should, being worse than we thought they were. The “ELO” element ensures that there’s a balance between what one team gains and its opponent loses; we have criteria that tampers with that element on rare occasions, but in principle that’s what happens.

            In the FBS games we predicted, we went 12-5. The five we missed included the Tennessee game we just mentioned, Ole Miss’ upset of Mississippi State (and MSU then lost their coach to Florida! Bad day for them!), Nevada’s surprise loss to their in-state rivals at UNLV, 23-16, Miami’s let-down at Pittsburgh (the second year in a row Pitt has upset a top-2 team in the stretch drive…but last year, it was Clemson, which came back to win the title!), and the huge upset in Auburn, Alabama, where the Tigers handled the Crimson Tide 28-16.

            Our winning picks included Washington (routed WSU 41-14), Ohio State and Wisconsin in the Big Ten, Clemson (over South Carolina), UCF (49-42 winners on a kick-off return for a touchdown to win the game in the fourth quarter), NC State, Georgia, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Stanford, and Toledo. Oh, and Iowa trounced Nebraska 56-14, which caused Nebraska to fire their coach after a 4-8 season, and greedily eye the young man running the 11-0 Central Florida team, Scott Frost, who just happens to be a former Nebraska quarterback…

            Coach raiding is (unfortunately) a way of life in any sports system where you have so many different levels of the activity so interconnected: Power Five, Group of Five, FCS, Division 2, Division 3, and so on down the line. Even cross-pollination like Florida taking in-conference rival Mississippi State’s coach Dan Mullen can happen when there’s such a discrepancy in money and facilities availability. But most often intra-conference or other parallel moves only happen when there’s some local connection, like Nebraska’s hoping will happen with the UCF coach, Scott Frost, who led the Cornhusker team to a national championship 20 years ago.

            Let’s take a look at the nine conference championship games set for this Saturday (the Sun Belt does not play a title game):

            Clemson v Miami-Florida in Charlotte for the ACC title (we have Clemson by 8; Vegas says 9.5 points).

            Ohio State v Wisconsin in Indianapolis for the Big Ten (we see Ohio St by three; Vegas doubles that).

            TCU at Oklahoma for the Big Twelve (we say OU by six; Vegas says seven).

            Auburn v Georgia at Atlanta for the SEC (Vegas picks Georgia to gain revenge on Auburn, favoring them by 2.5; we see the game as a toss-up.)

Stanford v USC in Santa Clara for the Pac-12 championship (we say Stanford by four; Vegas goes with Southern Cal by three. Should be interesting!).

            Memphis at Central Florida for the American conference (UCF by five. Regardless of who wins, the winner here is the Group of Five’s New Year’s Six representative.)

            North Texas at Florida Atlantic for Conference-USA’s title (Vegas says FAU by ten; we say 13.)

            Toledo v. Akron in Detroit for the MAC title (Toledo is favored by 14 on our board and 20 in Las Vegas)

            Fresno State at Boise State for the Mountain West (the rerun of last weekend’s 28-17 Fresno win is predicted to go the other way this Saturday – we say Boise by 7; Vegas says 9.)

            And in the Sun Belt, the two games that will informally determine the champion are Troy at Arkansas State (both are 6-1 in conference, and ASU is a 2-point favorite) and Appalachian State hosting Louisiana-Lafayette (where they are 16 point favorites on our board, 15 in Vegas) to stay tied with the Troy/ASU winner at one loss in conference. IF they lose to ULL, then the winner of Troy/ASU will be the sole champion of the Sun Belt conference. (For a change!)

            After those games have been played on Saturday, we expect the announcement Sunday evening about the four teams chosen for the National Championship semifinals. The consensus opinion at the moment is that the winner of the SEC title game is in, and the winner of the ACC title game is also in. Following that, IF the Oklahoma Sooners can win the Big Twelve title game (at home) and IF Wisconsin stays undefeated by winning against Ohio State in the Big Ten (that would be a slight upset), then those two teams are in the final four as well, and we’re settled.

IF one or both of those teams lose, then what?

Do you put a one-loss Alabama team in, losing only to a possible SEC champion on the road, over a two-loss Ohio State who may be playing the best ball in the country right now? Or do you consider TCU with two losses? Or Wisconsin with one loss to the only highly-ranked team they played? Or Southern Cal with two losses if they win the Pac-12? Do you consider Miami/Clemson/Georgia/Auburn if they’ve lost their conference championship games? What about a 12-0 Central Florida team in the “little” American Athletic Conference?

Personally, I’d consider TCU or Ohio State first, as conference champs, even with two losses – and therefore even Stanford or USC. Alabama is unquestionably the best of the teams not playing this weekend, and has the best record of the “losers” to boot. And I know I’m a Group of Five blowhard, but I’d consider 12-0 UCF, an AAC titlist, over a three-loss non-champ any day of the week. Maybe even a two-loss team.

It will be interesting, unless Wisconsin and Oklahoma make it easy for the committee. (This is why, as much as I hate the idea, an eight-team tournament makes so much sense. Five Power Five conference champs, one from the Group of Five, and two wild cards. I love four teams – it just feels right – but four available slots when there are five conferences in charge is stupid.)

           

            On to the FCS level, where seven of our eight predictions came up golden – but like everyone else, we underestimated the weak Pioneer League’s strong champion, the San Diego Toreros. San Diego was expected to be easy fodder for Northern Arizona, third in the powerful Big Sky conference – instead, USD destroyed NAU 41-10, with Northern Arizona’s only touchdown coming in garbage time in the late fourth quarter.

Otherwise, however, we were perfect: Stony Brook wiped out Lehigh 59-29 (we’d underestimated and said 12 points); Weber State beat Western Illinois 21-19 in the best game of the weekend (we picked them by three); New Hampshire beat Central Connecticut 14-0 (we’d thought a ten-point margin was about right). Northern Iowa was supposed to win by nine – well, try 39 instead: they routed Monmouth 46-7. Furman was a 10-point favorite over our sentimental preference, Elon, and were it not for a failed two-point conversion, they would have taken Furman to overtime or won outright, rather than losing 28-27. Kennesaw State did indeed win handily over a strong Samford team, 28-17; and while Nicholls State put up a good fight, South Dakota held to their four-point advantage up, winning 38-31.

This coming Saturday, we expect all of the rested, seeded teams to be victorious over these eight winners, with the possible exception of Furman (we see a tossup at Wofford) and South Dakota (we see Sam Houston State as a five-point favorite, but others have USD as the favorite there). Here are our ELO-FF predictions:

Weber State @ Southern Utah (-3).

Kennesaw State @ Jacksonville State (-6).

New Hampshire @ Central Arkansas (-19).

Stony Brook @ James Madison (-20).

Northern Iowa @ South Dakota State (-8).

South Dakota @ Sam Houston State (-5).

San Diego @ North Dakota State (-17).

Furman @ Wofford (even).

            Almost everyone who’s paid attention to the FCS this year is simply waiting for the first Saturday of 2018, when we all presume James Madison University will try to defend its newly won title against five-time-previous winner North Dakota State in Frisco, Texas. We’re treating all the rest of these games as just entertaining window dressing to keep us occupied until the two powerhouses meet on January 6^th for all the marbles.

Plus, there’s the SWAC championship, where the winner goes to the Celebration Bowl to face North Carolina A&T for the HBC (Historically Black College) championship: Alcorn State @ Grambling State (-18), after a GSU victory over their chief rival Southern University last weekend.

[Originally published in The Roar, Nov 29, 2017]

And Down The Stretch They Come!

            The final regular season week is here for the FBS schools in college football, which determines who goes to conference championship games, who goes to one of the 39 bowl games, and eventually which four teams are selected to play January football for the national championship. It’s also the beginning of the 24-team playoff bracket for the top teams in the ten FCS conferences who participate – the two conferences of “Historically Black Colleges” hold their own title bowl game December 16, and the Ivy League schools (Yale was the champion this year) do not participate in anything beyond the ten game schedule they just concluded.

            Let’s look at the lower-division FCS teams first: of the eight teams we forecast to receive top eight seeds (and the week off that comes with it) two weeks ago, seven of them did indeed get selected – in order, #1 James Madison (Virginia, of the Colonial conference), North Dakota State (MVC champ), Jacksonville State (of Alabama, the OVC champ), Central Arkansas (the Southland conference champ), South Dakota State (MVC runner-up), Sam Houston State (Texas, the Southland runner-up), and Wofford (in South Carolina, the Southern Conference champ). The number eight seed was indeed the Big Sky conference champion, as expected, but that turned out to be Southern Utah rather than Weber State.

            This week’s eight games set up to determine their eight opponents next week. Included are our ELO-Following Football point spread predictions and who the winner would play:

            Lehigh (Patriot conference champ) at Stony Brook (CAA 2^nd place) – winner plays at James Madison. Lehigh went 5-1 in the Patriot League, and 0-5 outside it. Stony Brook by 12.

            Western Illinois (MVC at-large) at Weber State (Big Sky co-champ) – winner plays at Southern Utah. We like Weber by three.

            Central Connecticut State (NEC champ) at New Hampshire (CAA at-large) – winner plays at Central Arkansas. CCSU came from 2-9 last year to win the Northeast, unbeaten in conference. But New Hampshire plays in a much tougher league: UNH by 10.

            Monmouth (Big South runner-up) at Northern Iowa (MVC at-large) – winner plays at South Dakota State. We’re ecstatic Monmouth made it in, but we like NIU by nine here.

            San Diego (Pioneer champ) at Northern Arizona (Big Sky at-large) – winner plays at North Dakota State. We favor NAU by two.

            Furman (Southern Conference at-large) at Elon (CAA at-large) – winner plays at Wofford. Elon has had a great turnaround season, but we think Furman ends it by ten.

            Samford (Southern Conference at-large) at Kennesaw State (Big South champ) – winner plays at Jacksonville State. We think Kennesaw was disrespected in its placement, and we like them here by six.

            South Dakota (MVC at-large) at Nicholls State (Southland at-large) – winner plays at Sam Houston State. We’re really happy for Nicholls State, which went 0-12 three years ago. But South Dakota could have been seeded, so we’re predicting USD by four.

            Two weeks ago, we thought Western Carolina might represent the Southern Conference instead of Samford, but this was the right call: Samford has more good wins, and WCU lost its last game 65-10. We’re surprised Nicholls State got in over conference foe McNeese State, but we’re excited to see how them manage against a tournament veteran like South Dakota. Illinois State fell apart towards the end of the season, and Northern Iowa deserved “their spot” in the tournament. The other teams we were thinking had a good shot Saturday night included Eastern Washington of the Big Sky (on pedigree as much as record), and our precious Governors from Austin Peay, which went 7-1 in conference and 8-1 in FCS (their other three losses were to good FBS teams). But when you break a 29-game losing streak THIS season, it may be too early to expect more than a pat on the back this year.

            As for those “HBC” conferences, the SWAC has a couple of weeks left to settle its internal squabbles, while the MEAC behemoth awaits. Southern and Grambling put on their annual “Battle of the Bands” surrounded by a football game in New Orleans this weekend (we like Grambling by six), the winner to play Alcorn State for the league title next week. After that, the SWAC champion gets to play in the brand-new Mercedes-Benz stadium in Atlanta on December 16 against 11-0 North Carolina A&T, which we would favor over anyone in the SWAC right now.

            On to the last week of the FBS season!

            The biggest games are three of the traditional rivalries that will determine division championships, and probably the best game of the three will be Alabama at Auburn, to settle the fate of the SEC West. We all assumed ‘Bama would dust the field with the Tigers until Auburn demolished SEC East champ Georgia 40-13 last week; now, even though Alabama still has the best rating in the sport, Auburn is only a five-point underdog on our rating scale. The winner plays Georgia for the SEC title and presumably a spot in the playoff foursome.

            The second important rivalry game is Washington/Washington State, and if WSU can overcome what we have as a four-point margin against them, they would win the Pac-12 North and take on USC for the conference title. If they lose, Stanford will host the title game. Regardless of outcome, though, the Pac-12 champion is NOT guaranteed a spot in the playoff; other teams ahead of them will have to lose.

            One of those might be Wisconsin, which will be a two-TD favorite against Minnesota. But if the undefeated Badgers make it past the Gophers and then defeat Ohio State in the Big Ten title game, they’ll be in the final four. If not, though, it’s not clear if the two-loss Buckeyes are in; part of that determination depends on how they look against their arch-rivals this weekend, the Michigan Wolverines. We have OSU as a 9-point choice, and we would currently favor them by five against Wisconsin on the neutral field in Indianapolis they’ll play on next week.

            Clemson and Miami have warm-up games before they meet in a winner-take-playoff spot game on December 2 for the ACC title, regardless of the outcomes this weekend. Both are 12-point road favorites on our books, Clemson at South Carolina and Miami at Pittsburgh.

            The third rivalry game with conference title implications takes place in Orlando Friday, where South Florida and Central Florida match up for the AAC East title in the “War On I-4”. The winner will be the favorite against 9-1 Memphis for both the conference title and the New Year’s Six bowl game spot allotted to the best non-Power Five team in the country. (We favor the home UCF Golden Knights by nine this week.)

The only other real rival for that position at this point in the rankings outside the AAC might be Boise State in the Mountain West, which has an interesting situation Saturday night. Both Boise and Fresno State have clinched their respective divisions with one game left to play…against each other, oddly enough. So they’ll play two consecutive games: the first, with nothing on the line, and the second, for the conference title. Our puzzle – how would you coach that first game? Do you play conservatively, show nothing, and rest your stars? Or go all-out, try to run them into the ground and send a message, maybe show them seven weird formations they’ll have to prepare for all next week? We’re going to be fascinated to find out how the coaches handle this odd situation! (Under normal circumstances, we’d favor Boise by five. But this game? I wouldn’t bet this game on a death threat.)

Here’s a run-down of ELO-FF’s predictions of other rivalry games that don’t have title implications riding on them:

Ø  North Carolina State by ten at North Carolina.

Ø  Georgia over Georgia Tech in Atlanta by ten.

Ø  Florida State by four at Florida.

Ø  Virginia Tech by a touchdown on the road versus Virginia.

Ø  Iowa by six at Nebraska.

Ø  Stanford by five at home versus Notre Dame.

Ø  We see Arizona at Arizona State as an even game.

Ø  Tennessee is a nine-point favorite at home against Vanderbilt.

Ø  Mississippi State is a six-point home favorite against Ole Miss Thursday night in the “Egg Bowl”.

Ø  Western Michigan is a nine-point underdog at the Glass Bowl against Toledo.

Ø  Nevada-Reno has a three-point edge at home against UNLV.

Quick! Before the NCAA makes up its mind...

...here are the Act II predictions for the FCS playoffs, including the eight seeds and where the other sixteen teams will line up below them:

1) James Madison (11-0) will take on the winner of Furman (7-4) and Austin Leay (8-4).  We think. Remember, this is only OUR guesswork. Check later in the week for the real lineup!

8) Kennesaw State (10-1) will host the winner of Lehigh (5-6, the Patriot league champ) and Samford (8-3).

4) Jacksonville State (10-1) will play at home against the winner of McNeese State (9-2) and Northern Iowa (7-4).

5) South Dakota State (9-2) waits for the survivor of the Big Sky battle betwixt Northern Arizona (7-4) and Eastern Washington (also 7-4), which didn’t play each other this season.

2) North Dakota State (10-1) will host the winner of Southern Illinois (7-4) and Weber State (9-2).

7) Wofford (9-2) awaits the winner of Stony Brook (9-2) and NEC champ Central Connecticut State (8-3).

3) Central Arkansas (10-1) will play either Elon (8-3) or Western Illinois (8-3).

And 6) Southern Utah (9-2) will host the San Diego (9-2) / Sam Houston State (10-1) winner.

Okay? Let’s see how close we get...

Finally, an answer to our mysterious disappearance

Except for the pieces we've been writing for The Roar down in Australia (and this time of year, those have been pretty exclusively about American college football), there's been a hiatus of a couple of weeks at least where we haven't added very much to your reading, particularly on the Christian front.

There are two reasons for that.

1) Much of the time I'd normally spend on writing new material for Act II Ministries has been spent editing and selecting essays for a new project, available soon: a collection of the best Christian essays from the past year-plus of Act II to be published before Christmas. There were over three hundred different pieces to choose from, and we want to make this book something that will help win people to Christ, or strengthen the commitment of those who have already found the Lord's goodness.

2) My health has taken a turn for the worse, as it occasionally does. Many times previously I've discussed the 'thorn in my side', the tubular aggregate myopathy which God allowed me to have, which slowed me down enough to take the time to listen to Him and begin walking by His Side. But the disease hasn't gone away just because I became a Christian, and its effects have now reached to point where I'm having to start the process of disability retirement from my regular teaching job.

In the meantime, typing has become more difficult for me - not so much the physical aspect but trying to stay coordinated enough to spell something correctly (or at least well enough for the auto-correct to help!)  My poor girlfriend has gotten the brunt of my bad typing: my texts are almost unreadable at times! Having the mental stamina to put out these posts is becoming more and more rare. Even when I'm back on first priority for this blog, I suspect posts will be fewer and farther between because of it. (On the other hand, when I stop teaching altogether, I may have more time to dedicate to this production, too!)

The truth is, I've been very fortunate as far as this disease goes. It was discovered in just about one year from first appointment to diagnosis, much faster than the very few people I'm aware of with the condition (there are only about 50-75 of us TAM sufferers in the world, apparently). So before I'd followed the obvious doctoral advice of exercising more to stay in shape - the worst advice for a TAM sufferer, because that creates more tubules faster! - I learned not to. The people I'd talked to on line with the condition were already wheelchair bound and out of work before the condition was diagnosed; I got six more years before this moment! And while I'm very wobbly when I walk, I'm not in a wheelchair as of yet, either! So I'm very blessed in that sense.

My girlfriend has been a huge help, as have my tween and teen children. Moving to a small house last year undoubtedly prolonged my health. My assistant teacher is probably doing 90% of the classroom work, in hopes of extending my stay as a teacher. The school district I work for has been tremendous in its support. All in all, I really have no complaints given the condition I suffer from. God through His human appendages has been very good to me.

It's my aim to make it alive until the Rapture, which I sincerely believe is within the next year, maybe two years at most. Honestly, that's one of the things that keeps me going when the fight seems hopeless. I also know that God has a plan for my remaining time on earth, no matter how short it is, or He would have taken me along with my late wife four years ago. So I don't want to usurp His right to take or give my life - it's not my role, no matter how much preferable Heaven will be to my current malaise of pain and exhaustion. That's His Call.

So, I'm still here. I'm still fighting. I may not be getting very much done, but anything I can accomplish for Him is more than nothing. God bless you all, and I love you all.

FBS on the home stretch!

[Originally published in The Roar Nov 14, 2017]

            Last week, we took a gander at the lower half of Division 1 American college football as it hit the two-weeks-to-go mark before the playoff selection. This week, it’s the upper half, the ten FBS conferences, who have two weeks to go before the conference championship games take place and the final bowl and playoff selections occur. (Generally, teams must win six games to become bowl eligible.) Let’s look at those conferences and where their teams line up for those possibilities.

            Atlantic Coast (ACC): In the Coastal division, Miami-FL cinched the division title even before demolishing Notre Dame Saturday night, and will face Clemson, who finished its conference play at 7-1 with a win over poor Florida State and clinched the Atlantic division. The winner of that game has the inside track on one of the four playoff positions IF they win out.

Bowl participants: definitely Miami (currently 9-0), Clemson (9-1), North Carolina State (7-3), Virginia (6-4), Louisville (6-4), Wake Forest (6-4) and Virginia Tech (7-3); probably Boston College (projected to finish 7-5), Georgia Tech (6-5); possibly Pitt (projected 4-8), Duke (4-8), and Syracuse (4-8).

            American (AAC): The winner of the South Florida at Central Florida game in two weeks will be the East division champ, and Memphis has the inside track to win the West with wins over SMU and East Carolina in the next two weeks. The East champ is most likely going to be the New Year’s Six representative.

Bowl participants: definitely UCF (9-0), USF (8-1), Memphis (8-1), Houston (6-3), SMU (6-4), and Navy (6-3); possibly Temple (projected at 5-7), and Tulane (4-8).

            Big Ten: Wisconsin has the chance to win out and make the College Football Playoff, with victories over Michigan, Minnesota, and the East champion (most likely Ohio State). They’ve got the West sewn up already; the Buckeyes have a leg up on the East division at 6-1, and with a pair of wins against Illinois and at Michigan will cinch the East.

Bowl participants: definitely Ohio State (8-2), Michigan (8-2), Michigan State (8-2), Penn State (7-3), Wisconsin (10-0), Northwestern (7-3), and Iowa (6-4); possibly Nebraska (projected 4-8), Minnesota (5-7), Purdue (5-7), Maryland (4-8), and Rutgers (4-8).

            Big Twelve: Oklahoma has one spot in the pointless title game wrapped up with a win over TCU Saturday. TCU is still the leading candidate for the other slot, tied with Oklahoma State and West Virginia at 5-2. (Despite everyone playing everyone else, the “XII” has the top two play again, with the assumption that one more win looks too good for the playoff committee to pass up…forgetting that the one more loss may exclude their best candidate. We’re going to find out in three weeks!)

Bowl participants: definitely Oklahoma (9-1) Oklahoma State (8-2), TCU (8-2), West Virginia (7-3), Iowa State (6-4); probably Texas (projected 6-6); possibly Kansas State (projected 5-7), Texas Tech (projected 5-7).

            Conference USA:  Florida International goes to Florida Atlantic next week, with FAU hoping to clinch the East division crown. North Texas is 6-1 in the West, and has only a bowl of Rice in front of it for a West division title.

Bowl participants: definitely North Texas (7-3), Alabama-Birmingham (7-3... unless the state school board interferes again!), FAU (7-3), FIU (6-3), Southern Miss (6-4), and Marshall (7-3); probably Middle Tennessee (projected 6-6), Western Kentucky (7-5) and UTSA (7-5); possibly Louisiana Tech (projected 5-7).

            Mid-American (MAC): Ohio just beat Toledo 38-10 this past Wednesday; that’s very likely to be the match-up again in a few weeks for the MAC title, barring a slip-up from either team (although Ohio has Akron next Tuesday, and Toledo has Western Michigan in two weeks).

Bowl participants: definitely Ohio (8-2), Toledo (8-2), Northern Illinois (7-3), Western (6-4) and Central Michigan (6-4); probably Akron (projected 6-6); possibly Miami-Ohio (projected 5-7) and Buffalo (5-7).

            Mountain West (MWC): With a win over San Diego State to its credit, Fresno State would have to lose to more than just to Boise on November 25 to lose the West division crown; meanwhile, Boise State would have to lose to more than just Fresno to lose the Mountain division crown. What we’re saying is that those two teams will be playing two consecutive games in weeks 13 and 14: the first one will be completely meaningless, while the latter one will be for the title. That will make the first game an interesting chess match…

Bowl participants: definitely Fresno State (7-3), San Diego State (8-2), Boise State (8-2), Colorado State (6-5), and Wyoming (7-3); probably Utah State (projected 6-6); possibly UNLV (projected 4-8) and Air Force (5-7).

            Pacific 12 (Pac-12): Stanford's whipping of Washington means that Washington State is one Apple Cup win away from winning a three-way battle for the North division title; lose to UW, and Stanford hosts the title game against the already-sealed and delivered Southern Cal Trojans. Washington could still win if they beat WSU ("Wazzu") and Stanford loses to Cal-Berkeley in "the Big Game" this weekend.  With the cannibalization the league has committed, and no team having less than two losses, it's almost inconceivable that any Pac-12 team will make the final four.

Bowl participants: definitely Washington (8-2), WSU (9-2), Stanford (7-3), Arizona (7-3), USC (9-2); probably Arizona State (projected 6-6), Oregon (6-6), Utah (6-6), UCLA (6-6); possibly Cal (projected 5-7), Colorado (5-7).

            Southeastern (SEC): With Georgia’s loss to Auburn, the stage is set for next week's Iron Bowl between 10-0 Alabama and 8-2 Auburn, the winner becoming the West division titlist and getting (a possible rematch with) Georgia for the SEC title. It sure looks like the Iron Bowl winner would have to be one of the four CFP favorites at the moment, and if the winner beats Georgia (again), that's a certainty.

Bowl participants: definitely Alabama, Georgia (9-1), Auburn, Kentucky (7-3), South Carolina (7-3), LSU (7-3), Mississippi State (7-3), and Texas A&M (6-4); probably Missouri (projected 7-5 after a terrible start); possibly Tennessee (projected 5-7), Vanderbilt (4-8), Arkansas (4-8); Ole Miss is ineligible despite their current 5-5 record.

            Sun Belt: Four teams now have one conference loss, and with no title game it seems very likely that co-champions might happen. But looking at the upcoming schedules (Troy hosts Arkansas State and App St plays Georgia State), it looks like the most likely outcome involves a tie between Appalachian State and Troy; since they don't play each other this year, they seem likely to finish co-champs. (No title game, no complete round-robin. It's the opposite stupidity of the Big Twelve's stupidity.) 

Bowl participants: definitely Troy (8-2), Appalachian State (6-4), and Georgia State (6-3); probably Arkansas State (projected 8-3) and New Mexico State (7-5); possibly UL-Lafayette (projected 5-7), UL-Monroe (4-7), Idaho (4-8) and South Alabama (4-8).

            Independent teams: Notre Dame is 8-2 and  was virtually guaranteed a final four playoff spot until their rout at undefeated Miami Saturday. But they lost to 9-1 Georgia by just one point and have wins against Temple, Boston College, Michigan State, USC, North Carolina State, and Wake Forest; add the Midshipmen and Cardinal to that list and they might still get into the finals, particularly if Miami goes in undefeated. Army is 8-2 and guaranteed a bowl bid, while UMass and BYU together don’t have enough wins to qualify.

            So, our current projections with two weeks to go before conference title games? Our four CFP finalists would be Alabama (SEC), Oklahoma (Big Twelve), Wisconsin (Big Ten), and the Clemson - Miami winner (ACC), assuming wins go their way in November.

            And the clamoring for an eight-team playoff increases exponentially if either Notre Dame makes it or a second ACC or SEC team makes the playoffs. Personally, we HATE the idea of expansion, but money says that the five Power Five conferences will NOT continue with a contract that automatically prevents at least one and in this case up to THREE of them from getting a cut of the biggest pie. Expect to see an eight-team finals with the five Power Five champs guaranteed a spot and three wild cards when the next contract comes up; and if there’s any justice in the world, one of those spots would be guaranteed to a Group of Five team. (But if they actually DO that, we’ll faint.)

            As for the conference champions? In order, we expect them to be Clemson (ACC), Central Florida (AAC), Ohio State (Big Ten), Oklahoma (Big Twelve), FIU (Conference USA), Ohio (MAC), Boise State (MWC), USC (Pac 12), Alabama (SEC), and Appalachian State / Troy (Sun Belt).

            Finally, there are 39 FBS bowl games this year (not counting the title game), so there need to be 78 teams that qualify for bowl games to fill those slots. “Qualify” traditionally means six wins against FBS competition. We just listed 98 teams who could possibly make that goal, but only 72 who probably will make that target. In that situation, the six teams at 5-7 (or 5-6) which have the best academic scores will be invited to fill out those remaining openings in bowl games. (Last year, all five such teams won their bowls, I think. Maybe they went 4-1, but it was impressive nonetheless.)

            Next week’s top games look like this:

Ø  Michigan at Wisconsin, the toughest test for the Badgers before the B1G title game. (We favor the home Badgers on our ELO-Following Football rating system by 11 points.)

Ø  Two traditional Pac-12 matchups in California: UCLA @ USC and Cal @ Stanford. (USC by 16 and Stanford by 14.)

Ø  Missouri @ Vanderbilt and Texas A&M @ Ole Miss, two SEC games for bowl eligibility. (Mizzou by 7 and A&M by 2.)

Ø  FIU at Florida Atlantic for the C-USA East laurels. (FAU is favored by 17, remarkably.)

Ø  James Madison at Elon for the Colonial AA title. (Elon, like all the rest of JMU's opponents this season, is a 2-3 touchdown underdog.)

Ø  Austin Peay at Eastern Illinois in the Ohio Valley, very possibly for an FCS playoff spot. (APU is a 2-point underdog, but has won all four games we've had them as single-digit underdogs this season...We'd bet on the Governors to go 8-4, 8-1 against FCS foes.)

Ø  Lafayette @ Lehigh to decide the Patriot League title. (If Lehigh fails to hold its 13-point spread, then Colgate wins the title.)

Ø  NC Central at NC A&T to decide the MEAC crown; if Central upsets A&T (a 16-point favorite), then Howard University can tie them with a win over rival Hampton.

Ø  Four teams in the Southern Conference go up a level or three to prepare for possible playoff bids: Wofford @ South Carolina, Western Carolina @ UNC, the Citadel @ Clemson, and Mercer @ Alabama. (If any of them win, that’ll be a huge upset. But they’re all good FCS teams…)

Ø  And “The Game” (that’s its name): Harvard at Yale. If Yale wins (a 7-point favorite), they take the Ivy League title all alone; if not, Dartmouth (by 1) and Columbia (by 17) are favored to tie them for the title.

Colossians 3, verses 1-16

1If then you have been raised with Christ, seek the things that are above, where Christ is, seated at the right hand of God. 2Set your minds on things that are above, not on things that are on earth. 3For you have died, and your life is hidden with Christ in God. 4When Christ who is your life appears, then you also will appear with him in glory.

5Put to death therefore what is earthly in you: sexual immorality, impurity, passion, evil desire, and covetousness, which is idolatry. 6On account of these the wrath of God is coming. 7In these you too once walked, when you were living in them. 8But now you must put them all away: anger, wrath, malice, slander, and obscene talk from your mouth. 9Do not lie to one another, seeing that you have put off the old self with its practices 10and have put on the new self, which is being renewed in knowledge after the image of its creator. 11Here there is not Greek and Jew, circumcised and uncircumcised, barbarian, Scythian, slave, free; but Christ is all, and in all.

12Put on then, as God’s chosen ones, holy and beloved, compassionate hearts, kindness, humility, meekness, and patience, 13bearing with one another and, if one has a complaint against another, forgiving each other; as the Lord has forgiven you, so you also must forgive. 14And above all these put on love, which binds everything together in perfect harmony. 15And let the peace of Christ rule in your hearts, to which indeed you were called in one body. And be thankful. 16Let the word of Christ dwell in you richly, teaching and admonishing one another in all wisdom, singing psalms and hymns and spiritual songs, with thankfulness in your hearts to God. 17And whatever you do, in word or deed, do everything in the name of the Lord Jesus, giving thanks to God the Father through him.