Wednesday, August 30, 2017

College Football Forecast, part three

The final part of this preview (and the only part not published in The Roar) looks at what the 124 teams in the FCS are likely to do in the coming months. Understand, please, that there's not nearly as much national coverage of these teams as there are for the FBS teams, so a larger part of the rating you'll see for each team is based on the results from last year - which means that teams benefiting from great recruiting classes, advances in spring ball, problems that cropped up with injuries or transfers or lost assistant coaches won't necessarily be properly accounted for. But we've done the best we can!

Conference by conference, here are our starting ratings and the implied final conference and overall records for each team (* means champion or co-champion; + are teams we expect in the 24-team FCS finals field):

Big Sky Conference
Montana (rating of 40)  7-1, 9-2 *+
Cal Poly SLO (40)   7-1, 8-3 *+
Weber State (39)   7-2, 8-3 +
Eastern Washington (38)    6-2, 7-4
North Dakota (39)  6-2, 8-3
Northern Arizona (42)   5-3, 7-4
Southern Utah (44)   5-3, 6-5
Northern Colorado (46)   4-4, 5-6
Montana State (46)    2-6, 4-7
Portland State (48)    2-7, 2-9
Sacramento State (54)   2-7, 2-9
UC Davis (51)   1-8, 1-10
Idaho State (56)   0-8, 1-10

Big South Conference
Charleston Southern (rating of 38)   5-0, 10-1 (ineligible)
Liberty (40)   4-1, 8-3 *+
Kennesaw State (43)  3-2, 7-4
Monmouth (51)   2-3, 3-8
Gardner-Webb (48)   1-4, 4-7
Presbyterian (53)  0-5, 3-8

Colonial Athletic Association
James Madison (rating of 34)  8-0, 11-0 *+
Villanova (40)  7-1, 9-2+
Richmond (38)   6-2. 9-2+
New Hampshire (41)   5-3, 6-5
Albany (44)   4-4, 6-5
William & Mary (45)   4-4, 6-5
Stony Brook (47)   4-4, 6-5
Maine (47)   4-4, 6-5
Towson (49)   3-5, 4-7
Delaware (47)   2-6, 4-7
Rhode Island (52)   1-7, 1-10
Elon (54)   0-8, 1-10

Ivy League
Penn (rating 46)   6-1, 8-2*
Harvard (47)    6-1, 9-1*
Dartmouth (49)   5-2, 8-2
Princeton (46)   4-3, 7-3
Yale (49)   4-3, 5-5
Cornell (52)   2-5, 3-7
Columbia (54)   1-6, 4-6
Brown (52)   0-7, 3-7

MEAC
North Carolina A&T (rating of 46)   7-1, 10-1*
North Carolina Central (47)   7-1, 9-2*
   (champion goes to Celebration Bowl; second place to FCS playoffs. We think A&T def. Central...)
South Carolina State (50)   6-2, 7-4
Bethune-Cookman (53)   5-3, 5-6
Hampton (53)   4-4, 6-5
Norfolk State (55)   3-5, 4-7
Morgan State (57)   3-5, 3-8
Howard (58)   3-5, 3-8
Delaware State (59)   3-5, 3-8
Savannah State (58)   2-6, 2-9
Florida A&M (59)   1-7, 2-9

Missouri Valley Conference
North Dakota State (rating of 32)   8-0, 11-0*+
Youngstown State (37)   7-1, 9-2 +
South Dakota State (36)   6-2, 9-2 +
Illinois State (39)   5-3, 7-4 +
Northern Iowa (41)   5-3, 6-5
Western Illinois (44)  3-5, 3-8
South Dakota (45)   2-6, 4-7
Indiana State (48)   2-6, 2-9
Southern Illinois (46)  1-7, 3-8
Missouri State (50)   1-7, 2-9

Northeast Conference
Duquesne (rating of 50)   6-0, 8-3* +
St. Francis PA (53)   4-2, 5-6
Wagner (55)  3-3, 4-7
CCSU (57)  3-3, 4-7
Sacred Heart (57)   2-4, 4-7
Robert Morris (59)  2-4, 3-8
Bryant (59)   1-5, 3-8

Ohio Valley Conference
Jacksonville State (rating of 36)  8-0, 10-1 *+
UT-Martin (44)  6-2, 7-4
Eastern Illinois (45)   5-3, 5-6
Tennessee State (44)  4-3, 7-4
Tennessee Tech (46)  4-4, 5-6
Murray State (49)  3-5, 4-7
SE Missouri State (52)  3-5, 3-8
Eastern Kentucky (49)  2-6, 5-6
Austin Peay (59)  0-8, 1-10

Patriot League
Fordham (rating of 45)   5-1, 8-3*+
Lehigh (44)   4-2, 8-3 +
Colgate (47)   4-2, 7-4
Holy Cross (50)   3-3, 4-7
Lafayette (53)   3-3, 4-7
Bucknell (51)   2-4, 5-6
Georgetown (54)   1-5, 2-9

Pioneer League
Dayton (rating of 49)  8-0, 11-0*+
San Diego (46) 7-1, 9-2
Marist (55)   6-2, 6-5
Campbell (57)   5-3, 7-4
Drake (53)   4-4, 6-5
Jacksonville (54)   4-4, 5-6
Morehead State (58)   3-5, 4-7
Stetson (60)   3-5, 3-8
Butler (59)   2-6, 3-8
Valparaiso (60)   2-6, 2-9
Davidson (62)   0-8, 2-9

Southern Conference
Wofford (rating of 37)   7-1, 9-2*+
The Citadel (38)   6-2, 8-3 +
Chattanooga (39)   6-2, 7-4 +
Samford (40)   5-3, 7-4 +
Mercer (44)   4-4, 4-7
Furman (46)   4-4, 5-6
Western Carolina (48)   3-5, 4-7
E Tennessee State (51)   2-6, 4-7
VMI (52)   0-8, 2-9

Southland Conference
Central Arkansas (rating of 40)   9-0, 10-1*+
Sam Houston State (36)   8-1, 9-1 +
Stephen F Austin (45)  7-2, 8-3 +
McNeese State (42)   6-3, 8-3
Nicholls State (44)   6-3, 7-4
SE Louisiana (45)   6-3, 7-4
Incarnate Word (47)   2-6, 4-7
Houston Baptist (49)   2-7, 3-8
Abilene Christian (49)   2-7, 2-9
Northwestern State (52)   1-8, 1-10
Lamar (50)   0-9, 1-10

Southwest Athletic Conference East
Alabama A&M (rating of 55)  5-3, 6-5
Alcorn State (53)   3-5, 4-7
Jackson State (57)   3-5, 4-7
Mississippi Valley State (60)  2-5, 3-8
Alabama State (56)   1-6, 2-8

Southwest Athletic Conference West
Grambling State (43)   8-0, 9-2*
Southern (47)   6-1, 8-3
Prairie View A&M (50)  4-3, 5-6
Texas Southern (55)  4-4, 4-7
Arkansas-Pine Bluff (61)   1-6, 3-8

So, our top 20 teams coming into the season are North Dakota State (32),  defending champ James Madison (34), Jacksonville State, Sam Houston State, and South Dakota State (36), Wofford and Youngstown State (37), Eastern Washington, Charleston Southern, Richmond, and The Citadel (38), Weber State, North Dakota, Chattanooga, and Illinois State (39), Montana, Cal Poly SLO, Liberty, Villanova, and Central Arkansas (40).

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