Saturday, December 2, 2017

A month of thankfulness, Part Three

I want to share these posts with you, to help you consider what you are thankful for. Perhaps some are identical, perhaps some are analogous, perhaps some are completely foreign to you. But the thing that should stick with you is having an ATTITUDE of GRATITUDE, always. Just this one simple change in your life, on its own, can transform you.
Some of the details of these posts are rather personal; obviously, I'm not revealing anything i don't want to reveal. At this late stage, my life is an open book for reading and enhancement of others. But it also means there may be things which don't make sense because you don't know my background. Hopefully it will be clear enough in context, but leave a comment if there's something that's unclear, and I'll clarify. May God bless you in this season of thankfulness. 

A month of thanks.
Nov 11. I had this huge post about how we were founded on the principle that the people should govern - that yes, originally it was the “white male landowners”, but gradually it’s expanded to the ideal that ALL men and women were created equal (even if elements of society today want to renege on that belief today and use bullying tactics to scare us in that direction).
Then I talked about how the 240 years of believing in the American Dream - the idea that the economic power belongs not to the bourgeoisie but the innovative and hard-working - led us to become the greatest economic and not coincidentally military power on earth. And that a strong military can be a danger when its beliefs run contrary to the nation’s, but that we’ve been blessed with ten generations of leaders and recruits who were the staunchest defenders of those principles - sometimes even more so than the elected and unelected people in our government. They have defended not just the people of this nation, but the very principles this nation stands for.
Finally, I thanked the men and women who have served in that military, who put their lives and families at risk so that I never had to, and that I have never forgotten that privilege, I promise I never will forget it, and that I prayed that those who read this would never forget those who were the living manifestation of Romans 13. It was a really great post, to be honest; I was very proud of it.
However, that post seems to have disappeared into the ether. So this is not that post; it is merely a tribute to that post, a tribute to the tribute to the men and women who may not have made this nation the exact ideal the Founding Fathers envisioned, but who have made it closer than any other nation than any other country in existence. Thank you, veterans.


An intermission, on an ugly topic...
In 1986, the McMartin pre-school trials were a frightening moment in American history, when people were convicted in the public eye through only the testimony of young children - children, it turned out, who could be easily manipulated by prosecutors (even well-meaning ones) into accusing people they SUSPECTED of guilt.
I know this because a twelve-year old foster child wrongly accused me of such behavior that year as a math teacher because she was getting a D in my class and wanted to get me in trouble. It was professionally the scariest moment of my life. I have always been grateful to both her foster mom and my principal, both of whom believed in me and refused to go public with the child’s allegations without more proof, despite the public mood - and sure enough, it quickly turned out that the child was lying about a great number of things, including some items she’d stolen, and my crisis was averted. But those types of accusations ruined many people back then.
I wonder how many men are being accused falsely now and are watching their careers explode. I’ve no doubt most if not nearly all of these accusations are probably true, as there’s been an unspoken culture of male sexual gratification for decades, it seems. But it would be trivial to do what the poor twisted foster girl did to me right now: accuse someone you didn’t like for your own vengeful purposes without evidence, and the public would believe your accusations over his defenses without question in this environment.
It’s hard to say that without sounding like I’m belittling those women (and men) who are finally seeing some justice for their pain. That’s not it at all. It goes back to the American ideal: innocent until proven guilty, not the other way around. More than anything else, we are supposedly a nation of laws. I would hate to see that vanish in a climate of innuendo and hatred.


A month of thanks.
Nov 12. I am thankful for the pain and severe fatigue that I enjoy from my Tubular Aggregate Myopathy.
I have to be, because God allows it to take over my body.
Originally, its purpose was to slow me down enough to bring me to the Lord, with Melissa’s loving help, and it did that, forcing me to quit my band teaching career along the way. I appreciated that, actually, and the morphine, oxycodone, and gabapentin were able to keep me sorta functional in the meantime.
Now, it’s progressed to where I’ll be retiring at the age of 53 as soon as the paperwork and evaluations get done. No amount of medicine is preventing the fact that I can no longer drive or even travel any significant distance, or do more than superficially hold or touch my children or my Dana. I’d thought it was to give me time to write for the Lord, but I barely have the energy or strength to do that anymore.
So, I don’t understand what the purpose of its continued progression is, except perhaps to teach me humility. Which is fair, because the pride of life is what’s killing me, and my loving God knows what needs to be honed before I enter His Kingdom. So thank You, God, for loving me enough to force me through this. It means I really am Your child.


A month of thanks. No different than any other month, except this one’s on Facebook.
Nov 13. I am thankful for where I live, and where I have lived.
I spent the first 28 years (minus a year and a half at Caltech in Pasadena) living in an old house in little Newcastle, California. Three acres on a little knoll, pastureland and gardens and room to run around and explore. It was wonderful.
After both of my parents died and I didn’t have anything tying me there, and as I saw the prospects for education in general and music ed in particular looking worse and worse - and the urbanization of the region increasing by leaps and bounds - I resigned at Penryn and spent my spring break looking for a place to move to. The Treasure Valley, greater Boise, felt like Sacramento had growing up, and so after the school year ended I moved up to stay with my godparents Jerry and Vivian Gilbert in Emmett, while I looked for a job.
God was looking out for me even then. Despite moving so late, I had four job offers as a band director in my first ten days there. I took the job in Kuna and spent a year in an apartment in downtown Boise, a wonderful time I spent with my dear Heather Kelly-Smith. Over time I found a house out where Edwards is now, and after she met her future husband, Jesse, I ended up meeting my first wife, Wendy. We bought a house on the Meridian side of town, the house where Hamilton was born. Seven great years teaching in Kuna and living in Boise.
But that kept growing, too. Wendy and I were both country folks, and when Payette came calling with an offer I couldn’t refuse, we moved into our favorite house, the original hospital in Payette on Center Avenue, built in 1900. A big box, beautiful home in a lovely little town an hour out of the city. Even with the difficulties of the job, that was a wonderful place to live and raise our boys.
And for the last twelve years, God’s places us all here in the loving, lovely community of Jerome. I’ve always loved the Magic Valley - had offers to work down here for years, and though the offers were never right, we loved the idea. My dear friend Riqui Peterson had this band job before me, and set it up wonderfully for me to succeed here. We had a lovely house here, where the kids and I continued to live after Wendy left; where Melissa and I spent our marriage; where we lived until a year ago this month when it was clear I was too ill to care for the home anymore and I moved to this trailer park.
So now, I’m in a perfect place for my current situation- tiny home big enough for the kids. But to my surprise, it’s been great for the children too. It’s the first real neighborhood with other children we’ve been in, and the three youngest in particular love it here. Rutherford spends more time outside than he ever had before! And yet it’s quiet here, close to the middle school, close to the J Center. Perfect.
And when it’s time to combine families with Dana, we are both confident that God will find us a perfect home in Jerome to settle into. He’s been so good to me and to her throughout our lives.


A month of thanks. No different than any other month, except the thanks are also on Facebook.
Nov 14. It seems appropriate today to express my thanks to not just Pastor Gene Kissinger and Jerome Free Will Baptist, my current and presumably final church home, but also to my other church homesClay Ramirez and Jerome Believers, Kevin Lindley and the Life Church of Jerome, and Jeff Norton at Northridge, which is where I first attended even before being fully led to my knees while married to Melissa (who’d been saved since she was nineteen).
They have all been such amazing men of faith, men of Scripture, and four of the finest examples of what a Christian should look like. Well-read and extremely adept at sharing God’s Word with not just Scripture itself (the absolute must) but with real life stories and examples, analogies and applications to our lives. Each has his strengths and areas that I’m sure they’d be the first to describe in humility, but every one of them was a literal God-send for me and my family, exactly who we needed at that moment in our lives.
Now, Jeff and his amazing family (Caron and their children) are on the east coast again, in their original stomping grounds. (And I miss them terribly. Even by pastoral standards, Jeff Norton may be the most upstanding man I’ve ever known, true to His Principles to the core.) Jeff is the most erudite Biblical scholar I’ve ever had the pleasure of hearing preach.
Kevin and Allison Lindley have found their calling elsewhere, too, and last I heard were awaiting God’s directions for their next step. I, too, have that sensation in my life right now: knowing that it’s time to leave this post but not sure what the Father has in Mind for me next. Scary, if you don’t have complete faith in His Plan for your life. (And He has never failed me. Ever.)
Clay and Heather and their beautiful little ones are still here, doing what the two of them do best: bringing newcomers to Christ in easy to swallow steps that don’t water down the Gospel, but still make church an easier transition for those who hear His Call but may fear what Christianity might “mean” in their lives. Believers was always filled with young people, many of whom were even younger in the Lord than I.
And Gene and Sandy Kissinger have been friends of mine for years - their oldest child and mine were classmates. Gene’s guidance as a pastor and as a friend has been one of the most indispensable elements of my life these past few years: he has been my biggest supporter as a writer, and so unwavering in his imitation of Christ as to be living proof of the Holy Spirit’s presence in the world. As he would undoubtedly say with all humility, he couldn’t possibly be so perfect a demonstration of everything a pastor should be without Godly aid. My children and Dana and I have been unreasonably blessed by his teaching, his example, and his friendship. (And we’re now sort of related, since their daughter married my step-son. Or vice versa.)
In my final career, God has called me to go to work full time for Him (although certainly not behind a pulpit!). I can only pray that I can do half the job these four men have given me as examples to follow. Thank you all.

Friday, December 1, 2017

A month of thankfulness, Part Two

I want to share these posts with you, to help you consider what you are thankful for. Perhaps some are identical, perhaps some are analogous, perhaps some are completely foreign to you. But the thing that should stick with you is having an ATTITUDE of GRATITUDE, always. Just this one simple change in your life, on its own, can transform you.
Some of the details of these posts are rather personal; obviously, I'm not revealing anything i don't want to reveal. At this late stage, my life is an open book for reading and enhancement of others. But it also means there may be things which don't make sense because you don't know my background. Hopefully it will be clear enough in context, but leave a comment if there's something that's unclear, and I'll clarify. May God bless you in this season of thankfulness. 

A month of thanks. No different than any other, except the thanks are also on our blog.
Nov 6. I am thankful for my son Hamilton Smith. He will be turning 21 in February, and he is a grown man in so many respects. I wish I saw him more - he moved into his mother’s house full time when he was 16 - but when I do, I remember how proud I am of him. He wants to be a biomedical engineer - making robotic parts for people who've lost theirs. His school of choice messed him up, so he's back in town at the local junior college to right his ship and head out to sea again. He has not allowed this set-back to change him, for which I am thankful.


A month of thanks. No different than any other month, except the thanks are on our blog.
Nov 7. I am thankful for my son Emerson. Though his life was brief, his soul lives on and waits for me to see him in Heaven once the Lord comes to get me. His presence there is my driving force, my best hope of convincing his mother to accept Jesus Christ as her savior and go to Heaven as well.
I pray for her salvation daily, as much as a play for my eldest son’s.
And I can hardly wait to see Emerson again.


A month of thanks. No different than any other month, except the thanks are on our blog.
Nov 8. I am thankful for my son Sutherland. I’m always proud of him for the usual reasons: he’s smart, empathetic, amazingly talented as a singer, actor, artist, dancer, writer, and the list goes on.
But here’s something important: I dropped off some black clothes at rehearsal for him on Saturday. After having been joking about the bag holding something illicit, we exchange a hug and, as I’m heading out the drama room door, he says, “I love you, Dad!” I reply in kind, but as the door slowly closes, I can hear three of his friends teasing him about saying that to me - and he immediately starts defending his displays of affection with gusto! I think all five of these kids would do the same - I’ll tell you R’s take tomorrow - but in high school, I was extremely impressed he would do more than shrug it off. Thank you, son. (Grandpa Stan in particular would be pleased.)


A month of thanks. No different than any other month except that the thanks are on our blog.
Nov 9. I am thankful for the existence of Rutherford S. P. Smith, my youngest son. Thirteen and every bit the semi-emo teenager. Everything is “sick” right now. Hair growing to a far-off destination, namely his eldest brother’s length. So happy to have his own room once Isaiah moved out that he hardly ever leaves it.
            And yet ... close to straight A student. Empathy beyond every other child. Known amongst his peers as the best ear in town; I know this because he’s occasionally late getting home from having talked a fellow 13-year old off the figurative ledge.
 And when I told him Sutherland’s take on loving his dad (see the above post), he said, “Yeah, my friends all think I’m weird because I actually CARE what my parents think, and I WANT them to be happy.” Oh, the shame!


A month of thanks. No different than any other month, except that it’s on our blog.
Nov 10. I am thankful for my twins. After all boys, Wendy and I were surprised to get pregnant one last time. She learned over the years how to break the news more genteelly: with Hamilton, it was holding a stick in front of my sleeping eyes and saying, “Ya wanna talk about it?”, while this time it was a nice dinner out, kids with our best friend, and guess what, hubby?
            I remember the twin news better than the pregnancy news, though. She called from the road after the first ultrasound, and said, “Meet me at the curb, and don’t bring the boys.” She got out and handed me the photo. I stared at the two feet for a while until it dawned on me that they weren’t two feet: they were two bodies. Twins.
I was finishing year six in Payette, a community that had lived with our ups and downs, our lost Emerson and our successes with South and Rowdy. And those who cared were split into two camps.
Half were like me, thinking how cool twins (identical, to boot!) were going to be, regardless of gender. The other half had fingers crossed: “I hope they’re girls, I hope they’re girls...”
When she’d gotten the vital ultrasound reveal, she shared the info with me so brilliantly that I stole the reveal for my band. She went shopping afterwards, and the last things she holds up are two little dresses. Girls. I did that to my high school band the next morning, and the flute and clarinet girls all screamed with glee, deafening the rest of us.
Of course, my 5’1” bride barely made 32 weeks with twins from her 6’2” husband. We never got to induce because her body wanted those babies OUTTA there. Besides, “baby girl B” was looking for a way out her rib cage, instead of the designated exit. C-section rescue involved 23 of us in the operating room, ironic when it had just been me and Wendy and the dog for H’s birth.

Thursday, November 30, 2017

A month of thankfulness. Part One

I want to share these posts with you, to help you consider what you are thankful for. Perhaps some are identical, perhaps some are analogous, perhaps some are completely foreign to you. But the thing that should stick with you is having an ATTITUDE of GRATITUDE, always. Just this one simple change in your life, on its own, can transform you.
Some of the details of these posts are rather personal; obviously, I'm not revealing anything i don't want to reveal. At this late stage, my life is an open book for reading and enhancement of others. But it also means there may be things which don't make sense because you don't know my background. Hopefully it will be clear enough in context, but leave a comment if there's something that's unclear, and I'll clarify. May God bless you in this season of thankfulness. 

A month of thanks. No different than any other month, except the thanks are also on this blog.
Nov 1. I thank God that I am one of His Elect. First and foremost, I am thankful for my relationship with Jesus Christ, my Lord and Savior.


A month of thanks. No different than any other month, except the thanks are also on this blog. 
Nov 2. I am thankful for having Dana in my life. The fact that she loves me is more than I can believe most days. I’m unable to drive any distance anymore, so she ends up having to come see me most of the time, as I tremble in pain at the end of each day. I don't know how she puts up with it. I’m so glad she wasn’t here last night (or worse yet, that I wasn’t there) because I spent the whole night screaming in pain. As amazed as I am at her love, I almost literally couldn’t do without her now. She is a literal God-send, brought to me by a Lord Who knows that I need to submit to His Will, and be willing to allow her to help me even when my stubbornness and pride fight against it. She is the perfect partner at the perfect time of my life, and I will never, never be able to thank her sufficiently for what she means to me in these last years of my life.


A month of thanks. No different than any other month, except the thanks are also on this blog. 
Nov 3. I am thankful for this school district. The Jerome school district (specifically Eric Anderson) graciously kept me employed when I couldn’t keep stick-waving once I got sick, putting me in charge of the alternative school (a much more sedentary job). But after two more years of deterioration it was clear I couldn’t even handle that job any more on my own, so rather than encourage me to retire, the district (specifically Dale Layne) brought on an assistant, an amazing woman who deserves a day of thanks all her own.
Now, 2 1/2 years of increasing pain and fatigue down the road, it’s time to throw in the towel. But because the district was willing to let me start each year despite the doubt over my ability to finish that year, I have the flexibility to start looking into disability retirement mid-year, and the district (specifically Gina Cakebread) is helping with the paperwork.
When I taught band, the district treated me like royalty. Once I couldn’t do what I was hired for, they still treat me like royalty. And I am so thankful to have this be my last stop in the field.



A month of thanks. No different than any other month, except the thanks are also on this blog. 
Nov 4. I am so thankful for Wendy Somerset, who Dale Layne called in to be my assistant after I'd run the alternative school for two years. I was continuing to deteriorate, and my superintendent realized I wouldn't make it through another year of that alone.
What he probably didn't know was what an angel God was sending me through him. She took as her professional mission the task of keeping me teaching for as long as she possibly could - and I guarantee the last three years would have been literally impossible. She has taken everything off my shoulders that she possibly could. There have been more and more occasions when all I could do was sit in a chair while she did virtually everything, and she does - and not only never complains, but complains if I TRY to do something when I'm clearly not up to it. I walked in Thursday, hobbling in pain, and she hollered, "What are you doing here? Go home! I've got this." So I turned around and walked out the door momentarily, freaking the students out as she explained to them why she was playing mom.
Because she's not only my teaching partner, she's my "den mom", my Christian sister, my angel, my career support, and (except for Dana) my best friend. And it broke her heart as much as mine when I had to call PERSI about retirement paperwork.

A month of thanks. No different than any other month, except that it’s on this blog. 
Nov 5. I am thankful for my parents. My mother, Dorothy Alice Smith, was an amazing woman. My father, Stanley Eugene Smith, was a brilliant man. And as is the case with most children, I didn’t appreciate them sufficiently when they were alive.
Mom died when I was 20; Dad, when I was 27. They never met Wendy. They never met Dana. They never got to meet their grandchildren. They did know Melissa, and my kids were always astounded to hear stories of teenaged Gordon from her. But most of all, they got to see their grandparents through someone else’s eyes besides mine.

Through mine, what they see is love - respect - affection - hugs - wit - brilliance - and the desire to help anyone, everyone who needed it. Above all, they were teachers: not just professionally, but personally. It was a privilege to grow up with them in my life.

Wednesday, November 29, 2017

Conference championship weekend in college football!

            This Saturday is the penultimate event on the FBS calendar in American collegiate football – the weekend when all the conference championships are determined, and the bowl invitations are passed out, including the four most treasured invites to the National Championship playoff games.
            We had a good predictive week last week, going 54 and 10 in our forecasts overall and 20-6 in the games we shared in this space last week. We use the ELO-Following Football rating system: not a complicated rating system in its essence, where we simply compare the game results to the ratings’ predictions and then adjust the new ratings by zero to four points towards the team that did better than expectations.
            For example, we expected Florida State to beat Florida by four points. They ended up winning 38-22, a sixteen-point margin, which happens to equate to FSU improving by a point and Florida adding a point to their rating. On the other hand, the system expected Tennessee to defeat Vanderbilt by nine; instead, they were routed 42-24. (It didn’t account for the change in coaches, primarily.) So Vandy improved by three points, and the Volunteers dropped three more points away from the top, as they should, being worse than we thought they were. The “ELO” element ensures that there’s a balance between what one team gains and its opponent loses; we have criteria that tampers with that element on rare occasions, but in principle that’s what happens.
            In the FBS games we predicted, we went 12-5. The five we missed included the Tennessee game we just mentioned, Ole Miss’ upset of Mississippi State (and MSU then lost their coach to Florida! Bad day for them!), Nevada’s surprise loss to their in-state rivals at UNLV, 23-16, Miami’s let-down at Pittsburgh (the second year in a row Pitt has upset a top-2 team in the stretch drive…but last year, it was Clemson, which came back to win the title!), and the huge upset in Auburn, Alabama, where the Tigers handled the Crimson Tide 28-16.
            Our winning picks included Washington (routed WSU 41-14), Ohio State and Wisconsin in the Big Ten, Clemson (over South Carolina), UCF (49-42 winners on a kick-off return for a touchdown to win the game in the fourth quarter), NC State, Georgia, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Stanford, and Toledo. Oh, and Iowa trounced Nebraska 56-14, which caused Nebraska to fire their coach after a 4-8 season, and greedily eye the young man running the 11-0 Central Florida team, Scott Frost, who just happens to be a former Nebraska quarterback…
            Coach raiding is (unfortunately) a way of life in any sports system where you have so many different levels of the activity so interconnected: Power Five, Group of Five, FCS, Division 2, Division 3, and so on down the line. Even cross-pollination like Florida taking in-conference rival Mississippi State’s coach Dan Mullen can happen when there’s such a discrepancy in money and facilities availability. But most often intra-conference or other parallel moves only happen when there’s some local connection, like Nebraska’s hoping will happen with the UCF coach, Scott Frost, who led the Cornhusker team to a national championship 20 years ago.

            Let’s take a look at the nine conference championship games set for this Saturday (the Sun Belt does not play a title game):
            Clemson v Miami-Florida in Charlotte for the ACC title (we have Clemson by 8; Vegas says 9.5 points).
            Ohio State v Wisconsin in Indianapolis for the Big Ten (we see Ohio St by three; Vegas doubles that).
            TCU at Oklahoma for the Big Twelve (we say OU by six; Vegas says seven).
            Auburn v Georgia at Atlanta for the SEC (Vegas picks Georgia to gain revenge on Auburn, favoring them by 2.5; we see the game as a toss-up.)
Stanford v USC in Santa Clara for the Pac-12 championship (we say Stanford by four; Vegas goes with Southern Cal by three. Should be interesting!).
            Memphis at Central Florida for the American conference (UCF by five. Regardless of who wins, the winner here is the Group of Five’s New Year’s Six representative.)
            North Texas at Florida Atlantic for Conference-USA’s title (Vegas says FAU by ten; we say 13.)
            Toledo v. Akron in Detroit for the MAC title (Toledo is favored by 14 on our board and 20 in Las Vegas)
            Fresno State at Boise State for the Mountain West (the rerun of last weekend’s 28-17 Fresno win is predicted to go the other way this Saturday – we say Boise by 7; Vegas says 9.)
            And in the Sun Belt, the two games that will informally determine the champion are Troy at Arkansas State (both are 6-1 in conference, and ASU is a 2-point favorite) and Appalachian State hosting Louisiana-Lafayette (where they are 16 point favorites on our board, 15 in Vegas) to stay tied with the Troy/ASU winner at one loss in conference. IF they lose to ULL, then the winner of Troy/ASU will be the sole champion of the Sun Belt conference. (For a change!)

            After those games have been played on Saturday, we expect the announcement Sunday evening about the four teams chosen for the National Championship semifinals. The consensus opinion at the moment is that the winner of the SEC title game is in, and the winner of the ACC title game is also in. Following that, IF the Oklahoma Sooners can win the Big Twelve title game (at home) and IF Wisconsin stays undefeated by winning against Ohio State in the Big Ten (that would be a slight upset), then those two teams are in the final four as well, and we’re settled.

IF one or both of those teams lose, then what?
Do you put a one-loss Alabama team in, losing only to a possible SEC champion on the road, over a two-loss Ohio State who may be playing the best ball in the country right now? Or do you consider TCU with two losses? Or Wisconsin with one loss to the only highly-ranked team they played? Or Southern Cal with two losses if they win the Pac-12? Do you consider Miami/Clemson/Georgia/Auburn if they’ve lost their conference championship games? What about a 12-0 Central Florida team in the “little” American Athletic Conference?
Personally, I’d consider TCU or Ohio State first, as conference champs, even with two losses – and therefore even Stanford or USC. Alabama is unquestionably the best of the teams not playing this weekend, and has the best record of the “losers” to boot. And I know I’m a Group of Five blowhard, but I’d consider 12-0 UCF, an AAC titlist, over a three-loss non-champ any day of the week. Maybe even a two-loss team.
It will be interesting, unless Wisconsin and Oklahoma make it easy for the committee. (This is why, as much as I hate the idea, an eight-team tournament makes so much sense. Five Power Five conference champs, one from the Group of Five, and two wild cards. I love four teams – it just feels right – but four available slots when there are five conferences in charge is stupid.)
           
            On to the FCS level, where seven of our eight predictions came up golden – but like everyone else, we underestimated the weak Pioneer League’s strong champion, the San Diego Toreros. San Diego was expected to be easy fodder for Northern Arizona, third in the powerful Big Sky conference – instead, USD destroyed NAU 41-10, with Northern Arizona’s only touchdown coming in garbage time in the late fourth quarter.
Otherwise, however, we were perfect: Stony Brook wiped out Lehigh 59-29 (we’d underestimated and said 12 points); Weber State beat Western Illinois 21-19 in the best game of the weekend (we picked them by three); New Hampshire beat Central Connecticut 14-0 (we’d thought a ten-point margin was about right). Northern Iowa was supposed to win by nine – well, try 39 instead: they routed Monmouth 46-7. Furman was a 10-point favorite over our sentimental preference, Elon, and were it not for a failed two-point conversion, they would have taken Furman to overtime or won outright, rather than losing 28-27. Kennesaw State did indeed win handily over a strong Samford team, 28-17; and while Nicholls State put up a good fight, South Dakota held to their four-point advantage up, winning 38-31.

This coming Saturday, we expect all of the rested, seeded teams to be victorious over these eight winners, with the possible exception of Furman (we see a tossup at Wofford) and South Dakota (we see Sam Houston State as a five-point favorite, but others have USD as the favorite there). Here are our ELO-FF predictions:
Weber State @ Southern Utah (-3).
Kennesaw State @ Jacksonville State (-6).
New Hampshire @ Central Arkansas (-19).
Stony Brook @ James Madison (-20).
Northern Iowa @ South Dakota State (-8).
South Dakota @ Sam Houston State (-5).
San Diego @ North Dakota State (-17).
Furman @ Wofford (even).
            Almost everyone who’s paid attention to the FCS this year is simply waiting for the first Saturday of 2018, when we all presume James Madison University will try to defend its newly won title against five-time-previous winner North Dakota State in Frisco, Texas. We’re treating all the rest of these games as just entertaining window dressing to keep us occupied until the two powerhouses meet on January 6th for all the marbles.

Plus, there’s the SWAC championship, where the winner goes to the Celebration Bowl to face North Carolina A&T for the HBC (Historically Black College) championship: Alcorn State @ Grambling State (-18), after a GSU victory over their chief rival Southern University last weekend.

[Originally published in The Roar, Nov 29, 2017]

Wednesday, November 22, 2017

And Down The Stretch They Come!

            The final regular season week is here for the FBS schools in college football, which determines who goes to conference championship games, who goes to one of the 39 bowl games, and eventually which four teams are selected to play January football for the national championship. It’s also the beginning of the 24-team playoff bracket for the top teams in the ten FCS conferences who participate – the two conferences of “Historically Black Colleges” hold their own title bowl game December 16, and the Ivy League schools (Yale was the champion this year) do not participate in anything beyond the ten game schedule they just concluded.

            Let’s look at the lower-division FCS teams first: of the eight teams we forecast to receive top eight seeds (and the week off that comes with it) two weeks ago, seven of them did indeed get selected – in order, #1 James Madison (Virginia, of the Colonial conference), North Dakota State (MVC champ), Jacksonville State (of Alabama, the OVC champ), Central Arkansas (the Southland conference champ), South Dakota State (MVC runner-up), Sam Houston State (Texas, the Southland runner-up), and Wofford (in South Carolina, the Southern Conference champ). The number eight seed was indeed the Big Sky conference champion, as expected, but that turned out to be Southern Utah rather than Weber State.
            This week’s eight games set up to determine their eight opponents next week. Included are our ELO-Following Football point spread predictions and who the winner would play:
            Lehigh (Patriot conference champ) at Stony Brook (CAA 2nd place) – winner plays at James Madison. Lehigh went 5-1 in the Patriot League, and 0-5 outside it. Stony Brook by 12.
            Western Illinois (MVC at-large) at Weber State (Big Sky co-champ) – winner plays at Southern Utah. We like Weber by three.
            Central Connecticut State (NEC champ) at New Hampshire (CAA at-large) – winner plays at Central Arkansas. CCSU came from 2-9 last year to win the Northeast, unbeaten in conference. But New Hampshire plays in a much tougher league: UNH by 10.
            Monmouth (Big South runner-up) at Northern Iowa (MVC at-large) – winner plays at South Dakota State. We’re ecstatic Monmouth made it in, but we like NIU by nine here.
            San Diego (Pioneer champ) at Northern Arizona (Big Sky at-large) – winner plays at North Dakota State. We favor NAU by two.
            Furman (Southern Conference at-large) at Elon (CAA at-large) – winner plays at Wofford. Elon has had a great turnaround season, but we think Furman ends it by ten.
            Samford (Southern Conference at-large) at Kennesaw State (Big South champ) – winner plays at Jacksonville State. We think Kennesaw was disrespected in its placement, and we like them here by six.
            South Dakota (MVC at-large) at Nicholls State (Southland at-large) – winner plays at Sam Houston State. We’re really happy for Nicholls State, which went 0-12 three years ago. But South Dakota could have been seeded, so we’re predicting USD by four.
            Two weeks ago, we thought Western Carolina might represent the Southern Conference instead of Samford, but this was the right call: Samford has more good wins, and WCU lost its last game 65-10. We’re surprised Nicholls State got in over conference foe McNeese State, but we’re excited to see how them manage against a tournament veteran like South Dakota. Illinois State fell apart towards the end of the season, and Northern Iowa deserved “their spot” in the tournament. The other teams we were thinking had a good shot Saturday night included Eastern Washington of the Big Sky (on pedigree as much as record), and our precious Governors from Austin Peay, which went 7-1 in conference and 8-1 in FCS (their other three losses were to good FBS teams). But when you break a 29-game losing streak THIS season, it may be too early to expect more than a pat on the back this year.
            As for those “HBC” conferences, the SWAC has a couple of weeks left to settle its internal squabbles, while the MEAC behemoth awaits. Southern and Grambling put on their annual “Battle of the Bands” surrounded by a football game in New Orleans this weekend (we like Grambling by six), the winner to play Alcorn State for the league title next week. After that, the SWAC champion gets to play in the brand-new Mercedes-Benz stadium in Atlanta on December 16 against 11-0 North Carolina A&T, which we would favor over anyone in the SWAC right now.

            On to the last week of the FBS season!
            The biggest games are three of the traditional rivalries that will determine division championships, and probably the best game of the three will be Alabama at Auburn, to settle the fate of the SEC West. We all assumed ‘Bama would dust the field with the Tigers until Auburn demolished SEC East champ Georgia 40-13 last week; now, even though Alabama still has the best rating in the sport, Auburn is only a five-point underdog on our rating scale. The winner plays Georgia for the SEC title and presumably a spot in the playoff foursome.
            The second important rivalry game is Washington/Washington State, and if WSU can overcome what we have as a four-point margin against them, they would win the Pac-12 North and take on USC for the conference title. If they lose, Stanford will host the title game. Regardless of outcome, though, the Pac-12 champion is NOT guaranteed a spot in the playoff; other teams ahead of them will have to lose.
            One of those might be Wisconsin, which will be a two-TD favorite against Minnesota. But if the undefeated Badgers make it past the Gophers and then defeat Ohio State in the Big Ten title game, they’ll be in the final four. If not, though, it’s not clear if the two-loss Buckeyes are in; part of that determination depends on how they look against their arch-rivals this weekend, the Michigan Wolverines. We have OSU as a 9-point choice, and we would currently favor them by five against Wisconsin on the neutral field in Indianapolis they’ll play on next week.
            Clemson and Miami have warm-up games before they meet in a winner-take-playoff spot game on December 2 for the ACC title, regardless of the outcomes this weekend. Both are 12-point road favorites on our books, Clemson at South Carolina and Miami at Pittsburgh.
            The third rivalry game with conference title implications takes place in Orlando Friday, where South Florida and Central Florida match up for the AAC East title in the “War On I-4”. The winner will be the favorite against 9-1 Memphis for both the conference title and the New Year’s Six bowl game spot allotted to the best non-Power Five team in the country. (We favor the home UCF Golden Knights by nine this week.)
The only other real rival for that position at this point in the rankings outside the AAC might be Boise State in the Mountain West, which has an interesting situation Saturday night. Both Boise and Fresno State have clinched their respective divisions with one game left to play…against each other, oddly enough. So they’ll play two consecutive games: the first, with nothing on the line, and the second, for the conference title. Our puzzle – how would you coach that first game? Do you play conservatively, show nothing, and rest your stars? Or go all-out, try to run them into the ground and send a message, maybe show them seven weird formations they’ll have to prepare for all next week? We’re going to be fascinated to find out how the coaches handle this odd situation! (Under normal circumstances, we’d favor Boise by five. But this game? I wouldn’t bet this game on a death threat.)
Here’s a run-down of ELO-FF’s predictions of other rivalry games that don’t have title implications riding on them:
Ø  North Carolina State by ten at North Carolina.
Ø  Georgia over Georgia Tech in Atlanta by ten.
Ø  Florida State by four at Florida.
Ø  Virginia Tech by a touchdown on the road versus Virginia.
Ø  Iowa by six at Nebraska.
Ø  Stanford by five at home versus Notre Dame.
Ø  We see Arizona at Arizona State as an even game.
Ø  Tennessee is a nine-point favorite at home against Vanderbilt.
Ø  Mississippi State is a six-point home favorite against Ole Miss Thursday night in the “Egg Bowl”.
Ø  Western Michigan is a nine-point underdog at the Glass Bowl against Toledo.

Ø  Nevada-Reno has a three-point edge at home against UNLV.