...here are the Act II predictions for the FCS playoffs, including the eight seeds and where the other sixteen teams will line up below them:
1) James Madison (11-0) will take on the winner of Furman (7-4) and Austin Leay (8-4). We think. Remember, this is only OUR guesswork. Check later in the week for the real lineup!
8) Kennesaw State (10-1) will host the winner of Lehigh (5-6, the Patriot league champ) and Samford (8-3).
4) Jacksonville State (10-1) will play at home against the winner of McNeese State (9-2) and Northern Iowa (7-4).
5) South Dakota State (9-2) waits for the survivor of the Big Sky battle betwixt Northern Arizona (7-4) and Eastern Washington (also 7-4), which didn’t play each other this season.
2) North Dakota State (10-1) will host the winner of Southern Illinois (7-4) and Weber State (9-2).
7) Wofford (9-2) awaits the winner of Stony Brook (9-2) and NEC champ Central Connecticut State (8-3).
3) Central Arkansas (10-1) will play either Elon (8-3) or Western Illinois (8-3).
And 6) Southern Utah (9-2) will host the San Diego (9-2) / Sam Houston State (10-1) winner.
Okay? Let’s see how close we get...
I blog about a variety of things that interest me: much of it stems from Christ and God, as the description of ACT 2 MINISTRIES attests. BUT topics also include football of all types (American, mostly, but Australian Rules is my passion!), music (I taught, composed, and performed for thirty years), and life, love, sports, family, and even the "real world" as it intervenes. Come along for the ride and be part of the family!
Saturday, November 18, 2017
Wednesday, November 15, 2017
Finally, an answer to our mysterious disappearance
Except for the pieces we've been writing for The Roar down in Australia (and this time of year, those have been pretty exclusively about American college football), there's been a hiatus of a couple of weeks at least where we haven't added very much to your reading, particularly on the Christian front.
There are two reasons for that.
1) Much of the time I'd normally spend on writing new material for Act II Ministries has been spent editing and selecting essays for a new project, available soon: a collection of the best Christian essays from the past year-plus of Act II to be published before Christmas. There were over three hundred different pieces to choose from, and we want to make this book something that will help win people to Christ, or strengthen the commitment of those who have already found the Lord's goodness.
2) My health has taken a turn for the worse, as it occasionally does. Many times previously I've discussed the 'thorn in my side', the tubular aggregate myopathy which God allowed me to have, which slowed me down enough to take the time to listen to Him and begin walking by His Side. But the disease hasn't gone away just because I became a Christian, and its effects have now reached to point where I'm having to start the process of disability retirement from my regular teaching job.
In the meantime, typing has become more difficult for me - not so much the physical aspect but trying to stay coordinated enough to spell something correctly (or at least well enough for the auto-correct to help!) My poor girlfriend has gotten the brunt of my bad typing: my texts are almost unreadable at times! Having the mental stamina to put out these posts is becoming more and more rare. Even when I'm back on first priority for this blog, I suspect posts will be fewer and farther between because of it. (On the other hand, when I stop teaching altogether, I may have more time to dedicate to this production, too!)
The truth is, I've been very fortunate as far as this disease goes. It was discovered in just about one year from first appointment to diagnosis, much faster than the very few people I'm aware of with the condition (there are only about 50-75 of us TAM sufferers in the world, apparently). So before I'd followed the obvious doctoral advice of exercising more to stay in shape - the worst advice for a TAM sufferer, because that creates more tubules faster! - I learned not to. The people I'd talked to on line with the condition were already wheelchair bound and out of work before the condition was diagnosed; I got six more years before this moment! And while I'm very wobbly when I walk, I'm not in a wheelchair as of yet, either! So I'm very blessed in that sense.
My girlfriend has been a huge help, as have my tween and teen children. Moving to a small house last year undoubtedly prolonged my health. My assistant teacher is probably doing 90% of the classroom work, in hopes of extending my stay as a teacher. The school district I work for has been tremendous in its support. All in all, I really have no complaints given the condition I suffer from. God through His human appendages has been very good to me.
It's my aim to make it alive until the Rapture, which I sincerely believe is within the next year, maybe two years at most. Honestly, that's one of the things that keeps me going when the fight seems hopeless. I also know that God has a plan for my remaining time on earth, no matter how short it is, or He would have taken me along with my late wife four years ago. So I don't want to usurp His right to take or give my life - it's not my role, no matter how much preferable Heaven will be to my current malaise of pain and exhaustion. That's His Call.
So, I'm still here. I'm still fighting. I may not be getting very much done, but anything I can accomplish for Him is more than nothing. God bless you all, and I love you all.
There are two reasons for that.
1) Much of the time I'd normally spend on writing new material for Act II Ministries has been spent editing and selecting essays for a new project, available soon: a collection of the best Christian essays from the past year-plus of Act II to be published before Christmas. There were over three hundred different pieces to choose from, and we want to make this book something that will help win people to Christ, or strengthen the commitment of those who have already found the Lord's goodness.
2) My health has taken a turn for the worse, as it occasionally does. Many times previously I've discussed the 'thorn in my side', the tubular aggregate myopathy which God allowed me to have, which slowed me down enough to take the time to listen to Him and begin walking by His Side. But the disease hasn't gone away just because I became a Christian, and its effects have now reached to point where I'm having to start the process of disability retirement from my regular teaching job.
In the meantime, typing has become more difficult for me - not so much the physical aspect but trying to stay coordinated enough to spell something correctly (or at least well enough for the auto-correct to help!) My poor girlfriend has gotten the brunt of my bad typing: my texts are almost unreadable at times! Having the mental stamina to put out these posts is becoming more and more rare. Even when I'm back on first priority for this blog, I suspect posts will be fewer and farther between because of it. (On the other hand, when I stop teaching altogether, I may have more time to dedicate to this production, too!)
The truth is, I've been very fortunate as far as this disease goes. It was discovered in just about one year from first appointment to diagnosis, much faster than the very few people I'm aware of with the condition (there are only about 50-75 of us TAM sufferers in the world, apparently). So before I'd followed the obvious doctoral advice of exercising more to stay in shape - the worst advice for a TAM sufferer, because that creates more tubules faster! - I learned not to. The people I'd talked to on line with the condition were already wheelchair bound and out of work before the condition was diagnosed; I got six more years before this moment! And while I'm very wobbly when I walk, I'm not in a wheelchair as of yet, either! So I'm very blessed in that sense.
My girlfriend has been a huge help, as have my tween and teen children. Moving to a small house last year undoubtedly prolonged my health. My assistant teacher is probably doing 90% of the classroom work, in hopes of extending my stay as a teacher. The school district I work for has been tremendous in its support. All in all, I really have no complaints given the condition I suffer from. God through His human appendages has been very good to me.
It's my aim to make it alive until the Rapture, which I sincerely believe is within the next year, maybe two years at most. Honestly, that's one of the things that keeps me going when the fight seems hopeless. I also know that God has a plan for my remaining time on earth, no matter how short it is, or He would have taken me along with my late wife four years ago. So I don't want to usurp His right to take or give my life - it's not my role, no matter how much preferable Heaven will be to my current malaise of pain and exhaustion. That's His Call.
So, I'm still here. I'm still fighting. I may not be getting very much done, but anything I can accomplish for Him is more than nothing. God bless you all, and I love you all.
Tuesday, November 14, 2017
FBS on the home stretch!
[Originally published in The Roar Nov 14, 2017]
Last week, we took a gander at the
lower half of Division 1 American college football as it hit the
two-weeks-to-go mark before the playoff selection. This week, it’s the upper
half, the ten FBS conferences, who have two weeks to go before the conference
championship games take place and the final bowl and playoff selections occur. (Generally, teams must win six games to
become bowl eligible.) Let’s look at those conferences and where their
teams line up for those possibilities.
Atlantic
Coast (ACC): In the Coastal division, Miami-FL cinched the division
title even before demolishing Notre Dame Saturday night, and will face Clemson,
who finished its conference play at 7-1 with a win over poor Florida State and
clinched the Atlantic division. The winner of that game has the inside track on
one of the four playoff positions IF they win out.
Bowl
participants: definitely Miami (currently 9-0), Clemson (9-1), North
Carolina State (7-3), Virginia (6-4), Louisville (6-4), Wake Forest (6-4) and
Virginia Tech (7-3); probably Boston
College (projected to finish 7-5), Georgia Tech (6-5); possibly Pitt
(projected 4-8), Duke (4-8), and Syracuse (4-8).
American
(AAC): The winner of the South Florida at Central Florida game in two weeks
will be the East division champ, and Memphis has the inside track to win the
West with wins over SMU and East Carolina in the next two weeks. The East champ
is most likely going to be the New Year’s Six representative.
Bowl participants: definitely UCF
(9-0), USF (8-1), Memphis (8-1), Houston (6-3), SMU (6-4), and Navy (6-3); possibly Temple (projected at 5-7), and Tulane (4-8).
Big
Ten: Wisconsin
has the chance to win out and make the College Football Playoff, with victories
over Michigan, Minnesota, and the East champion (most likely Ohio State).
They’ve got the West sewn up already; the Buckeyes have a leg up on the East division
at 6-1, and with a pair of wins against Illinois and at Michigan will cinch the
East.
Bowl participants: definitely Ohio
State (8-2), Michigan (8-2), Michigan State (8-2), Penn State (7-3), Wisconsin
(10-0), Northwestern (7-3), and Iowa (6-4); possibly
Nebraska (projected
4-8), Minnesota (5-7), Purdue (5-7), Maryland (4-8), and Rutgers (4-8).
Big
Twelve: Oklahoma has one spot in the pointless title game wrapped up
with a win over TCU Saturday. TCU is still the leading candidate for the other
slot, tied with Oklahoma State and West Virginia at 5-2. (Despite everyone playing everyone else, the “XII” has the top two play
again, with the assumption that one more win looks too good for the playoff
committee to pass up…forgetting that the one more loss may exclude their best
candidate. We’re going to find out in three weeks!)
Bowl
participants: definitely Oklahoma (9-1) Oklahoma State (8-2), TCU
(8-2), West Virginia (7-3), Iowa State
(6-4); probably Texas (projected 6-6); possibly Kansas
State (projected 5-7), Texas Tech
(projected 5-7).
Conference
USA: Florida International goes
to Florida Atlantic next week, with FAU hoping to clinch the East division
crown. North Texas is 6-1 in the West, and has only a bowl of Rice in front of
it for a West division title.
Bowl
participants: definitely North Texas (7-3), Alabama-Birmingham (7-3...
unless the state school board interferes again!), FAU (7-3), FIU (6-3), Southern
Miss (6-4), and Marshall (7-3); probably Middle Tennessee (projected 6-6), Western Kentucky
(7-5) and UTSA (7-5); possibly
Louisiana Tech
(projected 5-7).
Mid-American
(MAC): Ohio just beat Toledo 38-10 this past Wednesday; that’s very likely
to be the match-up again in a few weeks for the MAC title, barring a slip-up
from either team (although Ohio has Akron next Tuesday, and Toledo has Western
Michigan in two weeks).
Bowl
participants: definitely Ohio (8-2), Toledo (8-2), Northern Illinois
(7-3), Western (6-4)
and Central Michigan (6-4); probably
Akron (projected 6-6); possibly
Miami-Ohio (projected
5-7) and Buffalo (5-7).
Mountain
West (MWC): With a win over San Diego State to its credit, Fresno State
would have to lose to more than just to Boise on November 25 to lose the West
division crown; meanwhile, Boise State would have to lose to more than just
Fresno to lose the Mountain division crown. What we’re saying is that those two
teams will be playing two consecutive games in weeks 13 and 14: the first one
will be completely meaningless, while the latter one will be for the title.
That will make the first game an interesting chess match…
Bowl
participants:
definitely Fresno State (7-3), San Diego State (8-2), Boise State (8-2),
Colorado State (6-5), and Wyoming (7-3); probably Utah State (projected 6-6);
possibly UNLV (projected 4-8) and Air Force (5-7).
Pacific
12 (Pac-12): Stanford's whipping of Washington means that Washington State
is one Apple Cup win away from winning a three-way battle for the North
division title; lose to UW, and Stanford hosts the title game against the
already-sealed and delivered Southern Cal Trojans. Washington could still win
if they beat WSU ("Wazzu") and Stanford loses to Cal-Berkeley in
"the Big Game" this weekend.
With the cannibalization the league has committed, and no team having
less than two losses, it's almost inconceivable that any Pac-12 team will make
the final four.
Bowl
participants: definitely
Washington (8-2), WSU (9-2), Stanford (7-3), Arizona (7-3), USC (9-2); probably
Arizona State (projected 6-6), Oregon (6-6), Utah (6-6), UCLA (6-6); possibly Cal
(projected 5-7), Colorado (5-7).
Southeastern
(SEC): With Georgia’s loss to Auburn, the stage is set for next week's Iron
Bowl between 10-0 Alabama and 8-2 Auburn, the winner becoming the West division
titlist and getting (a possible rematch with) Georgia for the SEC title. It
sure looks like the Iron Bowl winner would have to be one of the four CFP
favorites at the moment, and if the winner beats Georgia (again), that's a
certainty.
Bowl
participants: definitely
Alabama, Georgia (9-1), Auburn, Kentucky (7-3), South Carolina (7-3), LSU
(7-3), Mississippi State (7-3), and Texas A&M (6-4); probably Missouri
(projected 7-5 after a terrible start); possibly Tennessee (projected 5-7),
Vanderbilt (4-8), Arkansas (4-8); Ole Miss is ineligible despite their current
5-5 record.
Sun
Belt: Four teams now have one conference loss, and with no title game
it seems very likely that co-champions might happen. But looking at the
upcoming schedules (Troy hosts Arkansas State and App St plays Georgia State),
it looks like the most likely outcome involves a tie between Appalachian State
and Troy; since they don't play each other this year, they seem likely to
finish co-champs. (No title game, no complete round-robin. It's the opposite
stupidity of the Big Twelve's stupidity.)
Bowl
participants:
definitely Troy (8-2), Appalachian State (6-4), and Georgia State (6-3);
probably Arkansas State (projected 8-3) and New Mexico State (7-5); possibly
UL-Lafayette (projected 5-7), UL-Monroe (4-7), Idaho (4-8) and South Alabama
(4-8).
Independent
teams: Notre Dame is 8-2 and was
virtually guaranteed a final four playoff spot until their rout at undefeated
Miami Saturday. But they lost to 9-1 Georgia by just one point and have wins
against Temple, Boston College, Michigan State, USC, North Carolina State, and
Wake Forest; add the Midshipmen and Cardinal to that list and they might still
get into the finals, particularly if Miami goes in undefeated. Army is 8-2 and
guaranteed a bowl bid, while UMass and BYU together don’t have enough wins to
qualify.
So, our current projections with two
weeks to go before conference title games? Our
four CFP finalists would be Alabama (SEC), Oklahoma (Big Twelve), Wisconsin
(Big Ten), and the Clemson - Miami winner (ACC), assuming wins go their
way in November.
And the clamoring for an eight-team playoff increases exponentially if
either Notre Dame makes it or a second ACC or SEC team makes the playoffs. Personally,
we HATE the idea of expansion, but money says that the five Power Five
conferences will NOT continue with a contract that automatically prevents at
least one and in this case up to THREE of them from getting a cut of the
biggest pie. Expect to see an eight-team finals with the five Power Five champs
guaranteed a spot and three wild cards when the next contract comes up; and if
there’s any justice in the world, one of those
spots would be guaranteed to a Group of Five team. (But if they actually DO that, we’ll faint.)
As for the conference champions? In
order, we expect them to be Clemson
(ACC), Central Florida (AAC), Ohio State (Big Ten), Oklahoma (Big Twelve), FIU (Conference USA), Ohio (MAC), Boise State (MWC), USC
(Pac 12), Alabama (SEC), and Appalachian State / Troy (Sun Belt).
Finally, there are 39 FBS bowl games
this year (not counting the title game),
so there need to be 78 teams that qualify for bowl games to fill those slots.
“Qualify” traditionally means six wins against FBS competition. We just listed 98
teams who could possibly make that
goal, but only 72 who probably will make that target. In that situation,
the six teams at 5-7 (or 5-6) which have the best academic scores will be
invited to fill out those remaining openings in bowl games. (Last year, all five such teams won
their bowls, I think. Maybe they went 4-1, but it was impressive nonetheless.)
Next
week’s top games look like this:
Ø
Michigan
at Wisconsin, the toughest test for the Badgers before the B1G title game. (We favor the home Badgers on
our ELO-Following Football rating system by 11 points.)
Ø
Two
traditional Pac-12 matchups in California: UCLA @ USC and Cal @ Stanford. (USC by 16 and Stanford by
14.)
Ø
Missouri
@ Vanderbilt and Texas A&M @ Ole Miss, two SEC games for bowl eligibility. (Mizzou by 7 and A&M by
2.)
Ø
FIU
at Florida Atlantic for the C-USA East laurels. (FAU is favored by 17, remarkably.)
Ø
James
Madison at Elon for the Colonial AA title. (Elon, like all the rest of JMU's opponents
this season, is a 2-3 touchdown underdog.)
Ø
Austin
Peay at Eastern Illinois in the Ohio Valley, very possibly for an FCS playoff
spot. (APU
is a 2-point underdog, but has won all four games we've had them as
single-digit underdogs this season...We'd bet on the Governors to go 8-4, 8-1
against FCS foes.)
Ø
Lafayette
@ Lehigh to decide the Patriot League title. (If Lehigh fails to hold its 13-point spread,
then Colgate wins the title.)
Ø
NC
Central at NC A&T to decide the MEAC crown; if Central upsets A&T (a 16-point favorite), then Howard University can tie them with a
win over rival Hampton.
Ø
Four
teams in the Southern Conference go up a level or three to prepare for possible
playoff bids: Wofford @ South Carolina, Western Carolina @ UNC, the Citadel @
Clemson, and Mercer @ Alabama. (If any of
them win, that’ll be a huge upset. But they’re all good FCS teams…)
Ø
And
“The Game” (that’s its name): Harvard at Yale. If Yale wins (a 7-point favorite), they take the Ivy League title all alone; if
not, Dartmouth (by 1) and Columbia (by 17) are favored to tie them for the
title.
Monday, November 6, 2017
Colossians 3, verses 1-16
1If then you have been raised with Christ, seek the things that are above, where Christ is, seated at the right hand of God. 2Set your minds on things that are above, not on things that are on earth. 3For you have died, and your life is hidden with Christ in God. 4When Christ who is your life appears, then you also will appear with him in glory.
5Put to death therefore what is earthly in you: sexual immorality, impurity, passion, evil desire, and covetousness, which is idolatry. 6On account of these the wrath of God is coming. 7In these you too once walked, when you were living in them. 8But now you must put them all away: anger, wrath, malice, slander, and obscene talk from your mouth. 9Do not lie to one another, seeing that you have put off the old self with its practices 10and have put on the new self, which is being renewed in knowledge after the image of its creator. 11Here there is not Greek and Jew, circumcised and uncircumcised, barbarian, Scythian, slave, free; but Christ is all, and in all.
12Put on then, as God’s chosen ones, holy and beloved, compassionate hearts, kindness, humility, meekness, and patience, 13bearing with one another and, if one has a complaint against another, forgiving each other; as the Lord has forgiven you, so you also must forgive. 14And above all these put on love, which binds everything together in perfect harmony. 15And let the peace of Christ rule in your hearts, to which indeed you were called in one body. And be thankful. 16Let the word of Christ dwell in you richly, teaching and admonishing one another in all wisdom, singing psalms and hymns and spiritual songs, with thankfulness in your hearts to God. 17And whatever you do, in word or deed, do everything in the name of the Lord Jesus, giving thanks to God the Father through him.
A look at the FCS playoff picture
We spend a majority of our time
looking at what’s called the “FBS”, or the “Bowl Subdivision”, of American
college football. The “big boys”. The big
money. The four-team playoff through the already-existing bowl game
system for those huge money-making programs.
But the other half of Division 1
football in the US is nearing its playoffs as well: a 24-team bracket that
gives it the “FCS” title – “Championship Subdivision”. In fact, it’s the only
championship that the NCAA, the governing body of college athletics in the US,
officially recognizes. So with two weeks to go in the regular season, let’s
take a look at where those 13 conferences sit.
Southland:
Central Arkansas has two pretty easy games left to go 9-0 in conference and
secure the automatic bid, and their 10-1 record will seed them in the top
eight, allowing them a free pass into the second round. Sam Houston State
is also likely to end at 10-1, with a loss to CAU, and I can see them earning a
seed as well. McNeese State, in Louisiana, has two challenging games
left to go 9-2, but should make the tournament even at 8-3. I’d love to see Nicholls
State make the cut, after years of hardship on the field, but they’ll have
to win two tough games to go 9-2 and have a chance.
Southern:
Wofford has lowly VMI left to beat to go 7-1 in conference and win
any potential tiebreaker with Furman, which they beat 24-23 on the first
day of the season. Both teams should qualify, and Wofford might get a seed as
well. Western Carolina looks likely to earn a spot, if they beat 4-5
Mercer and make a decent showing at Power Five North Carolina next week, but it’s
going to be tough for Samford to do the same without upsetting Furman
next week.
Pioneer:
The lowly Pioneer League has eleven teams who essentially couldn’t cut it
with the other conferences and formed their own, spanning the country. San
Diego is the class this year, and can finish 8-0 in conference if they hold
their 20+ point spread against Davidson this week and Marist next. No other
team will be invited from the PFL except its champion.
Patriot:
Likewise, only the champion of the Patriot League is likely to get it. A
cousin of the Ivy League with similar quality schools, this season will come
down to the traditional Lehigh/Lafayette game in week 12. If Lehigh
wins, they own the title, even if Colgate also goes 5-1 (Lehigh defeated
them four weeks ago). Lafayette can also claim the title by beating both
Colgate this week and Lehigh the next.
Ohio
Valley: Jacksonville State is the class of this league and a
definite top eight seed. The winner of next week’s clash between Eastern
Illinois and upstart Austin Peay, a surprising 6-1 in conference,
will claim second place and have a good shot at a playoff spot.
Northeast:
This one’s easy: the winner of this Saturday’s game between Central
Connecticut and Duquesne will be league champion and probably the
one playoff invitee. Defending champion Duquesne is favored in our ELO-FF
rating system by 12 points. There are rarely two candidates from this league,
but maybe the loser has a chance as
well. Maybe.
Missouri
Valley: The cream of the crop league comes from the northern Midwest
portion of the nation. Five-time national champ North Dakota State lost
its first game of the year Saturday at South Dakota State, but still has
a game lead in this fiercest of all Division 1 conferences:
North
Dakota State (5-1, 8-1) still plays South Dakota and at Illinois State.
South
Dakota State (4-2, 7-2) still plays Illinois State and at South Dakota.
Illinois
State (4-2, 6-3) still plays at South Dakota State and North Dakota State.
South
Dakota (4-2, 7-2) still plays at North Dakota State and South Dakota State.
All four of those teams should make
the 24-team tournament, no matter which
one wins the conference. (I’m still betting on NDSU.) It’s also conceivable
that Western Illinois (3-3 and 6-3) could be invited, with two wins
against easier opposition to finish the season; Northern Iowa could go
7-4 with two more wins and get an invite; and even at 4-5 right now, reigning
national finalist Youngstown State might get an invitation to return if
they win twice more and get to 6-5 in the toughest of leagues.
Colonial:
Probably the second or third toughest league in the FCS, especially when the
national champion James Madison Dukes are rampaging through it at 6-0
and 9-0 overall. They play Richmond this week and Elon next week, a
possible title game as Elon is a surprising 6-0 and 8-1 this year themselves.
Both teams should go to the tournament, as should 7-2 Stony Brook. The
other feasible candidate would be New Hampshire, especially if they can
beat Elon at home this weekend.
Big
South: Usually only the winner of the Big South gets invited to the Big
Dance, but there are two strong candidates who meet in the season finale next
week: Monmouth at Kennesaw State, two surprising teams who sit unbeaten
in the Big South and 8-1 overall. If they win this week, it might be hard to
turn down the loser of a close game between 4-0/9-1 teams.
Big
Sky: Another premier league in the FCS, its leaders are doing their
usual cannibalization routine, knocking each other off rather than having one
dominant team to send to the top seeds. Nevertheless, it looks like Weber
State should go 7-1 in conference with two more wins, as will the winner of
next week’s Northern Arizona at Southern Utah donnybrook. Those three
teams look like the most likely to advance to the national bracket. Depending
on how the strength of the league is evaluated by the NCAA this year, Montana
might have the record at 8-3 with a victory over strong rival Montana State
next week to get in as well.
The Ivy League doesn’t send its champion to any post-season
competition (in the name of the “purity of the sport”), but Yale now has a
one-game lead over four others (Columbia, Harvard, Dartmouth and Cornell) and
could win the title outright with two difficult wins over Princeton and
Harvard.
Likewise, the Metro East (MEAC) and the Southwestern (SWAC), which are made up of what are called “historically
black colleges”, send their champions to the Celebration Bowl against each other.
(That looks very likely to be North
Carolina A& T, 9-0 and about to win the MEAC, against Grambling
State, the class of the SWAC. Don’t ask why it’s “Southwestern” when it’s
schools located around Alabama.) However, the MEAC is willing to let any non-champion
go to the playoffs, and North Carolina Central looks like they may end
up being a 9-2 candidate to do just that this year!
*SO, what will that make the playoff
bracket most likely look like?*
Our
guesses for the top seeds 1-8:
James Madison (Colonial), North Dakota
State (MVC), the winner of the South
Dakota/SDSU matchup (MVC),
Jacksonville State (OVC), Central Arkansas (Southland), Weber State (Big Sky),
Sam Houston State (Southland), and Wofford
(Southern).
Our guesses for teams 9-24, in no
particular order…
Furman
and Western Carolina (Southern)
McNeese
State (Southland)
Elon
and Stony Brook (Colonial)
South
Dakota/SDSU loser, Illinois State, and Western Illinois (Missouri Valley)
Southern
Utah and Northern Arizona (Big Sky)
San
Diego (Pioneer)
Lehigh
(or Lafayette or Colgate) – (Patriot)
North
Carolina Central (MEAC)
Central
Connecticut / Duquesne winner (NEC)
Monmouth
/ Kennesaw State winner (Big South)
Austin
Peay / Eastern Illinois winner (OVC)
We’ll check back in two weeks and
see how it turns out! Next week, we’ll take a similar look at the FBS
conferences: who’s likely to make the title games, who’s going to reach bowl
eligibility, and what the New Year’s Six Bowl teams and the Playoff Four look
likely to be.
Saturday, November 4, 2017
If I had the faith of a mustard seed....
I never completely understood that analogy of the Lord's.
“If you had faith like a grain of mustard seed, you could say to this mulberry tree, ‘Be uprooted and planted in the sea,’ and it would obey you." (Luke 17:6)
Maybe that's because I haven't spent any time around mustard seeds. I believe that it's supposed to be an extremely small seed, which grows into an extremely large plant, one birds in the Middle East mistake for trees. So, I think the point He is making is that all we need is a very small amount of faith to do very big things.
I'm struggling with my faith right now. Not my belief, mind you. And not even all of my faith, I suppose.
“If you had faith like a grain of mustard seed, you could say to this mulberry tree, ‘Be uprooted and planted in the sea,’ and it would obey you." (Luke 17:6)
Maybe that's because I haven't spent any time around mustard seeds. I believe that it's supposed to be an extremely small seed, which grows into an extremely large plant, one birds in the Middle East mistake for trees. So, I think the point He is making is that all we need is a very small amount of faith to do very big things.
I'm struggling with my faith right now. Not my belief, mind you. And not even all of my faith, I suppose.
- I have no doubt in the Lord, in His goodness, in His grace, in the propitiation and resurrection of our Lord Jesus Christ.
- I have no doubt in what He has already done for me; I spoke last posting about how the God of the Universe has always made sure that I can make it from one paycheck to the next, even when I didn't see how that could be accomplished (even using the classic mystery check in the mailbox at just the right time a couple of times).
- I have no doubt that He has a plan for me, and that everything I'm going through right now - the severe pain and fatigue from my disease, the probable disability retirement on the horizon, the difficulty with an upcoming marriage to my ladyfriend - has a purpose and portion in that plan.
What I find lacking in my faith right now, for whatever reason, is the will to push forward through the pain He is allowing me to go through. I can deal with having to work with my children to accept my fiance-to-be as a step-mother, and the changes in our lives that implies. I can deal with the change in job status, even the obvious income gap that will be coming from retiring so young (I've yet to hit 55). And as hard as the control freak in me is fighting it, I think I can even deal with the Lord's annoying habit of only revealing Step One of His Plan, instead of providing something more concrete than quit your job to work for Me, and I'll tell you the rest when you've obeyed Me that much first. I get it. I'm no better than all the prophets and saints You've done that with in Scripture.
But the thing I can't get past is the constant pain and exhaustion.
I spent Wednesday night screaming in pain. I took more medicine overnight and into Thursday morning and afternoon than I've taken anywhere outside the hospital. And I have enough medicine in my possession most times to make it all go away if I wanted to. Without the mess of a firearm, without the drama of most other forms of euthanasia. (Although jumping off the 400-foot high bridge near here without a parachute has an appeal, if I had to pick a way to go.)
Why haven't I? Because I do have faith in the Lord.
I just worry that I don't have enough faith.
So, I'm praying for more faith. I'm using what faith I have to get more faith. If that doesn't work....
Well, that'll work. I have faith it will.
Wednesday, November 1, 2017
Confessional
Forgive me, Father, for I have sinned.
Your sins will be absolved, son.
It has been two weeks since my last blog post...
That isn't true, my son. You posted about the college football playoffs just last night.
I mean about ministry type material, Father. Act II posts.
Ah. I see. And why would that be?
(sigh) It's a complicated combination of reasons, Father. I mean, yes, I have posted about college football since the last post I did, the ones about how I hated my job. So that's one excuse. Another excuse is the ramification of those posts: since my last post, I made a call to the state retirement people and had them send me the information about retiring from disability. The major issue will be that I'm not yet 55 years old, which is where their "scale" starts, so I don't have any real idea if retiring this year is financially feasible or not. The other problem, which is where I'm working right now, is that I'm going to have to stop teaching in order for them to evaluate whether I should stop teaching or not. Which seems patently absurd to me - don't you have to see me trying to teach to determine if that's still possible or not? - but I don't make the rules. It's not unlike being a Christian: we may not like all the rules He makes, but we're bound by our faith to follow His rules regardless.
That is true. Alright, please continue, my son.
So, that's occupied a great deal of my mental energy and some of my actual time. To finish the thought, in order to prove my frailty, the gentlemen from the state suggested I go back to Social Security and apply for disability through them again first. (I tried that a few years ago, but I was much healthier then.) If they approved my disability, that would go a long way towards convincing the state's evaluation proctor (a company called "MMRO", which sounds like "tomorrow" to me, which seems prophetic) that my disability was genuine enough to verify on their end as well.
But I don't understand why you're concerned about proving this. From what you've said before, you're barely doing anything in the classroom now - your assistant does all the legwork and most of the teaching - and you still can't make it through most of the days.
That's true. But my condition is so rare that most doctors haven't even heard of it - the fellow with the state sure hadn't; he wanted as many details as I could share, out of sheer curiosity! - so I'm worried that combined with the lack of a physical "display" of damage (a still photo of me looks normal, not "disabled"), an evaluative doctor examining me for the first time wouldn't see me as "disabled" in any way.
Are you serious? All he or she would have to do is take a look at your list of medications. Didn't you say once that your late wife died in part because the morphine was too much for her system to handle?
Yes.
How much did she have in total before you two saw what it was doing to her and cut it off?
Um, two 30 mg pills. There was still 26 mg in here system at the autopsy, six days later.
And you take how much yourself?
Um... two hundred mg per day. Plus 60 mg oxycodone, plus 2400 mg of gabapentin. The venlafexine's supposed to help with pain a little bit, too.
Don't you think that's sufficient evidence in and of itself?
No, because I've taken most of that for several years, and I wasn't applying for disability retirement then. If the condition's being held in check, I don't need to retire! It's only now that the fatigue is overwhelming me during the school day that I feel the need to stop cheating the school system and give in to what my health is actually telling me.
(Pause)
That's not all of it, is it?
(Pause)
No. No, like I wrote the other day - well, the other week - the job itself is making me not want to fight the pain and fatigue any more, too. I was much more willing to fight those when I felt like I was doing something useful, teaching students in the alternative school who wanted to learn something, perhaps needing some kind of different instruction than they were getting in the mainstream classroom. But now... now we're just a glorified probation office. Have I told you that out of the 22 students we had last month, 15 of them had parole officers? That means I had at least 2/3 of my class on probation of some sort, plus another one or two who were waiting for sentencing. There were and are only a handful of actual "alternative" education students there, and I do almost NO teaching any more because these kids don't generally WANT to learn. They're only here because the court says they HAVE to be.
Ah.
That's not what I want to do with the remaining strength in my life. I've been reduced to being an administrator - the thing I hate doing more than anything else in the school system. Throughout my career, I've thanked every good admin I've ever had because I appreciated that there were people who were willing to take on those thankless jobs that included all the worst parts of teaching (paperwork, discipline, long hours) and excluded all the best (working with students!). And that's what I'm stuck with now - most of my day is spent suspending students and filling out the requisite paperwork that goes with those suspensions, for example. I mean, it needs to be done, but when it's using up my very limited reserve of strength? I can't believe that's how God wants me to use these last years.
That makes sense.
And in fact once I started mentally down this road, He's been encouraging me to walk this path, reminding me that we're in the last year or so of Christians on the earth. The Rapture is coming very soon, and there are FAR better ways for me to spend my limited time and strength.
Like what, would you say?
(Pause)
That's the problem, of course. God never lays the entire plan out for us ahead of time, does He?
No, He only provides us with Step One. The rest of the plan is oft-times too frightening to absorb all at once. Plus, He wants to make sure you'll obey before He casts you off into the deep. So, what do you believe "Step One" is?
Step One is to retire from my job teaching in the schools. Perhaps the retirement money plus SSI is sufficient to make it through the next year - and I have to remember, that's all I have to survive! - or perhaps I can pick up some extra income from teaching on line, like with the IDLA (Idaho Digital Learning Academy). God has always provided for me whenever a shortfall arose, so I'm really not worried about the money part of this.
Really? I don't believe you, my son. Lying is a sin, you know.
I know, Father, but it's the truth. I may not be completely trusting in the Lord, but I've seen too much evidence to doubt what He says in Matthew 6, about dressing the sparrows and the flowers, so how much more will he care for us. I've gotten too many random checks in the mail on a month where I didn't know how I'd make ends meet not to believe.
No, what I'm fearful of is not understanding what the rest of "Step One" is. I don't know what He wants me to do once I've retired! How am I supposed to serve Him?
How? Well, what are your most prominent spiritual gifts, my son?
The obvious one would be writing, like I've been doing through this blog. The other gift I have, of course, is teaching, and I've been doing that in the school systems for 34 years now.
Most of your writing is also teaching, you realize...
I know. And that's my assumption, that I'll continue to do that. But if He's going to such drastic measures now, is He arranging this solely so that I can simply do what I've been doing otherwise? That seems...
You don't need to know the rest yet, my son. Just get through Step One first. Keep doing the rest of what you're doing until He opens the door for you to move forward in the direction He wants you to go.
And trust Him, son. Trust God to guide you where you need to go for His sake. Listen, quietly, as much as you can. So far, you've done what has been asked of you - keep that up. Move forward with this retirement, allow your schedule to be freed up so that whatever He has planned for you in the year to come, you will be available to do it to the best of your remaining strength and ability.
May God bless you and protect you, and guide you moving forward, my son.
Thank you, Father.
Your sins will be absolved, son.
It has been two weeks since my last blog post...
That isn't true, my son. You posted about the college football playoffs just last night.
I mean about ministry type material, Father. Act II posts.
Ah. I see. And why would that be?
(sigh) It's a complicated combination of reasons, Father. I mean, yes, I have posted about college football since the last post I did, the ones about how I hated my job. So that's one excuse. Another excuse is the ramification of those posts: since my last post, I made a call to the state retirement people and had them send me the information about retiring from disability. The major issue will be that I'm not yet 55 years old, which is where their "scale" starts, so I don't have any real idea if retiring this year is financially feasible or not. The other problem, which is where I'm working right now, is that I'm going to have to stop teaching in order for them to evaluate whether I should stop teaching or not. Which seems patently absurd to me - don't you have to see me trying to teach to determine if that's still possible or not? - but I don't make the rules. It's not unlike being a Christian: we may not like all the rules He makes, but we're bound by our faith to follow His rules regardless.
That is true. Alright, please continue, my son.
So, that's occupied a great deal of my mental energy and some of my actual time. To finish the thought, in order to prove my frailty, the gentlemen from the state suggested I go back to Social Security and apply for disability through them again first. (I tried that a few years ago, but I was much healthier then.) If they approved my disability, that would go a long way towards convincing the state's evaluation proctor (a company called "MMRO", which sounds like "tomorrow" to me, which seems prophetic) that my disability was genuine enough to verify on their end as well.
But I don't understand why you're concerned about proving this. From what you've said before, you're barely doing anything in the classroom now - your assistant does all the legwork and most of the teaching - and you still can't make it through most of the days.
That's true. But my condition is so rare that most doctors haven't even heard of it - the fellow with the state sure hadn't; he wanted as many details as I could share, out of sheer curiosity! - so I'm worried that combined with the lack of a physical "display" of damage (a still photo of me looks normal, not "disabled"), an evaluative doctor examining me for the first time wouldn't see me as "disabled" in any way.
Are you serious? All he or she would have to do is take a look at your list of medications. Didn't you say once that your late wife died in part because the morphine was too much for her system to handle?
Yes.
How much did she have in total before you two saw what it was doing to her and cut it off?
Um, two 30 mg pills. There was still 26 mg in here system at the autopsy, six days later.
And you take how much yourself?
Um... two hundred mg per day. Plus 60 mg oxycodone, plus 2400 mg of gabapentin. The venlafexine's supposed to help with pain a little bit, too.
Don't you think that's sufficient evidence in and of itself?
No, because I've taken most of that for several years, and I wasn't applying for disability retirement then. If the condition's being held in check, I don't need to retire! It's only now that the fatigue is overwhelming me during the school day that I feel the need to stop cheating the school system and give in to what my health is actually telling me.
(Pause)
That's not all of it, is it?
(Pause)
No. No, like I wrote the other day - well, the other week - the job itself is making me not want to fight the pain and fatigue any more, too. I was much more willing to fight those when I felt like I was doing something useful, teaching students in the alternative school who wanted to learn something, perhaps needing some kind of different instruction than they were getting in the mainstream classroom. But now... now we're just a glorified probation office. Have I told you that out of the 22 students we had last month, 15 of them had parole officers? That means I had at least 2/3 of my class on probation of some sort, plus another one or two who were waiting for sentencing. There were and are only a handful of actual "alternative" education students there, and I do almost NO teaching any more because these kids don't generally WANT to learn. They're only here because the court says they HAVE to be.
Ah.
That's not what I want to do with the remaining strength in my life. I've been reduced to being an administrator - the thing I hate doing more than anything else in the school system. Throughout my career, I've thanked every good admin I've ever had because I appreciated that there were people who were willing to take on those thankless jobs that included all the worst parts of teaching (paperwork, discipline, long hours) and excluded all the best (working with students!). And that's what I'm stuck with now - most of my day is spent suspending students and filling out the requisite paperwork that goes with those suspensions, for example. I mean, it needs to be done, but when it's using up my very limited reserve of strength? I can't believe that's how God wants me to use these last years.
That makes sense.
And in fact once I started mentally down this road, He's been encouraging me to walk this path, reminding me that we're in the last year or so of Christians on the earth. The Rapture is coming very soon, and there are FAR better ways for me to spend my limited time and strength.
Like what, would you say?
(Pause)
That's the problem, of course. God never lays the entire plan out for us ahead of time, does He?
No, He only provides us with Step One. The rest of the plan is oft-times too frightening to absorb all at once. Plus, He wants to make sure you'll obey before He casts you off into the deep. So, what do you believe "Step One" is?
Step One is to retire from my job teaching in the schools. Perhaps the retirement money plus SSI is sufficient to make it through the next year - and I have to remember, that's all I have to survive! - or perhaps I can pick up some extra income from teaching on line, like with the IDLA (Idaho Digital Learning Academy). God has always provided for me whenever a shortfall arose, so I'm really not worried about the money part of this.
Really? I don't believe you, my son. Lying is a sin, you know.
I know, Father, but it's the truth. I may not be completely trusting in the Lord, but I've seen too much evidence to doubt what He says in Matthew 6, about dressing the sparrows and the flowers, so how much more will he care for us. I've gotten too many random checks in the mail on a month where I didn't know how I'd make ends meet not to believe.
No, what I'm fearful of is not understanding what the rest of "Step One" is. I don't know what He wants me to do once I've retired! How am I supposed to serve Him?
How? Well, what are your most prominent spiritual gifts, my son?
The obvious one would be writing, like I've been doing through this blog. The other gift I have, of course, is teaching, and I've been doing that in the school systems for 34 years now.
Most of your writing is also teaching, you realize...
I know. And that's my assumption, that I'll continue to do that. But if He's going to such drastic measures now, is He arranging this solely so that I can simply do what I've been doing otherwise? That seems...
You don't need to know the rest yet, my son. Just get through Step One first. Keep doing the rest of what you're doing until He opens the door for you to move forward in the direction He wants you to go.
And trust Him, son. Trust God to guide you where you need to go for His sake. Listen, quietly, as much as you can. So far, you've done what has been asked of you - keep that up. Move forward with this retirement, allow your schedule to be freed up so that whatever He has planned for you in the year to come, you will be available to do it to the best of your remaining strength and ability.
May God bless you and protect you, and guide you moving forward, my son.
Thank you, Father.
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