We come to Christ with our own views in place.

Consider the conversations that Jesus of Nazareth has with the various people in "power" around Him after He has been taken prisoner (with His Permission, mind you - "Do you think that I cannot appeal to my Father, and he will at once send me more than twelve legions of angels?" [Mt 26:53]). Jesus never completely opens up, even in the last hours of His Life on earth. Look at His choice of words when addressed by the Pharisees in Luke chapter 22 and Pontius Pilate in chapter 23.

So they all said, “Are you the Son of God, then?” And he said to them, “You say that I am.” Then they said, “What further testimony do we need? We have heard it ourselves from his own lips.” [Luke 22:70-71]

And they began to accuse him, saying, “We found this man misleading our nation and forbidding us to give tribute to Caesar, and saying that he himself is Christ, a king.” And Pilate asked him, “Are you the King of the Jews?” And he answered him, “You have said so.” Then Pilate said to the chief priests and the crowds, “I find no guilt in this man.” [Luke 23:2-4]

With approximately the same non-denial testimony ("I refuse to testify against Myself, but you have your own testimony to go on."), the Pharisees and Pilate come to completely opposite conclusions.

Why?

Is there a difference in how Jesus presented Himself? No. The difference comes from the opening positions of the men deciding the answer. The Pharisees are already looking for reasons to consider Jesus a blaspheming heretic, and are desperate to refute the possibility that He might actually be Who He says He is. On the other hand, Pontius Pilate has a much more objective starting point, pushed even further towards recommending Jesus' innocence by his wife's dream [see Matthew 27:19] and his general disdain of the Jewish religious leaders. When he hears "You have said so", he hears it as a denial, not a confirmation. So (ironically) it confirms his own belief that this Man is not whatever the Pharisees claim He is, and declares Him innocent.

(However, since that doesn't fit in with God's Plan, God continues to take a stick to the hornets' nest of Pharisees and aides de camp, upsetting the apple cart until Pilate has to allow Jesus' crucifixion.)

We do the same thing, we human beings of the 21 century. 

When the Gospel is presented to us, one of two things will happen. Either we will truly listen and be accepting of what is being shared, and the Holy Spirit begins (or completes, or is somewhere in the midst of) His Holy Work on your heart and soul and mind, leading you on the journey to the start line of your salvation; OR we shut down, hardening our heart and soul and mind to the message of the Gospel. Rather than trying to accept the free gift of salvation, we search for reasons to shoot it down. And since "the Word of the Cross is folly to those who are perishing," ("but to us who are being saved it is the Power of God" - 1st Corinth 1:18), we will find PLENTY of reasons to shoot it down in our own minds, legitimate or not. 

Does that mean we stop trying to spread the Gospel of Jesus Christ? "By No Means!", as Paul would say to the Romans. It frees us from pressure! 

When a person is ready to accept Christ as their Lord and Savior, all we have to do is make the move. We don't have to be eloquent, we don't have to have the background of a preacher, although being a Bible-reader will help you with the basic questions; we don't have to be perfect at all. We're just the ones who "pull the trigger". The Holy Spirit has already done all the prep work, and we're going to receive the reward from Him of being the person there to guide the new Believer "over the line" into Christianity! 

And if the person is NOT ready to accept Christ? There is nothing you're going to be able to say or do that will bring them to Jesus that day. It is important to present the Gospel anyway - perhaps the Holy Spirit is using you as one of many straws on this particular camel's back. Or, maybe it's a waste of time. You don't know. So you share it anyway. There's no harm done.

Hey, at least you'll get some practice in!

College Football Forecast, part three

The final part of this preview (and the only part not published in The Roar) looks at what the 124 teams in the FCS are likely to do in the coming months. Understand, please, that there's not nearly as much national coverage of these teams as there are for the FBS teams, so a larger part of the rating you'll see for each team is based on the results from last year - which means that teams benefiting from great recruiting classes, advances in spring ball, problems that cropped up with injuries or transfers or lost assistant coaches won't necessarily be properly accounted for. But we've done the best we can!

Conference by conference, here are our starting ratings and the implied final conference and overall records for each team (* means champion or co-champion; + are teams we expect in the 24-team FCS finals field):

Big Sky Conference
Montana (rating of 40)  7-1, 9-2 *+
Cal Poly SLO (40)   7-1, 8-3 *+
Weber State (39)   7-2, 8-3 +
Eastern Washington (38)    6-2, 7-4
North Dakota (39)  6-2, 8-3
Northern Arizona (42)   5-3, 7-4
Southern Utah (44)   5-3, 6-5
Northern Colorado (46)   4-4, 5-6
Montana State (46)    2-6, 4-7
Portland State (48)    2-7, 2-9
Sacramento State (54)   2-7, 2-9
UC Davis (51)   1-8, 1-10
Idaho State (56)   0-8, 1-10

Big South Conference
Charleston Southern (rating of 38)   5-0, 10-1 (ineligible)
Liberty (40)   4-1, 8-3 *+
Kennesaw State (43)  3-2, 7-4
Monmouth (51)   2-3, 3-8
Gardner-Webb (48)   1-4, 4-7
Presbyterian (53)  0-5, 3-8

Colonial Athletic Association
James Madison (rating of 34)  8-0, 11-0 *+
Villanova (40)  7-1, 9-2+
Richmond (38)   6-2. 9-2+
New Hampshire (41)   5-3, 6-5
Albany (44)   4-4, 6-5
William & Mary (45)   4-4, 6-5
Stony Brook (47)   4-4, 6-5
Maine (47)   4-4, 6-5
Towson (49)   3-5, 4-7
Delaware (47)   2-6, 4-7
Rhode Island (52)   1-7, 1-10
Elon (54)   0-8, 1-10

Ivy League
Penn (rating 46)   6-1, 8-2*
Harvard (47)    6-1, 9-1*
Dartmouth (49)   5-2, 8-2
Princeton (46)   4-3, 7-3
Yale (49)   4-3, 5-5
Cornell (52)   2-5, 3-7
Columbia (54)   1-6, 4-6
Brown (52)   0-7, 3-7

MEAC
North Carolina A&T (rating of 46)   7-1, 10-1*
North Carolina Central (47)   7-1, 9-2*
   (champion goes to Celebration Bowl; second place to FCS playoffs. We think A&T def. Central...)
South Carolina State (50)   6-2, 7-4
Bethune-Cookman (53)   5-3, 5-6
Hampton (53)   4-4, 6-5
Norfolk State (55)   3-5, 4-7
Morgan State (57)   3-5, 3-8
Howard (58)   3-5, 3-8
Delaware State (59)   3-5, 3-8
Savannah State (58)   2-6, 2-9
Florida A&M (59)   1-7, 2-9

Missouri Valley Conference
North Dakota State (rating of 32)   8-0, 11-0*+
Youngstown State (37)   7-1, 9-2 +
South Dakota State (36)   6-2, 9-2 +
Illinois State (39)   5-3, 7-4 +
Northern Iowa (41)   5-3, 6-5
Western Illinois (44)  3-5, 3-8
South Dakota (45)   2-6, 4-7
Indiana State (48)   2-6, 2-9
Southern Illinois (46)  1-7, 3-8
Missouri State (50)   1-7, 2-9

Northeast Conference
Duquesne (rating of 50)   6-0, 8-3* +
St. Francis PA (53)   4-2, 5-6
Wagner (55)  3-3, 4-7
CCSU (57)  3-3, 4-7
Sacred Heart (57)   2-4, 4-7
Robert Morris (59)  2-4, 3-8
Bryant (59)   1-5, 3-8

Ohio Valley Conference
Jacksonville State (rating of 36)  8-0, 10-1 *+
UT-Martin (44)  6-2, 7-4
Eastern Illinois (45)   5-3, 5-6
Tennessee State (44)  4-3, 7-4
Tennessee Tech (46)  4-4, 5-6
Murray State (49)  3-5, 4-7
SE Missouri State (52)  3-5, 3-8
Eastern Kentucky (49)  2-6, 5-6
Austin Peay (59)  0-8, 1-10

Patriot League
Fordham (rating of 45)   5-1, 8-3*+
Lehigh (44)   4-2, 8-3 +
Colgate (47)   4-2, 7-4
Holy Cross (50)   3-3, 4-7
Lafayette (53)   3-3, 4-7
Bucknell (51)   2-4, 5-6
Georgetown (54)   1-5, 2-9

Pioneer League
Dayton (rating of 49)  8-0, 11-0*+
San Diego (46) 7-1, 9-2
Marist (55)   6-2, 6-5
Campbell (57)   5-3, 7-4
Drake (53)   4-4, 6-5
Jacksonville (54)   4-4, 5-6
Morehead State (58)   3-5, 4-7
Stetson (60)   3-5, 3-8
Butler (59)   2-6, 3-8
Valparaiso (60)   2-6, 2-9
Davidson (62)   0-8, 2-9

Southern Conference
Wofford (rating of 37)   7-1, 9-2*+
The Citadel (38)   6-2, 8-3 +
Chattanooga (39)   6-2, 7-4 +
Samford (40)   5-3, 7-4 +
Mercer (44)   4-4, 4-7
Furman (46)   4-4, 5-6
Western Carolina (48)   3-5, 4-7
E Tennessee State (51)   2-6, 4-7
VMI (52)   0-8, 2-9

Southland Conference
Central Arkansas (rating of 40)   9-0, 10-1*+
Sam Houston State (36)   8-1, 9-1 +
Stephen F Austin (45)  7-2, 8-3 +
McNeese State (42)   6-3, 8-3
Nicholls State (44)   6-3, 7-4
SE Louisiana (45)   6-3, 7-4
Incarnate Word (47)   2-6, 4-7
Houston Baptist (49)   2-7, 3-8
Abilene Christian (49)   2-7, 2-9
Northwestern State (52)   1-8, 1-10
Lamar (50)   0-9, 1-10

Southwest Athletic Conference East
Alabama A&M (rating of 55)  5-3, 6-5
Alcorn State (53)   3-5, 4-7
Jackson State (57)   3-5, 4-7
Mississippi Valley State (60)  2-5, 3-8
Alabama State (56)   1-6, 2-8

Southwest Athletic Conference West
Grambling State (43)   8-0, 9-2*
Southern (47)   6-1, 8-3
Prairie View A&M (50)  4-3, 5-6
Texas Southern (55)  4-4, 4-7
Arkansas-Pine Bluff (61)   1-6, 3-8

So, our top 20 teams coming into the season are North Dakota State (32),  defending champ James Madison (34), Jacksonville State, Sam Houston State, and South Dakota State (36), Wofford and Youngstown State (37), Eastern Washington, Charleston Southern, Richmond, and The Citadel (38), Weber State, North Dakota, Chattanooga, and Illinois State (39), Montana, Cal Poly SLO, Liberty, Villanova, and Central Arkansas (40).

College Football forecast, part two

Yesterday, I posted the expected final records for every one of the 68 teams in the Power Five conferences...when actually, there are only 65 such teams.

Three of the four independents (BYU, U-Mass, and Army-West Point) are not considered "Power Five" teams (Notre Dame is). But I happen to keep them all together in my record keeping - apologies if doing so confused you.

So today, let's look at the other 62 teams - the remaining members of the 65 "Group Of Five" conferences. As with yesterday, we went through every scheduled game and used the ELO-Following Football handicap system to predict the likely outcome. That doesn't mean there won't be upsets - you can virtually guarantee that any predictions will be at least slightly wrong! Each team is listed with its predicted conference record and then its overall record:

As a refresher, we had BYU at 10-3, Army-West Point at 7-5, and U-Mass at 1-11.

American Athletic Conference

AAC East Division)                                            AAC West Division) 

South Florida      (8-0)    12-0                                   Tulsa       (7-1)     9-3

Temple     (6-2)      9-3                                          Houston       (5-3)     8-4

Central Florida      (5-3)     7-5                             Memphis    (5-3)       7-5

East Carolina         (3-5)     3-9                                Navy      (4-4)        7-5

Cincinnati        (2-6)     4-8                                      SMU        (2-6)      5-7

Connecticut       (0-8)     1-11                                 Tulane      (1-7)       4-8

AAC title game: USF def. Tulsa by 8 points.  

Conference USA

C-USA  East Division)                                        C-USA West Division)  

Western Kentucky             (8-0)   11-1                  Louisiana Tech (7-1)*   9-3

Middle Tennessee            (7-1)     8-4               UT-San Antonio   (7-1)     9-3

Marshall                           (5-3)      7-5                 Southern Miss    (5-3)    7-5

Old Dominion  (5-3)      7-5                                       Rice      (3-5)         3-9

Charlotte      (2-6)      4-8                                    North Texas     (2-6)       4-8

Florida Atlantic     (2-6)        3-9                         UT-El Paso     (2-6)      2-10

Florida International    (1-7)    2-10         Alabama-Birmingham   (0-8)   1-11

                                                    *Louisiana Tech def. UTSA wk 13.

C-USA title game: WESTERN KENTUCKY def. Louisiana Tech by 2 points. 

    (LaTech and MTSU will only lose in conference to WKU; WKU's only loss will be to Vanderbilt.)

Mid-American Conference

MAC East Division)                                        MAC West Division)  

Ohio                     (6-2)      9-3                         Toledo       (8-0)     11-1

Miami-OH            (5-3)      7-5         Western Michigan      (7-1)     9-3

Akron                   (4-4)      5-7              Northern Illinois     (5-3)    6-6

Buffalo                 (2-6)      4-8           Eastern Michigan     (4-4)     4-8

Kent State             (2-6)      3-9            Central Michigan     (3-5)     4-8

Bowling Green     (1-7)       1-11                   Ball State       (2-6)     4-8

MAC title game: TOLEDO def. Ohio by 7 points.

Mountain West Conference

MW Mountain Division)                                      MW West Division)

Boise State            (7-1)      9-3             San Diego State     (8-0)     10-2

Colorado State       (6-2)      8-4                             Nevada     (4-4)    5-7

Wyoming              (6-2)      8-4                             Hawaii      (3-5)    5-7
Air Force              (4-4)      6-6                  San Jose State     (2-6)    2-11
New Mexico           (4-4)      6-6                            UNLV     (1-7)    2-10
Utah State              (2-6)      3-9                    Fresno State     (1-7)   2-10

Mountain West title game: BOISE STATE def. San Diego State by 2 points. 

Sun Belt Conference

Appalachian State          (8-0)     11-1

Arkansas State               (8-0)       9-3

Troy                                (7-1)       9-3

Idaho                              (5-3)       8-4

UL- Monroe                   (5-3)       5-7

Georgia Southern           (4-4)       6-6

UL-Lafayette                 (4-4)       5-7

South Alabama              (4-4)       5-7

Coastal Carolina            (2-6)       5-7

Georgia State                 (2-6)       3-9

Texas State                     (1-7)     2-10

New Mexico State         (0-8)     1-11

Sun Belt title game is non-existent. Not only do App State and Ark St never meet in the regular season (for several years in a row now), but there's no title game to decide the champion on the field, either. Arkansas State and Appalachian State will be co-champions, again. (Could be worse. Before Week 14, Troy University was 7-0 along with the two others - Arkansas State plays Troy on December 2nd, to eliminate one of the unbeatens.) Were they to play on a neutral field, the ELO-Following Football computer has Appalachan State as a 4-point favorite.

Random thoughts...

  If Idaho is good enough to place fourth in the Sun Belt (5-3 in conference, eight wins and bowl eligibility in their forecast), it's tragic that the conference will be kicking them out because of the distance issues the teams face travelling to Las Cruces, New Mexico or Moscow, Idaho.

  Being a Boise State fan, it's hard to see them projected for three losses (yeah, our standards are a bit high!), edged out by Wazzu (Washington State), BYU, and San Diego State - all road games. If the Broncos get the Aztecs at HOME for the final, they'll win the rematch.

  Coastal Carolina's first season in the big leagues is projected to produce five wins, better than most teams manage...

  So many conferences have one division that's FAR stronger than the other - the MW Mountain, the MAC West, the SEC West, and so forth. On the other hand, C-USA and the AAC end up fairly well balanced this season, although both have had issues in the past (the AAC West was absurdly dominant just two years ago). Moral of the story - don't place teams based on strength, because that'll change regularly.

  South Florida is forecast by virtually every prognosticator to be the Group of Five rep in the New Year's Six Bowls, the games where the big money is found. (A "regular" bowl game gives out something like a million dollars; the New Year's Six are more like twelve million.) But edging their way into the College Football Playoff is absurd.

Finally, here are some interesting games and far-too-early predictions for "Group of Five" teams this season:

Week Zero - Aug 26) South Florida looked terrible for the first quarter at San Jose State, before pulling out a 42-22 victory.

Week 1 - Sept 2) Lots of interesting games challenging Power Five teams, but Troy goes to Boise (loses), Colorado St v. Colorado (Buffaloes win), Houston over UTSA (in San Antonio - if Houston can get out of town), Temple losing close to Notre Dame, and Western Michigan (last year's 13-0 darling) having no chance at USC.

Week 2 - Sept 9) Western Kentucky should WIN at Illinois, San Diego State should lose a tight one with Arizona State, Louisiana Tech and Marshall should stay close at Mississippi State and North Carolina State, respectively; and New Mexico will win the battle of the Land of Enchantment against New Mexico State.

Week 3 - Sept 16) The big game of the C-USA season: WKU over Louisiana Tech in a shootout AT Western Kentucky (the key). Ohio gets a Power Five win over Kansas (it still counts!), but San Diego State will fall short at Stanford, UL-Lafayette loses to Texas A&M, Central Michigan gets a shot at Syracuse but misses in the end, South Florida defeats Illinois, and Northern Illinois comes close at Nebraska.

Week 4 - Sept 23) Lafayette wins the battle of Louisiana against UL-Monroe, and Appalachian State defeats Wake Forest on the road. South Florida defeats Temple to take a lead in the division it will never relinquish, and Boise State takes care of Virginia with ease. There are also, of course, another handful of games where a team like Kent State travels to a powerhouse like Louisville to get hammered by forty points or more and collect a million dollar paycheck. In some cases, it keeps the program afloat for another year. In others, it continues to demoralize the players and the program.

Week 5 - Sept 30) Temple defeats Houston, and Tulsa defeats Navy. (The changing of the guard in the AAC continues.) Miami of Ohio gets to play in front of "Touchdown Jesus" and lose to Notre Dame.

Week 6 - Oct 7) Navy defeats Air Force in the first of the three-game round robin for the Commander-In-Chief's trophy. (Both teams will beat Army, and Navy will win the trophy this season.) Boise State loses a close one at BYU. 

Week 7 - Oct 14) Boise loses twice in a row, losing at San Diego State. Louisiana-Monroe wins its third straight in conference to become a threat, while Troy, Appalachian State and Arkansas State all remain undefeated above them. Old Dominion wins a key game at Marshall. Tulsa beats Houston and Memphis defeats Navy, while UCF beats ECU in the AAC. (Acronyms. Gotta love 'em.)

Week 8 - Oct 21) Houston holds serve at home against Memphis on a Thursday night game. Boise gets its revenge on Wyoming. In Michigan, Western beats Eastern. Louisiana Tech wins at home v. Southern Mississippi. Western Kentucky wins a tough game at Old Dominion, and UL-Lafayette loses at Arkansas State. 

Week 9 - Oct 28) Marshall beats FIU, Colorado State defeats Air Force, Wyoming upends New Mexico, and Troy beats Georgia Southern to stay undefeated in the Sun Belt. The mid-week "#MACtion" games begin this week, and from Thursday, Oct 26th until Wednesday, Nov 22nd, there will be a football game on the television every evening, college or pro. Heaven or hell, depending on your bent.

Week 10 - Nov 4) South Florida beats Houston and Temple defeats Navy in a rematch of last year's title game. Ohio seals its division by winning against Miami-Ohio, and Western Michigan conquers Central Michigan to win the imaginary "Directional Michigan" trophy. Air Force flies past Army, and Wyoming defeats Colorado State, clearing the path for a Boise State division title down the road. 

Week 11 - Nov 11) WKU smashes Marshall to go 6-0 in conference; Boise State beats Colorado State in the Rams' beautiful new stadium which just opened during Week Zero. Appalachian State wins a key game at home versus Georgia Southern.

Week 12 -Nov 18) USF beats Tulsa in a preview of the AAC title game in two weeks; it's Tulsa's only loss in conference this year. Navy loses to Notre Dame again. Boston College defeats U-Conn in Fenway Park, which will be a spectacle! Air Force loses in Boise, and Nevada loses in San Diego. Western Michigan defeats Northern Illinois on a Wednesday, as we're deep into the month of solid football.

Week 13 - Nov 25) South Florida beats Central Florida and caps its perfect regular season, the only one in the Group of Five. (It still has to win the title game, however, because the rules say that the team invited into the New Year's games must be a conference champ.) Nevada defeats UNLV to win the state's battle, Toledo conquers defending champion Western Michigan to take the MAC East, and Louisiana Tech hands UT-San Antonio its only conference loss to knock it out of title contention.

Week 14 - Dec 2) Besides being title week (and our ELO-FF projections are above for those), the Sun Belt has a week of games here - the key one being Arkansas State hosting and defeating Troy, keeping the Sun Belt from a three-way tie. (Two's bad enough.) App State hosts UL-Lafayette, who should give them a good game before succumbing. Idaho will win its final regular season game as a Sun Belt member and as an FBS member, rejoining the lower-division FCS Big Sky Conference in all sports next fall. New Mexico State will be staying in the Group of Five as an independent next year, but loses its 11th game of the year at South Alabama in its Sun Belt swan song.

Week 15 - Dec 9) One game on the schedule. Army/Navy. And I hope it stays this way for the foreseeable future. This game's history alone deserves its place on the calendar. (Navy will start a new winning streak.)

College Football forecast, part one

So, with the prelude underway (and we did go five-for-five on FBS games that first weekend!), let's save you all the suspense and just tell you up front what the final records will be for each of the Power Five conferences in 2017. Using our exclusive "ELO-Following Football" handicap system, we've forecast every game of the season and come up with these results (barring unforeseen upsets, which will undoubtedly occur!) - 

Teams are listed with conference win-loss records (and overall win-loss records).

Atlantic Coast Conference

ACC Atlantic Division)                                      ACC Coastal Division)

Clemson                  8-0   (12-0)                         Miami-FL           7-1   (10-2)

Florida State            7-1   (10-2)                          Georgia Tech      6-2   (8-4)

Louisville                6-2   (10-2)                          Virginia Tech      5-3    (9-3)

No Carolina State   4-4    (7-5)                            Pitt                      5-3    (7-5)

Syracuse                  2-6   (5-7)                            No Carolina        2-6    (6-6)

Boston College        1-7   (4-8)                            Virginia              2-6    (4-8)

Wake Forest            1-7    (3-9)                           Duke                  0-8    (2-10)

ACC title game: CLEMSON def. Miami-FL by 7 points.

Big Ten Conference

B1G East Division)                                             B1G West Division)

Ohio State               9-0     (12-0)                         Wisconsin          9-0    (12-0)

Penn State              8-1     (11-1)                           Northwestern     7-2     (10-2)

Michigan                6-3      (9-3)                           Minnesota         5-4     (8-4)

Indiana                    3-6      (6-6)                          Iowa                  4-5     (7-5)

Michigan State       3-6       (5-7)                          Nebraska           4-5     (6-6)

Rutgers                   1-8      (3-9)                           Purdue               2-7     (3-9)

Maryland                1-8      (3-9)                           Illinois              1-8      (2-10)

BIG TEN title game: OHIO STATE def. Wisconsin by 6 points.

Big Twelve Conference 

Oklahoma               9-0    (11-1)

Oklahoma State      8-1    (11-1)

Kansas State           6-3     (9-3)

TCU                       6-3     (8-4)

Texas                      5-4     (7-5)

West Virginia         5-4     (7-5)

Baylor                    4-5      (7-5)

Texas Tech             2-7     (4-8)

Iowa State              1-8     (3-9)

Kansas                   0-9      (2-10)

XII title game: OKLAHOMA def. Oklahoma State by 4 points.

FBS Independents 

BYU                    10-3

Notre Dame           7-5

Army-WP              7-5

U Mass                  1-11

Pacific-12 Conference

Pac-12 North)                                                   Pac-12 South)   

Stanford                8-1*     (11-1)                       USC                     9-0       (12-0)

Washington           8-1       (11-1)                       UCLA                  5-4         (8-4)

Oregon                  6-3       (9-3)                         Utah                     5-4         (7-5)

Washington State  4-5       (7-5)                         Colorado              4-5         (7-5)

California              2-7       (3-9)                         Arizona State       1-8         (4-8)

Oregon State         1-8       (2-10)                       Arizona                1-8         (4-8)

*Stanford def. Washington in wk 11.                                                         

PAC-12 title game: USC def. Stanford by 5 points.

Southeastern Conference

SEC East Division)                                          SEC West Division)  

Florida              8-0          (10-2)                       Alabama                8-0        (12-0)

Georgia              5-3          (9-3)                         LSU                      6-2        (10-2)

Tennessee           5-3          (9-3)                         Auburn                   6-2        (9-3)

Kentucky            2-6          (5-7)                        Texas A&M           4-4        (7-5)

Vanderbilt          2-6           (5-7)                         Arkansas                3-5        (6-6)

South Carolina   2-6           (4-8)                        Mississippi State    2-6        (6-6)

Missouri             1-7           (5-7)                        Ole Miss                 2-6        (6-6)

SEC title game: ALABAMA def. Florida by 11 points.

CFP Final Four teams) Alabama, Ohio State, USC, Clemson. 
Semi-finals: Alabama def. Clemson (Sugar Bowl)
                     USC def. Ohio State (Rose Bowl)
National Championship (Atlanta): ALABAMA def. USC.


A few interesting tidbits to note: this upset-free forecast suggests that no fewer than FIVE top-tier teams will sail through their regular seasons unbeaten (with Wisconsin suffering their first loss in the Big Ten title game against their fellow 12-0 Buckeyes). If true, it will make the CFP committee's job very easy - South Florida need not apply no matter what their record, and Oklahoma's one loss to Ohio State will be the death of their hopes. (Now, having said that, I honestly believe that at MOST one team will be undefeated when December rolls around. It's just too difficult to run the gauntlet these teams run in their own divisions in places - even Alabama, whose ELO-FF handicap is three points better than ANY other team, will suffer a down day on some key Saturday in the SEC.)

Next, the Florida division title (by three games!) is possible but won't be that easy - neither will the USC gap in the Pac-12 South. (They may even lose a game or two breaking in their new QB - you can never tell with a new starting quarterback in FBS football until game time.) I was equally surprised by the Big Ten West - the Badgers might very well go undefeated, and Northwestern could go 10-2, and the Gophers might end up ahead of powerhouses Iowa and Nebraska...but all three together would be amazing! Clemson gets the Seminoles at home, and I think that will be enough for them to win; no other opponent should challenge them, even with a new QB. Arizona State will only win once in conference - but if it is indeed against the Wildcats, as forecast, they'll take it! Will 7-5 be enough to keep Brian Kelly as the Notre Dame coach? Texas is also forecast for a 7-5 season, which seems low to me. And seeing Duke join poor Kansas in the O-fer category in conference makes me sad, as I'm a HUGE David Cutliffe fan. 

Finally, here are some interesting games along the way and our too-early forecasts:
Week 1 - Sept 2) Alabama over Florida State, Virginia Tech defeating West Virginia, Tennessee over Georgia Tech (my son's favorite team), Texas def. Maryland and Michigan over Florida.
Week 2 - Sept 9) Georgia def. Notre Dame, Washington State def. Boise State, USC over Stanford (at home), Clemson over Auburn (at home), Arkansas def. TCU, BYU over Utah (in the "Holy War" game), Penn State over Pitt, Iowa def. Iowa State, and Oregon over Nebraska. We've already mentioned Ohio State def. Oklahoma. A lot of great games!
Week 3 - Sept 16) Florida State over Miami-FL, Oklahoma State def. Pitt, Wisconsin over BYU, Texas loses @ USC, Clemson wins @ Louisville, and Florida over Tennessee (again!).
Week 4 - Sept 23) Stanford over UCLA, Washington def. Colorado, North Carolina def. Duke in the Tobacco Road rivalry, and Notre Dame over Michigan State. Slow weekend.
Week 5 - Sept 30) Clemson over Virginia Tech, Wisconsin def. Northwestern @ home, Tennessee def. Georgia at home, and UCLA def. Colorado.
Week 6 - Oct 7) Stanford def. Utah, Alabama over Texas A&M, Florida def. LSU, Michigan def. Michigan State, Wisconsin over Nebraska, Penn State over Northwestern, Texas over Kansas State at home, North Carolina def. Notre Dame at home, TCU over West Virginia, and BYU over Boise State.
Week 7 - Oct 14) Miami-Florida def. Georgia Tech, Minnesota over Michigan State, Ohio State def. Nebraska, Oklahoma over Texas in the Cotton Bowl, Kansas State over TCU.
Week 8 - Oct 21) Washington State over Colorado, UCLA def. Oregon, USC def. Washington, Alabama over Tennessee, Auburn over Arkansas, Penn State over Michigan at home, Baylor def. WVU, Northwestern over Iowa.
Week 9 - Oct 28) Clemson over Georgia Tech, Miami-FL over North Carolina, Ohio State def. Penn State in the Horseshoe, Iowa over Minnesota, Texas over Baylor, and a coin flip between Florida and Georgia in the Largest Cocktail Party in the World game in Jacksonville (mine came up Gators).
Week 10 - Nov 4) Oregon loses @ Washington, Utah over UCLA, Alabama hosts and beats LSU, Auburn over Texas A&M, Northwestern over Nebraska, Ohio St def. Iowa, Michigan over Minnesota, Maryland over Rutgers in Yankee Stadium (their only conference win), and Miami-Fl over Virginia Tech.
Week 11 - Nov 11) Florida State loses at Clemson, Virginia Tech loses at Georgia Tech, Wisconsin over Iowa, Ohio St def. Michigan St, Nebraska loses at Minnesota, Miami-Fl def. Notre Dame, Oklahoma def. TCU, Washington loses at Stanford, Auburn over Georgia, Alabama wins at Mississippi State, and USC def. Colorado.
Week 12 - Nov 18) Penn State over Nebraska, Northwestern over Minnesota, Wisconsin def. Michigan, West Virginia over Texas, Ok State def. K-State, Notre Dame def. Navy, LSU over Tennessee, Texas A&M over Ole Miss, Stanford over Cal and USC over UCLA. 
Week 13 - Thanksgiving) Ohio State def. Michigan, Nebraska def. Iowa, Wisconsin over Minnesota, Oklahoma over West Virginia, TCU def. Baylor, Stanford over Notre Dame, Clemson over South Carolina, Florida State over Florida, Georgia def. Georgia Tech, North Carolina St over North Carolina, Tennessee over Vanderbilt, Mississippi State wins the Egg Bowl at home against Ole Miss, and Alabama def. Auburn in the Iron Bowl.

American Football in Sydney, Australia

(Originally written for THE ROAR, for the US Sports section previewing the Stanford/Rice American football game being played there this weekend.)

Sydney hosts two of the United States’ top universities’ American football teams today when the University of Stanford and Rice University meet at Allianz Stadium.

            The Stanford Cardinal play in the Pac-12, the strongest conference of teams on the west coast of the US, and are ranked #14 of the 130 schools playing top-division gridiron in the country. They have consistently challenged for their conference title over the last decade and been in the conversation for the national championship, although they’ve yet to make the four-team finals in its recently-adjusted format. Stanford University sits just south of San Francisco on the same peninsula in California’s Bay Area, and is not only one of the top academic schools in the United States but the consistent winner of the Capital One Cup, the award for the top-division university with the most overall success in all of its intramural sports activities across the nation.

            Rice University, near Dallas, Texas, is also one of the top academic schools in the United States.

            Unfortunately, that’s about all the two have in common.

            Rice plays in Conference-USA, a fourteen-team league spread across the Midwestern US, one of what’s referred to as the “Group Of Five” conferences (as opposed to the “Power Five”, to which Stanford’s Pac-12 belongs), and while in theory the ten conferences operate for the same national championship prize and in the same top-division of college gridiron football, the categorical names give the stratification away. 

            The media rankings agree with my ELO-Following Football handicap system in having Stanford ranked #14 to start the year; while they only rank the top 25 or so, I have Rice tied for #113 out of the 130 schools in the top-division this fall here. (Yes, it’s approaching fall here.) While Stanford is the third choice in the Pac-12 and should challenge defending conference champion University of Washington for the title, Rice sits a distant fourth in the seven team western division of their conference, behind favorite Louisiana Tech and closer to the bottom than the top.

            Last November, Rice traveled to Stanford University for its final game of the season (the Cardinal played a “bowl game” in the post-season as a reward for their success, while the Rice Owls stayed home after having a losing record), and lost 41-17. That 24-point margin is what we’re predicting for today’s game as well. 

            Finally, if you’re going today, remember that while this is the first game of their season, and technically our college gridiron season doesn’t start until next weekend, this is not what you’re used to thinking of as a “pre-season” game. This counts on the teams’ records, and Rice especially will use this opportunity to play a highly-ranked team in a highly-visible game (telecast back home) to show whatever they can muster against Stanford today. Expect the Rice Owls especially to show whatever they have in their “bag of tricks”. Having said that, the Cardinal sports bigger linemen and better skill players, and by the fourth quarter it should be a fairly definitive victory for the favorites. 

            Here’s hoping those of you interested in the American cross between rugby and footy (with a little traditional football and a little basketball thrown in) enjoy the opportunity to watch it being played by two top-division teams, even if one is a significant favorite. If you’re not used to the game, I highly recommend tagging onto a source of information as you watch, either through a radio broadcast or a friend or acquaintance, who can clue you in to the nuances and the unfamiliar rules. The basics are simple, and not unlike rugby: ground acquisition through physical imposition, except the skill levels more closely resemble the high-flying marks of the AFL than the NRL.

            Enjoy!