New Year's Eve, 2017

This is post number 253 of this calendar year, and the 362nd of the (most recent) lifespan of the Act II Ministries blog. Over the course of December, there haven't been many new posts, as we were busy not just with Christmas but with the process of producing and starting to market the collection, "Selected Essays: Act II Ministries 2016-17", now in spiral bound book form and available from this website for a donation of $12 or more. Contact us through the comments for more information, or send your donation to the address on the blogsite with your own contact information so we can ship a copy to you ASAP. [Officially, it's my eleventh book published, with its companion "Selected Stories: Act II Ministries 2016-17", a collection of more personal tales printed in this blog, being the twelfth. I'm thinking of printing up a calendar with all twelve covers commemorated for my own use, as a manifestation of my still-extant sinful pride.] By the way, $12 covers the cost of production and mailing fairly precisely. We've no intention on profiting on this unless God says otherwise.

The other item that's kept me busy during the past week in particular is having proposed to the lovely and talented Dana, about whom I have spoken often and lovingly. It is to her infinite credit that I've learned to love to this extent again, after the death of my "soul mate" and partner in this ministry venture, Melissa Smith, three years ago this month. Dana, you are my last love, and the woman I want to be with when we are taken up by Christ when He splits the eastern sky.

Which brings me to the topic of this final post of 2017.

What would you do during 2018 if you knew it was going to be your last year on earth?

I'm very serious about this question, for many reasons. Those reasons don't matter right now. What would you DO? If I could guarantee that you had no more than twelve months - that you wouldn't be here to celebrate New Year's Rockin' Eve 2019 with Ryan Seacrest and the corpse of Dick Clark - would you live your remaining life differently?

The pat answer, of course, is that we are to live every day as if we could die tomorrow, but that's impractical beyond belief. The closest actual advice I've ever heard on this topic that was functionally useful was to plan like you'll live forever, and live like there's no tomorrow.

But generally, we don't do even that. 

This is not your standard "Carpe Diem!" post. This is a serious admonition that the End is Almost Here. If you've followed my writing over the last fifteen months, or really just the last few months (and God bless you if you have, as erratic a poster as I've been given my failing health!), then you know where I'm coming from.  

All the signs are in place for the "Rapture of Christ's Church" in the imminent future. There are no longer any more "signs" necessary, nothing else needed before the Son of Man appears without warning and snatches up the smaller-than-commonly-expected number of Believers from the surface of this world and takes us Home. 

We use the word "snatches" because Jesus Himself told us it would be sudden. Here is part of the Olivet Discourse, Matthew 24 (verses 15-19) →

15“So when you see the abomination of desolation spoken of by the prophet Daniel, standing in the holy place (let the reader understand), 16then let those who are in Judea flee to the mountains. 17Let the one who is on the housetop not go down to take what is in his house, 18and let the one who is in the field not turn back to take his cloak. 19And alas for women who are pregnant and for those who are nursing infants in those days!

Several things to note here. 

"The abomination that causes desolation" is the final step in the countdown to the rapture, the only one left. What that may be is unclear. Many have speculated it to be something about the not-yet reconstructed Third Temple, but at this point that seems a wistful dream at best. More likely, it's some desecration of an already-extant holy site; in my mind, the Western Wall is the obvious candidate. Regardless, when it happens, it's too late to be saved and catch the first train out of town! Verses 16-19 make it clear there won't be a delay after that for us to "catch our breath" or "pack our bags". (What would you possibly want to pack to go to Heaven?)

"Let the reader understand" - is not added later, but is part of the original quotation. Jesus is expecting His Words to be written down and passed on to future generations. That seems an amazingly profound thought for Jesus to have at the moment.

"Alas for women who are pregnant and for those who are nursing infants" - Here's a thought some of you may not have come across. Jesus says on many occasions that to enter into Heaven, we must be like them: staying in Matthew, here's 19:14 →

14but Jesus said, “Let the little children come to me and do not hinder them, for to such belongs the kingdom of heaven.” 


For to such belongs the Kingdom of Heaven! So not only will the children GO to Heaven, they'll OWN it! So, undoubtedly, the children below a certain age (presumably the age where that child can make a consenting choice) will be taken up unconditionally. Alas for pregnant women and those nursing infants indeed! If they're not saved, their child will be snatched up without them! (I'm assuming that you realize: no matter what our governments may say, to God those babies within their mothers' wombs are already living human beings worthy of salvation. Psalm 139:13 → 

 For you formed my inward parts;
you knitted me together in my mother’s womb.

As the memesters would say, "Your argument is invalid"!) 

I've written about the impending Rapture before. God has pressed me to talk about it non-stop for the next however-many months we have left. So, that's the primary reason I have for stressing this immediacy issue.

But personally, I have a second one: my health is steadily deteriorating to a frightening level.

Since six months ago, I've lost a great deal of stamina and develop pain much faster. It takes more medication to beat that pain back, and I've had to add three medicines to my daily regimen. While I've been able to stay on the job officially, long-time readers know it's only through the tireless efforts of my teaching assistant Wendy that I'm able to survive day to day (and even so, I can't generally make it through more than three days in a week). Unfortunately, I've recebtly learned that in order to retire on disability from our state's school system and earn disability retirement payments, I have to be off the payroll for five months before even the first test of my ability or inability will be made.

Screw that. God's coming sooner than that! I'm currently planning to just keep teaching until He Returns or until I drop! This is another "Holy Spirit" thing, understand: it's going to be a race to see if I live long enough to see the Rapture, or if the pain gets to me first.

So, for me, it becomes very simple. 2018 will be my last year on the planet, and frankly I can't wait to get to Heaven! 

BUT.... what am I supposed to do with the time left to me here?!?

God didn't leave me here "accidentally", any more than He left YOU here "accidentally". What are we supposed to do to help encourage the lost to come to Christ in these last few months? For me, this blog is an important venue, and I'm pledging to try and post something every day until the End. (I don't make "New Year's Resolutions" generally, because having spent my entire life in the school system, I don't think of January as the "new year"! I've always made those resolutions in August. This year, however, warrants an adjustment.)

I also need to focus this blog in more on the essentials: the salvation of the lost (both the ones reading the blog and the ones you may have in your lives and want to help save) and the urgency of the issue.  The rest of my duties, like always, start from listening to God in prayer and interpreting what He wants me to do. That's not always easy for me to do. Like most pray-ers, I tend to bring my own desires into the prayer circle, when I need to listen more carefully. 

What about you? What do you find God is leading you towards in 2018? Don't waste a DAY of the time you have left, because there aren't very many!    

The Birth of Jesus Christ

From the Gospel of Luke, chapter 2

 

1In those days a decree went out from Caesar Augustus that all the world should be registered. 

2This was the first registration when Quirinius was governor of Syria. 

3And all went to be registered, each to his own town.  

4And Joseph also went up from Galilee, from the town of Nazareth, to Judea, to the city of David, which is called Bethlehem, because he was of the house and lineage of David, 5to be registered with Mary, his betrothed, who was with child.  

6And while they were there, the time came for her to give birth. 

7And she gave birth to her firstborn son and wrapped him in swaddling cloths and laid him in a manger, because there was no place for them in the inn.

8And in the same region there were shepherds out in the field, keeping watch over their flock by night.  

9And an angel of the Lord appeared to them, and the glory of the Lord shone around them, and they were filled with great fear.  

10And the angel said to them, “Fear not, for behold, I bring you good news of great joy that will be for all the people. 11For unto you is born this day in the city of David a Savior, who is Christ the Lord. 12And this will be a sign for you: you will find a baby wrapped in swaddling cloths and lying in a manger.”  

13And suddenly there was with the angel a multitude of the heavenly host praising God and saying,

14“Glory to God in the highest, and on earth peace among those with whom he is pleased!”

15When the angels went away from them into heaven, the shepherds said to one another, “Let us go over to Bethlehem and see this thing that has happened, which the Lord has made known to us.” 

16And they went with haste and found Mary and Joseph, and the baby lying in a manger. 

17And when they saw it, they made known the saying that had been told them concerning this child. 

18And all who heard it wondered at what the shepherds told them.  

19But Mary treasured up all these things, pondering them in her heart.  

20And the shepherds returned, glorifying and praising God for all they had heard and seen, as it had been told them.

21And at the end of eight days, when he was circumcised, he was called Jesus, the name given by the angel before he was conceived in the womb.

22And when the time came for their purification according to the Law of Moses, they brought him up to Jerusalem to present him to the Lord 23(as it is written in the Law of the Lord, “Every male who first opens the womb shall be called holy to the Lord”) 24and to offer a sacrifice according to what is said in the Law of the Lord, “a pair of turtledoves, or two young pigeons.” 

25Now there was a man in Jerusalem, whose name was Simeon, and this man was righteous and devout, waiting for the consolation of Israel, and the Holy Spirit was upon him.  

26And it had been revealed to him by the Holy Spirit that he would not see death before he had seen the Lord’s Christ.  

27And he came in the Spirit into the temple, and when the parents brought in the child Jesus, to do for him according to the custom of the Law,  

28he took him up in his arms and blessed God and said,

29“Lord, now you are letting your servant depart in peace, according to your word; 30for my eyes have seen your salvation 31that you have prepared in the presence of all peoples, 32a light for revelation to the Gentiles, and for glory to your people Israel.”

33And his father and his mother marveled at what was said about him. 

34And Simeon blessed them and said to Mary his mother, “Behold, this child is appointed for the fall and rising of many in Israel, and for a sign that is opposed 35(and a sword will pierce through your own soul also), so that thoughts from many hearts may be revealed.”

"And a sword will pierce through your own soul also."

Even within the birth story of Jesus the Babe, there is already the reminder that He came to earth to die for us, to be the only acceptable Sacrifice for our sins.

Celebrate the birth of Christ today, but more importantly, celebrate the reason for His birth. Jesus was born to lead a sinless life on a sin-filled planet, so that He could serve as the bearer of OUR sins when the punishment came, as it did when God had the Pharisees present Him to the Romans for scourging and crucifixion.  Nothing else was as important as that detail; never forget it. Without that impossibly amazing sacrifice on your behalf - yours AND mine! - we are doomed to an eternity in a timeless Hell. With our acceptance of His sacrifice on our behalf, we are allowed into Heaven. 

I don't care if you think it unfair, or a fairy story, or whatever else. There will come a time very soon - within the decade for every one of us, believe it or don't - that you WILL come to understand that Jesus Christ Is Lord. I'm praying it's soon. 

Have a wonderful Christmas!  

AFL roster analysis

[Originally published in The Roar]

      Now that the trading period and draft is over, we can start to get a feel for what the 2018 rosters will look like for each of the 18 AFL teams looking to play through to the end of September this coming year. 

     If you've read my work here before, you'll remember that I'm a maths geek and like to spend my free time crunching numbers looking for trends and predicting future performance. My track record, using my "ELO-Following Football" rating system for teams and players (and now for male and female!) has proven to be more accurate than the odds-makers and the vast majority of pundits out there. (Not by much, mind you! But more than a trivial amount!) I'm not comfortable saying "use these forecasts for gambling purposes", but you do you, y'know?

     So, trying to project what each club will have to work with next year will give us a head start on projecting what they'll accomplish in league in the fall and winter. There are two numbers to share with you in pursuit of this goal.

     One is the "Following Football" rating from last September, the year-end resultant of the on-field production using the ELO method (a zero-sum calculation where you compare expectation to result and add to the rating of the team which outperformed expectation the same amount you subtract from the rating of their opponent). As we do every season, we normalized those numbers towards the mean to address the normal tendencies during the season to spread apart; in the AFL, we find that a 20% reduction figure is about right.

     The other is new to readers of The Roar: we've taken the top 29 players on each team's projected roster (nine forwards, nine midfielders, nine backs, and two ruckman) and assigned them a point value based on their projected points for the coming season, using the previous three seasons where applicable. We've been very conservative with changes - if they were, say, the one-hundredth rated player overall last season, then (barring injury, trade, moving positions or other mitigating factors) they're probably valued as about that right now. Young players will probably improve a bit; old players will probably fade a bit. You get the idea. (Incidentally, this would be easy for you to do with fantasy values - although those values aren't quite as functional for this purpose as the ELO numbers are, because they're designed for a slightly different purpose. But I won't swear they're not as good; I've just found that this seems to work better.)

     Why 29 players, when they only field 22? By the time they reach the bye, most teams have used about that many bodies on the field. If they're fortunate, they won't have to dig any deeper - if they're GWS last year, they'll be hip deep in unused guernseys. Besides that, beyond those top 29 it becomes tougher to forecast who will come out of the feeder league bushes and show improvement enough to be given a shot. 

     So, without ado, here are those numbers (written as [total roster projected points, current team rating]):

Adelaide (3409, 74.0)

Geelong (3250, 63.3)

GWS (3143, 60.3)

Melbourne (3126, 50.1)

Port Adelaide (3124, 62.2)

Sydney (3046, 75.0)

Richmond (2959, 77.6)

Essendon (2885, 46.8)

Hawthorn (2680, 50.5)

Fremantle (2621, 24.5)

West Coast (2615, 50.3)

Collingwood (2598, 51.4)

Brisbane (2546, 27.4)

St. Kilda (2408, 50.1)

Western BD (2108, 45.7)

No. Melbourne (2062, 38.9)

Carlton (2002, 35.2)

Gold Coast (2002, 16.2)

     Some things stand out, and while it may belabor the obvious in some cases, we'll point them out anyway.

     Teams that seem to have stronger rosters than their record or rating would tell us from last year? The most prominent teams are Melbourne, up in fourth on the roster point list when they didn't make finals last year, and Fremantle, which was free-falling to the bottom at the end of the year. Their roster number indicates a .500 season or so, resting 11th overall and just ahead of the co-tenants, West Coast. Brisbane's off the bottom of the table as well, but that shouldn't be a surprise to anyone watching this young team last season!

     Which teams are surprisingly thin on talent? The names in 15th and 16th are notable: St. Kilda is at the bottom end of the middle pack, at 2408 (the average here turns out to be right around 2700, for comparison). But the Doggies look to be in trouble this year, having only the same amount of talent as the three teams deemed to have the "least talented roster" by these numbers. the Roos and the Blues, with Dew's Crews right there too. (Too's.)

     Is Western really that strapped for meritorious players? Well, with the Bont not having pulled into that highest echelon (yet) as many expected, the culling of a few veteran players, and some weaknesses disguised by a joy-filled run to the flag in 2016 that the 2017 exposed, the answer is yes. Here's the list of the five highest valued players on their list (according to our numbers) in alphabetical order: Bontempelli, Dalhaus, Hunter, Johannisen, and Macrae. All good players - but how does that stack up against almost any random AFL team? You do the comparison.  

     To fill to the 29th player, we have to include back-and-forth players like Josh Dunkley, Josh Schache, Lukas Webb, and rookie draft pick Aaron Naughton, who may be wonderful but isn't likely to be their number one option this early. While most teams have this kind of issue at the bottom (else why are those players not starting?), it speaks to the fact that the Bulldogs' roster doesn't have the kind of strength at either end that strikes fear in the hearts of other teams. 

     It was also surprising to see our two highest rated teams, Sydney and Richmond, in sixth and seventh in terms of overall roster strength. Neither team should be overly concerned about that unless there's a tidal wave of injuries that overwhelms either of them this season: doing a quick simulation that combines the current team ratings (for round one) and the roster projected team point numbers (affecting each team's rating gradually up to the bye), Sydney is still one of three teams projected to reach round 15 at 12-1 (the others are Adelaide and Geelong), and Richmond should be somewhere near 10-3 at that point as well. (Those projections assume form holds in every game, which 1/3 of the time it doesn't in the AFL! We used to include that in our forecasts, but discovered it's fruitless to be guessing when fate will blow on the dice!)

     Those projections, by the way, don't reveal anything interesting that the two numbers above don't already show. Adelaide has a great roster number and a great rating, so guess what? They're likely to win most of their games! Gold Coast has just the opposite? Guess what? It's hard to find wins for them on this schedule - although I have faith that Stewart Dew can pull them up at least a little bit.

     Which brings us to our most important intangible: coaching. What effect will Dew have on the Suns? Will an invigorated Nathan Buckley show more flair with the Magpies? In general, what effect does a year make on anything related to a team? I'm convinced that the biggest difference with Richmond in 2017, especially late in the season, was not Prestia or any other new person involved, but rather just the year of growth and experience and "settling in together" of the major players for the Tigers - a year of maturation for Dustin Martin into the prohibitive favorite and winner of the Brownlow, the coordination of the front line and the back line both with time and experience together, and so forth. I'll lay odds they didn't realize what they had until they started to win some games they didn't expect to win!

      So all of this number crunching is much ado about nothing? 

      Not really. It gives us an idea what we're supposed to be looking for this season - who might have sudden surges from their farm system mid-season. It might tell us who's working with duct tape and bailing wire to hold the team together until they can bring some youth into the fight down the road. In Brisbane's case, and perhaps Adelaide's as well, it confirms what we've been thinking about their growth as up-and-coming teams. And, frankly, it's just fun to play with. Why else would we invest so much time in "fantasy football" and tipping contests when there's no serious merit to either? Because we like it! It gives us some tangible way to "be involved" in footy, even when it's a full level removed from the "real thing".

      In a sense, this is our "cos-play". If we have Paddy Dangerfield on our fantasy team, we can watch the game from his perspective, living and figuratively dying with his every possession. If we've clicked the box next to Collingwood's name, we become invested in their performance that week in a way that we wouldn't have been before - even without money riding on the outcome, our pride alone will keep us attached. 

     So take it seriously, but no more seriously than you take the game itself. And in the end, footy IS just a game.

     [NOTE: the author was later taken out, placed in a potato sack and beaten with cricket bats for his blasphemy.]

A lesson from Paul

Today, I had to pray for the spirit of fear to be taken away.

I suffered from a sudden attack of introversion, paranoia, and confusion. It was a remarkably scary day - I couldn’t even look my beautiful Dana in the eye.

What else can one do then, but pray?

Pray for God to take away that spirit of fear, and replace it. “For this reason,” Paul told Timothy, “I remind you to fan into flame the gift of God...for God gave us a spirit not of fear but of power and love and self-control.” (2nd Timothy 1:6-7)

That doesn’t mean He made it easy on me. It was a struggle the entire day, and I lapsed back into paranoia at about 7 pm. But He strengthened me enough that I was able to survive a school day with my alternative students, as well as a meeting with the administration over next semester’s plans.

The moral? Well, there are a few, I suppose.

Trust God. That’s the first and most obvious and necessary one.

And more than that, ASK Him for what you need. Don’t assume that just because He knows what you need, He’s simply going to give it to you without your asking for it. Remember the scene in the Disney movie Aladdin, when Ali is thrown into the ocean and the genie tells him he’s got to SAY the wish before the genie can grant it? Yeah, God’s a little like that.

But even more than that, it’s like how He wants us to pray for our DAILY bread - not a month’s supply all at once, but to keep coming back for what we need daily. Well, God will provide what we need to make it... but perhaps ONLY what we need to make it. He knew how much help I did and didn’t need to make it through the day.

Christ never said life was going to be easy. But He did say it was going to be worth it.

Dana was admiring how I make it through each day given all the health challenges God has entrusted me with, and how she didn’t think she could stay as upbeat as I do fighting as much pain as I fight. But the truth is, we are all given our crosses, and He makes sure they’re never more than we can bear... but also that they’re not so light as to be meaningless, either.

Remember, His purpose for us remaining on this planet (in part) is to develop us into the most Christ-like beings we can become. And that happens through challenges, challenges that develop our character. So, as much as we all would like to shout, “That’s as much character building as I can take, Lord!”, the trust is that He knows EXACTLY how much we can and should take.

That’s why despite the fact that there have been several nights when my pain has been so bad I thought about short-cutting my way Home... I’m still here.

He hasn’t figured wrong yet, and He probably won’t. If I do short-cut some day, then I’ll probably be the one who was wrong, and I could have made it through.

After all, I’ve made it through every test so far.

Caterpillars - a short story

   “I’m telling you, Marty, it’s just plain stupid!”

   “What is, Thom?”

   Thom squinched his forty legs over towards his best friend, the better to be heard without raising his voice.

   “This whole pupa thing of Mother Jayce’s. It makes no sense!”

   Now Marty was fully engaged. Questioning anything Mama Jayce said was tantamount to heresy among the caterpillars. Even when it sounded as bizarre as what she had told the youngsters this morning before they went off to a full day of leaf-eating.

   “You mean how important it was to eat our fill, even past our comfort level, because…”

   “Because in two weeks we would be surrendering our lives as caterpillars and becoming pupae. Pupas? Puppies? Whatever. I’m not doing it!”

   “Yeah, whatever, Thom.”

   “I’m serious, Marty! I’m not doing it. Two weeks? What kind of life is that?”

   “It’s the life of a caterpillar, that’s what.”

   “I’ve heard,” began Thom, looking around as if a bird had flown by, “that we can live longer than two weeks if we choose to…”

    Marty looked at his friend like he was crazy as a dung beetle.

   “Outta your mind, Thom…”

   “I’m serious, Marty!”

   “Thom, if Mama Jayce says we’re becoming pupae, that’s good enough for me. I mean, how would I know, cat? I’m only three days old! Mama’s been around for…”

   “For WEEKS, Marty! Weeks! I’ll bet she’s at LEAST three, maybe four weeks old! If she can do it...so can I!”

   At the next morning’s pre-day meeting, Mama Jayce reiterated yesterday’s motivation.

   “Remember, youngsters, a caterpillar must eat his full and then some while he can! You only have two weeks to grow and shed and grow and shed and grow until it’s time for the pupa stage!”

   A commotion began towards the back when one of the caterpillars called out, “How old are YOU?”

   Mother Jayce was caught off guard. “I - I’m sorry, I didn’t catch that, youngster. What did you ask?”

   A circle cleared around Thom, Marty and others disassociating themselves from the upstart.

   “With all due respect, Mother Jayce, how old are you? Are you two weeks old yet? Or are you older than that already?”

   She smiled at the impudent fuzzball. There was always one like this.

   “First of all, child, you need to understand that you NEVER ask a woman her age, all right? It’s very improper!” There were nervous chuckles across the terrain.

   “But I’ll tell you anyway, son. I’m twenty-two days old today. And to anticipate your next question, the fact that I didn’t go into the pupa stage with my eggmates is because there are always supposed to be a few of us who stay behind to…”

   “To convince the next generation to DIE on schedule?!?”

   Despite the shock of the caterpillar class, Mother Jayce remained unperturbed.

   “To teach your generation how to be the best caterpillars you can be. To prepare you for what’s to come.”

   “To prepare us to become PUPAE!”

   Smiling beatifically, she calmly responded. “Yes. To prepare you to become pupae.”

   Squinching towards her defiant pupil, she continued full voice so that all her students could hear her next sentence:

   “Thom, all of you, listen carefully, because this may be hard for you to understand. In order to gain your fullest life, you must be willing to give it up. If you can’t let go of this life, you will lose the chance at true life.”

   He thought about it for a minute.

   “That’s stupid.”

   Still smiling, she replied, “Sometimes the wisdom of the ages seems like foolishness to the newcomer. But you’ll see, dear Thom. You’ll learn.”

   Munching on yet another leaf, number seven for the day, Marty and Thom are almost unrecognizable from that confrontational day over a week ago. They have each shed two exoskeletons, a third will burst away for each before the sun rises again, and the time is approaching when Thom’s resolve will be tested.

   “So, where DID you go yesterday afternoon, Thom? You haven’t said a word.”

   “No, no, I guess I haven’t.”

   Silence, except for the sound of munching.

   “You gonna tell me, cat?”

   Silence. Munch, munch. Silence.

   “All right. Have it your…”

   “Have you ever seen the pupae, Marty?”

   Startled, Marty responded, “Ah, well, ah, no, no, I haven’t. Why?”

   Quietly, so as not to be overheard: “I have, Marty. That’s where I was. They aren’t alive,    Marty! Mama Jayce is full of bug juice. They’re just sacks where the dead caterpillars go! Marty, they’re just fattening us up!”

   “Why?”

   It was Thom’s turn to be startled.

   “Why?”

   “Why, Thom? You’re so sure about this conspiracy theory with the pupae - why would they be having us eat so much just to kill us in the pupae? There’s no logic to that.”

   “There’s no logic to just DYING, either, Marty!” Looking both ways (not like a bird search - that would be up, not side to side), he added surreptitiously, “When the morning comes, Marty? I’m going into hiding. If Mama Jayce can survive an extra seventeen days, I can too. I’m not giving up my life just on her word that something ‘better’ is on the other side!”

   Marty looked at his fuzzy friend with eyes that reflected both awe and pity. His audacity was exceeded only by his lack of faith.

   “Do what you gotta do, Thom. But let me ask you one thing.”

   “Shoot.”

   “Caterpillars have been here, in this spot, for a long time, haven’t we?”

   “Yeah, that’s what they’ve taught us. The egg patch is the same as it’s been for generations.”

   “Right. And so generations of caterpillars have accepted the pupae as the next step, haven’t they?”

   Grudgingly, Thom admitted as much.

   “Right. So… where ARE they?”

   “What?”

   “All those old pupae. Where ARE they? If the pupa is the end of our lifespan...shouldn’t there be lots of pupaed caterpillars hanging around? Where are they?”

   And for once Thom didn’t have an answer.

   The Day came.

   As Mother Jayce and some other mentors were helping Marty and the myriad of other two week old caterpillars create their sacks, Thom was nowhere to be found.

   Marty looked around wistfully, and Mother Jayce made note of it.

   “You’re looking for your friend Thom?”

   Nod.

   “Dear, he’ll come to the light sooner or later. We all do.”

   That caught Marty’s attention. “We?”

Smiling and nodding, Jayce squinched close. “We. I was a doubter, too. That’s the reason I stayed behind all those days ago. Half a lifetime for me. I didn’t know what was on the other side of these sacks.”

   “Mama?” Marty’s bristles brushed against hers. “What IS on the other side?”

   She looked at him with moisture in her eyes.

   “Something wonderful, dear. You’ll see soon enough.”

   Thom watched the tearful scene from a distance, too far away to ascertain what was being said. It didn’t matter. Marty was going to be dead by the end of the day. They all were. And yet, there they were building their own coffins, oblivious to the lies that were being told to them.

   “In order to gain your fullest life, you must be willing to lose your life.” Bah! “Let go of this life to give yourself the chance for your true life to begin!” Hah! Ridiculous! What kind of nonsense was that, anyway? That sounds like this life isn’t important! But it’s the only life we HAVE! How can it not be worth hanging on to with every fiber of your being?

   He went on his way, munching on more leaves to try and fill the gap in his heart.

   One day, twenty-two day old Thom was off on his own, having spurned the remainder of the caterpillar community and its lies. Suddenly, his preservation instincts kicked in, as something fluttered down towards him from above.

   “Aah! A bird! A bird! Don’t eat me!”

   “Thom, stop worrying! I’m not a bird!”

   The butterfly hovered there, just above him. He’d never seen one from this close before; it was beautiful. The colors were so spectacular! In fact, the colors looked - familiar.

   “Thom, do you recognize me?”

   Why should it know my name?

   “Ahhh…. I’ll admit, you look - vaguely familiar…”

   The butterfly landed on the ground next to Thom.

   “It’s me, Thom. Marty! Don't you recognize me?”

   And then there was a wave of emotion which overwhelmed Thom: amazement, awe, happiness, astonishment...and confusion.

   “Marty, how can this be? How could you have transformed so completely into - well, an entirely different species? It’s impossible!”

    The butterfly smiled, an odd expression on an insect which doesn’t ever frown, per se.    “No, it’s what Mama Jayce told me on the day I made my pupa. We were going to become something wonderful … and she was right.

   “That’s what pupae are, Thom! They’re the world’s greatest changing rooms! Inside those magical sacks, we are transformed into these glorious bodies. And you can do this, too, Thom!”

   “What?”

   “You can still become a butterfly if you want. Just do what Mama Jayce did - hang out with a batch of newbie caterpillars, teach them the ropes, and then when the time comes, make your pupae alongside theirs and wait!”

   “But… But… but I don’t know HOW to turn into a butterfly! Did I miss the instructions somewhere along the line? How did you do it, Marty?”

   “Thom, all you have to do is believe and obey. Understand that it’s a mystery that we can’t explain, but when you go into that pupa sack, somehow your body knows what to do. I mean, it knew how to shed those things exoskeletons, right? Do you know how to do it?”

   “Ah, well, Ah, no. No, I don’t.”

   “And that’s okay! Your body will do it for you. Trust the highest forces. Thom, stop doubting and just believe for once in your analytical life, cat! Just believe!”

   With that, the new butterfly goes soaring into the world, doing twirls and flips and just enjoying life to its fullest in a way that an earth bound caterpillar simply can’t. Thom watched with a bit of envy, and her words came to him:

    “In order to gain your fullest life, you must be willing to give it up. If you can’t let go of this life, you will lose the chance at true life.”

   I wasn’t willing to give up being a caterpillar in order to become a butterfly. I didn’t realize how much more there was in store for me if I only believed. I didn’t realize how my only roadblocks were inside of me.

   Thom stopped doubting that very minute, although the change of heart wasn’t enough by itself. It requires follow-through as well. He began squinching down towards the center of the plain, where he knew the younger caterpillars would be.

   Maybe his wisdom could be of use to them.