A look at the FCS playoff picture

            We spend a majority of our time looking at what’s called the “FBS”, or the “Bowl Subdivision”, of American college football. The “big boys”. The big money. The four-team playoff through the already-existing bowl game system for those huge money-making programs.

            But the other half of Division 1 football in the US is nearing its playoffs as well: a 24-team bracket that gives it the “FCS” title – “Championship Subdivision”. In fact, it’s the only championship that the NCAA, the governing body of college athletics in the US, officially recognizes. So with two weeks to go in the regular season, let’s take a look at where those 13 conferences sit.

            Southland: Central Arkansas has two pretty easy games left to go 9-0 in conference and secure the automatic bid, and their 10-1 record will seed them in the top eight, allowing them a free pass into the second round. Sam Houston State is also likely to end at 10-1, with a loss to CAU, and I can see them earning a seed as well. McNeese State, in Louisiana, has two challenging games left to go 9-2, but should make the tournament even at 8-3. I’d love to see Nicholls State make the cut, after years of hardship on the field, but they’ll have to win two tough games to go 9-2 and have a chance.

            Southern: Wofford has lowly VMI left to beat to go 7-1 in conference and win any potential tiebreaker with Furman, which they beat 24-23 on the first day of the season. Both teams should qualify, and Wofford might get a seed as well. Western Carolina looks likely to earn a spot, if they beat 4-5 Mercer and make a decent showing at Power Five North Carolina next week, but it’s going to be tough for Samford to do the same without upsetting Furman next week.

            Pioneer: The lowly Pioneer League has eleven teams who essentially couldn’t cut it with the other conferences and formed their own, spanning the country. San Diego is the class this year, and can finish 8-0 in conference if they hold their 20+ point spread against Davidson this week and Marist next. No other team will be invited from the PFL except its champion.

            Patriot: Likewise, only the champion of the Patriot League is likely to get it. A cousin of the Ivy League with similar quality schools, this season will come down to the traditional Lehigh/Lafayette game in week 12. If Lehigh wins, they own the title, even if Colgate also goes 5-1 (Lehigh defeated them four weeks ago). Lafayette can also claim the title by beating both Colgate this week and Lehigh the next.

            Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State is the class of this league and a definite top eight seed. The winner of next week’s clash between Eastern Illinois and upstart Austin Peay, a surprising 6-1 in conference, will claim second place and have a good shot at a playoff spot.

            Northeast: This one’s easy: the winner of this Saturday’s game between Central Connecticut and Duquesne will be league champion and probably the one playoff invitee. Defending champion Duquesne is favored in our ELO-FF rating system by 12 points. There are rarely two candidates from this league, but maybe the loser has a chance as well. Maybe.

            Missouri Valley: The cream of the crop league comes from the northern Midwest portion of the nation. Five-time national champ North Dakota State lost its first game of the year Saturday at South Dakota State, but still has a game lead in this fiercest of all Division 1 conferences:

            North Dakota State (5-1, 8-1) still plays South Dakota and at Illinois State.

            South Dakota State (4-2, 7-2) still plays Illinois State and at South Dakota.

            Illinois State (4-2, 6-3) still plays at South Dakota State and North Dakota State.

            South Dakota (4-2, 7-2) still plays at North Dakota State and South Dakota State.

All four of those teams should make the 24-team tournament, no matter which one wins the conference. (I’m still betting on NDSU.) It’s also conceivable that Western Illinois (3-3 and 6-3) could be invited, with two wins against easier opposition to finish the season; Northern Iowa could go 7-4 with two more wins and get an invite; and even at 4-5 right now, reigning national finalist Youngstown State might get an invitation to return if they win twice more and get to 6-5 in the toughest of leagues.

            Colonial: Probably the second or third toughest league in the FCS, especially when the national champion James Madison Dukes are rampaging through it at 6-0 and 9-0 overall. They play Richmond this week and Elon next week, a possible title game as Elon is a surprising 6-0 and 8-1 this year themselves. Both teams should go to the tournament, as should 7-2 Stony Brook. The other feasible candidate would be New Hampshire, especially if they can beat Elon at home this weekend.

            Big South: Usually only the winner of the Big South gets invited to the Big Dance, but there are two strong candidates who meet in the season finale next week: Monmouth at Kennesaw State, two surprising teams who sit unbeaten in the Big South and 8-1 overall. If they win this week, it might be hard to turn down the loser of a close game between 4-0/9-1 teams.

            Big Sky: Another premier league in the FCS, its leaders are doing their usual cannibalization routine, knocking each other off rather than having one dominant team to send to the top seeds. Nevertheless, it looks like Weber State should go 7-1 in conference with two more wins, as will the winner of next week’s Northern Arizona at Southern Utah donnybrook. Those three teams look like the most likely to advance to the national bracket. Depending on how the strength of the league is evaluated by the NCAA this year, Montana might have the record at 8-3 with a victory over strong rival Montana State next week to get in as well.

            The Ivy League doesn’t send its champion to any post-season competition (in the name of the “purity of the sport”), but Yale now has a one-game lead over four others (Columbia, Harvard, Dartmouth and Cornell) and could win the title outright with two difficult wins over Princeton and Harvard.

            Likewise, the Metro East (MEAC) and the Southwestern (SWAC), which are made up of what are called “historically black colleges”, send their champions to the Celebration Bowl against each other. (That looks very likely to be North Carolina A& T, 9-0 and about to win the MEAC, against Grambling State, the class of the SWAC. Don’t ask why it’s “Southwestern” when it’s schools located around Alabama.) However, the MEAC is willing to let any non-champion go to the playoffs, and North Carolina Central looks like they may end up being a 9-2 candidate to do just that this year!

            *SO, what will that make the playoff bracket most likely look like?*

            Our guesses for the top seeds 1-8: 

James Madison (Colonial), North Dakota State (MVC), the winner of the South Dakota/SDSU matchup (MVC), Jacksonville State (OVC), Central Arkansas (Southland), Weber State (Big Sky), Sam Houston State (Southland), and Wofford (Southern).

           Our guesses for teams 9-24, in no particular order…

Furman and Western Carolina (Southern)

McNeese State (Southland)

Elon and Stony Brook (Colonial)

South Dakota/SDSU loser, Illinois State, and Western Illinois (Missouri Valley)

Southern Utah and Northern Arizona (Big Sky)

San Diego (Pioneer)

Lehigh (or Lafayette or Colgate) – (Patriot)

North Carolina Central (MEAC)

Central Connecticut / Duquesne winner (NEC)

Monmouth / Kennesaw State winner (Big South)

Austin Peay / Eastern Illinois winner (OVC)

            We’ll check back in two weeks and see how it turns out! Next week, we’ll take a similar look at the FBS conferences: who’s likely to make the title games, who’s going to reach bowl eligibility, and what the New Year’s Six Bowl teams and the Playoff Four look likely to be.

If I had the faith of a mustard seed....

I never completely understood that analogy of the Lord's. 

“If you had faith like a grain of mustard seed, you could say to this mulberry tree, ‘Be uprooted and planted in the sea,’ and it would obey you." (Luke 17:6)

Maybe that's because I haven't spent any time around mustard seeds. I believe that it's supposed to be an extremely small seed, which grows into an extremely large plant, one birds in the Middle East mistake for trees. So, I think the point He is making is that all we need is a very small amount of faith to do very big things. 

I'm struggling with my faith right now. Not my belief, mind you. And not even all of my faith, I suppose. 

• I have no doubt in the Lord, in His goodness, in His grace, in the propitiation and resurrection of our Lord Jesus Christ. 
• I have no doubt in what He has already done for me; I spoke last posting about how the God of the Universe has always made sure that I can make it from one paycheck to the next, even when I didn't see how that could be accomplished (even using the classic mystery check in the mailbox at just the right time a couple of times). 
• I have no doubt that He has a plan for me, and that everything I'm going through right now - the severe pain and fatigue from my disease, the probable disability retirement on the horizon, the difficulty with an upcoming marriage to my ladyfriend - has a purpose and portion in that plan. 

What I find lacking in my faith right now, for whatever reason, is the will to push forward through the pain He is allowing me to go through. I can deal with having to work with my children to accept my fiance-to-be as a step-mother, and the changes in our lives that implies. I can deal with the change in job status, even the obvious income gap that will be coming from retiring so young (I've yet to hit 55).  And as hard as the control freak in me is fighting it, I think I can even deal with the Lord's annoying habit of only revealing Step One of His Plan, instead of providing something more concrete than quit your job to work for Me, and I'll tell you the rest when you've obeyed Me that much first. I get it. I'm no better than all the prophets and saints You've done that with in Scripture. 

But the thing I can't get past is the constant pain and exhaustion. 

I spent Wednesday night screaming in pain. I took more medicine overnight and into Thursday morning and afternoon than I've taken anywhere outside the hospital. And I have enough medicine in my possession most times to make it all go away if I wanted to. Without the mess of a firearm, without the drama of most other forms of euthanasia. (Although jumping off the 400-foot high bridge near here without a parachute has an appeal, if I had to pick a way to go.)

Why haven't I? Because I do have faith in the Lord. 

I just worry that I don't have enough faith.

So, I'm praying for more faith. I'm using what faith I have to get more faith. If that doesn't work....

Well, that'll work. I have faith it will. 

Confessional

Forgive me, Father, for I have sinned. 

Your sins will be absolved, son. 

It has been two weeks since my last blog post...

That isn't true, my son. You posted about the college football playoffs just last night.

I mean about ministry type material, Father. Act II posts. 

Ah. I see. And why would that be?

(sigh) It's a complicated combination of reasons, Father. I mean, yes, I have posted about college football since the last post I did, the ones about how I hated my job. So that's one excuse. Another excuse is the ramification of those posts: since my last post, I made a call to the state retirement people and had them send me the information about retiring from disability. The major issue will be that I'm not yet 55 years old, which is where their "scale" starts, so I don't have any real idea if retiring this year is financially feasible or not. The other problem, which is where I'm working right now, is that I'm going to have to stop teaching in order for them to evaluate whether I should stop teaching or not. Which seems patently absurd to me - don't you have to see me trying to teach to determine if that's still possible or not? - but I don't make the rules. It's not unlike being a Christian: we may not like all the rules He makes, but we're bound by our faith to follow His rules regardless. 

That is true. Alright, please continue, my son.

So, that's occupied a great deal of my mental energy and some of my actual time. To finish the thought, in order to prove my frailty, the gentlemen from the state suggested I go back to Social Security and apply for disability through them again first. (I tried that a few years ago, but I was much healthier then.) If they approved my disability, that would go a long way towards convincing the state's evaluation proctor (a company called "MMRO", which sounds like "tomorrow" to me, which seems prophetic) that my disability was genuine enough to verify on their end as well.

But I don't understand why you're concerned about proving this. From what you've said before, you're barely doing anything in the classroom now - your assistant does all the legwork and most of the teaching - and you still can't make it through most of the days. 

That's true. But my condition is so rare that most doctors haven't even heard of it - the fellow with the state sure hadn't; he wanted as many details as I could share, out of sheer curiosity! - so I'm worried that combined with the lack of a physical "display" of damage (a still photo of me looks normal, not "disabled"), an evaluative doctor examining me for the first time wouldn't see me as "disabled" in any way. 

Are you serious? All he or she would have to do is take a look at your list of medications. Didn't you say once that your late wife died in part because the morphine was too much for her system to handle?

Yes. 

How much did she have in total before you two saw what it was doing to her and cut it off?

Um, two 30 mg pills. There was still 26 mg in here system at the autopsy, six days later. 

And you take how much yourself?

Um... two hundred mg per day. Plus 60 mg oxycodone, plus 2400 mg of gabapentin. The venlafexine's supposed to help with pain a little bit, too.

Don't you think that's sufficient evidence in and of itself?

No, because I've taken most of that for several years, and I wasn't applying for disability retirement then. If the condition's being held in check, I don't need to retire! It's only now that the fatigue is overwhelming me during the school day that I feel the need to stop cheating the school system and give in to what my health is actually telling me. 

(Pause)

That's not all of it, is it?

(Pause)

No. No, like I wrote the other day - well, the other week - the job itself is making me not want to fight the pain and fatigue any more, too. I was much more willing to fight those when I felt like I was doing something useful, teaching students in the alternative school who wanted to learn something, perhaps needing some kind of different instruction than they were getting in the mainstream classroom. But now... now we're just a glorified probation office. Have I told you that out of the 22 students we had last month, 15 of them had parole officers? That means I had at least 2/3 of my class on probation of some sort, plus another one or two who were waiting for sentencing. There were and are only a handful of actual "alternative" education students there, and I do almost NO teaching any more because these kids don't generally WANT to learn. They're only here because the court says they HAVE to be. 

Ah. 

That's not what I want to do with the remaining strength in my life. I've been reduced to being an administrator - the thing I hate doing more than anything else in the school system. Throughout my career, I've thanked every good admin I've ever had because I appreciated that there were people who were willing to take on those thankless jobs that included all the worst parts of teaching (paperwork, discipline, long hours) and excluded all the best (working with students!). And that's what I'm stuck with now - most of my day is spent suspending students and filling out the requisite paperwork that goes with those suspensions, for example. I mean, it needs to be done, but when it's using up my very limited reserve of strength? I can't believe that's how God wants me to use these last years. 

That makes sense.

And in fact once I started mentally down this road, He's been encouraging me to walk this path, reminding me that we're in the last year or so of Christians on the earth. The Rapture is coming very soon, and there are FAR better ways for me to spend my limited time and strength. 

Like what, would you say?

(Pause)

That's the problem, of course. God never lays the entire plan out for us ahead of time, does He? 

No, He only provides us with Step One. The rest of the plan is oft-times too frightening to absorb all at once. Plus, He wants to make sure you'll obey before He casts you off into the deep. So, what do you believe "Step One" is?

Step One is to retire from my job teaching in the schools. Perhaps the retirement money plus SSI is sufficient to make it through the next year - and I have to remember, that's all I have to survive! - or perhaps I can pick up some extra income from teaching on line, like with the IDLA (Idaho Digital Learning Academy). God has always provided for me whenever a shortfall arose, so I'm really not worried about the money part of this.

Really? I don't believe you, my son. Lying is a sin, you know. 

I know, Father, but it's the truth. I may not be completely trusting in the Lord, but I've seen too much evidence to doubt what He says in Matthew 6, about dressing the sparrows and the flowers, so how much more will he care for us. I've gotten too many random checks in the mail on a month where I didn't know how I'd make ends meet not to believe.

No, what I'm fearful of is not understanding what the rest of "Step One" is. I don't know what He wants me to do once I've retired! How am I supposed to serve Him? 

How? Well, what are your most prominent spiritual gifts, my son?

The obvious one would be writing, like I've been doing through this blog. The other gift I have, of course, is teaching, and I've been doing that in the school systems for 34 years now.

Most of your writing is also teaching, you realize...

 I know. And that's my assumption, that I'll continue to do that. But if He's going to such drastic measures now, is He arranging this solely so that I can simply do what I've been doing otherwise? That seems...

You don't need to know the rest yet, my son. Just get through Step One first. Keep doing the rest of what you're doing until He opens the door for you to move forward in the direction He wants you to go.

And trust Him, son. Trust God to guide you where you need to go for His sake. Listen, quietly, as much as you can. So far, you've done what has been asked of you - keep that up. Move forward with this retirement, allow your schedule to be freed up so that whatever He has planned for you in the year to come, you will be available to do it to the best of your remaining strength and ability.

May God bless you and protect you, and guide you moving forward, my son.

Thank you, Father.

And the Committee has spoken!

Originally, I wanted to talk about the surprise teams of the 2017 college football year: Iowa State, Boston College, Arizona, even Austin Peay and Elon in the FCS. But the elephant in the room was too large.

The first College Football Playoff rankings came out Tuesday night (Wednesday, Australian time). Wisely, the 13-member committee of experts (how sarcastically that term is used depends on your opinion of the process; I think it’s as good as we can expect) do not issue any preliminary rankings until a few weeks before the actual need for a top four and a top twelve, so as not to waste our time or theirs. As expected, their top four teams as of week 9 are (drum roll, please)…

…the Georgia Bulldogs, Alabama Crimson Tide, Notre Dame Fighting Irish, and the Clemson Tigers. (You could hardly ask for a better, more varied set of mascots than that, could you? Maybe if we had the TCU Horned Frogs in there, or the Ohio State Buckeyes…)

In the ELO-Following Football rating system, there are five teams who stand head-and-shoulders above the others, and they particularly show up when you remove the pre-season ranking bias that we and every other system incorporates in September at least. [I’ve found that maintaining the pre-season portion of the rating improves prediction results over the adjusted scores, which is why I only use the adjusted score for demonstrations like these.] And one of those teams named today isn't among them, despite their on-field credentials. When you make that adjustment in our numbers, here are the top five teams:

Alabama (adjusted score: 0.) ELO-FF rating: 5, 1st place

Georgia (adj score: 1.)          ELO-FF rating: 11, 4th place

Ohio State (adj score; 1.) ELO-FF rating: 7, 2nd place

Penn State (adj score: 2.) ELO-FF rating: 9, 3rd place

Notre Dame (adj score: 2.)          ELO-FF rating: 14, tie for 6th

Then, there’s a significant gap to the next team, Oklahoma State (adjusted score of 5, fifth place ELO-FF rating of 12), and an even bigger gap to seventh place and beyond (with adjusted scores of 9 to 13) – Iowa State, Mississippi State, TCU, Auburn, Central Florida, Virginia Tech, Stanford, THEN Clemson, Wisconsin, and the University of Washington. (Strictly speaking, the next lowest score belongs to defending FCS champion James Madison at 14, with North Dakota State close behind them at 16!)

If you’re serious about picking out the four best teams for the playoff at the end of the year, that’s as far down as we need to go when we’re two-thirds of the way through the season. (Seriously: do you think Arizona or Texas are getting in? Those are teams #17 and #18 on our list right now.)

As for Clemson, undoubtedly the reasoning the committee used was that their one loss, as bad as it was (27-24 to lowly Syracuse), came on a short week, in a road game, when their starting quarterback went down early in that game. But the ELO-FF system ignores that for the simple reason that if you're evaluating teams strictly on their on-field performance, as they claim to be (for example, the committee famously does NOT account for games yet to be played - see Baylor/TCU three weeks ago). Clemson played that game, and they lost. The teams the one-loss crew of ours failed against - Notre Dame lost to Georgia by one; Penn State to Ohio State by one, and Ohio State to 7-1 Oklahoma - all fall in the CFP top six. (OU was 5th, OSU 6th, and Penn St 7th). Syracuse, not surprisingly, is not ranked by the committee, despite their "signature win".

We still believe that those five teams that have separated themselves from the peloton – two SEC schools, two from the Big Ten that just played a phenomenal, 39-38 thriller won by OSU in the final minutes, and the independent powerhouse Notre Dame – are basically guaranteed to have first say in the make-up of the CFP foursome. The winner of the SEC championship game on December 2 – and if they’re both still undefeated going in, very possibly the loser as well – will be there. Ohio State now has a clear run to their finals spot if they beat Michigan in a few weeks, and then win the conference title game (most likely against Wisconsin). Both Penn State and Wisconsin will have something to say if they hiccup, but it’s now the Buckeyes’ spot to lose. And a 12-1 Power Five conference champ WILL be in the finals.

As for Notre Dame, their independent status is advantageous only when it allows them to schedule well – and this year, it has. Besides the one-point loss to Georgia in one of the games-of-the-year, they’ve wiped up ACC Atlantic leader North Carolina State by 21, resurgent Boston College by 29, and Pac-12 South leader USC by 35 points! Their scheduled “lightweights” aren’t that light, either: Miami-Ohio (top tier team in the MAC), equally resurgent Michigan State, and two teams expected to be better than they have been, Temple and North Carolina. If they finish 11 and 1, they’ll also have beaten a strong Naval Academy club, a Wake Forest team we have in our top 25, #18 Stanford and #9 Miami of Florida. No other team has that kind of “Murderer’s Row” to battle through, so if the Irish succeed, they’ve written their own ticket to the CFP.

Do any other teams have a chance? Of course.

Even if these five teams hold up their end of the bargain, you’ve only got two conference champs in the bunch. It would be easy for the committee to “reserve” a spot beyond Notre Dame and the SEC and Big Ten champs (and off course, if more losses creep into their resumes, more spots may open up): Justify Penn State’s absence as having been the victim of their unofficial “elimination game” this past weekend, and remove the loser of the Alabama-Georgia SEC title game the same way.

So who’s most likely to fill that spot? Well, Clemson will evidently get first ups, according to the CFP committee.

The ACC champ will certainly have an argument, especially if it IS defending champion Clemson. But even an undefeated (or even a one-loss) Miami of Florida, or possibly a one-loss Va-Tech, will get serious consideration from the committee - as we said before, a 12-1 Power Five champ will probably get into the final four.

Perhaps the carnage in the Big Twelve will ease up these last four weeks, and one of TCU, Iowa State, Oklahoma or Ok-State will end up with just the one conference loss, a victory in the nonsensical title game and thus a legitimate argument for a spot at the finals table. But even with Oklahoma at five right now, it's hard to imagine them going through OSU, TCU, and then one of those three top teams again unscathed.

And in the land of make-believe, there’s also the possibility that the CFP will forget that the one-loss Washington Huskies were the victims of perhaps the ugliest of the losses any of that category of teams suffered, or that carnage will ensue and either the two-loss Stanford Cardinals, the two-loss Southern Cal Trojans, or the remaining AAC-unbeaten, Central Florida, will emerge as a viable option when December 3rd comes around. More likely, those teams will be hoping for a seat at the New Year’s Six banquet, rather than a backstage pass to the playoffs.

But if I were a betting man (and I’m not), the top four on the initial CFP ranking is also the way I’d bet for the top four to look in five weeks, when it matters.

Let’s take a look at this week’s top games:

There are two huge games in the ACC Saturday: Clemson travels to North Carolina State to try and re-take control of the Atlantic division, while Miami of Florida hosts Virginia Tech and hopes to hold off the Hokies’ attempt to do the same in the Coastal division. While Vegas has Clemson as a 7.5 point favorite and Miami as a three-point underdog, we see Clemson as just a three-point favorite, and rate the Miami/VT game as a toss-up. (Georgia Tech at Virginia may also be a classic, although we favor the “ramblin’ wreck” by 12.)

Nothing in the Big Ten rivals the Ohio St/Penn St heavyweight clash from last Saturday night, but Penn State does have to host Michigan State, and despite being touchdown favorites (we have it more like two scores), PSU could be in danger of a letdown game against a good Spartans team. The other interesting games are Ohio State waving to the children’s hospital patients at Iowa (and winning by about 15), and Northwestern playing at Nebraska (nobody knows what to make of Nebraska this season: the spreads range from one point Nebraska’s way to four points the Wildcats’ way. We like Northwestern by two).

Bedlam reigns in the Big Twelve this weekend – Oklahoma plays at Oklahoma State. For once, the Sooners are underdogs: the home team is favored by three in Vegas, and by us by seven points. But each is 4-1 and has company at the top from TCU and surprising Iowa State, which has beaten both TCU (14-7 this weekend) and OU (38-31 earlier this season). They have a tough game at West Virginia (we see WVU by two), while TCU hosts Texas (the Frogs are a five-point favorite everywhere).

Stanford goes to Washington State, and the loser’s third loss eliminates them from title consideration completely (we have Stanford by five; Vegas has WSU by two!). In the Pac-12 South, Arizona has to go to the Coliseum and must play as a touchdown underdog to USC in their climb to conquer the division.

Alabama has the first of its big tests in the SEC, hosting LSU this Saturday as twenty-point favorites, while Georgia hosts South Carolina at the same spread. The most interesting game may be watching how Florida reacts to the sudden ousting of its coach following a bizarre disagreement between he and the administration regarding death threats. Florida plays at Missouri Saturday, and while Vegas has them as field goal underdogs, it’s hard to fathom how to predict the way interim coach Randy Shannon and the Gators team reacts this weekend.

In the Group of Five, we’ll be keeping an eye on the Conference-USA matchup between two rising teams in the east Friday night. Marshall goes to Florida Atlantic as a touchdown underdog. In the west, North Texas’ run to the conference title game will have to go through Louisiana Tech, which is between a three and ten-point favorite (we have it at ten) at home.

As for the FCS, North Dakota State faces perhaps its toughest challenge of the home-and-away season, travelling to South Dakota State as just three-point favorites. They’ll finish out the season against the two teams directly beneath them in the Missouri Valley Conference, South Dakota and then Illinois State. Their major rival nationally, 2016 national champ James Madison, has a fairly easy game at Rhode Island this weekend (they’re favored by 26), but then finishes their season against traditionally tough Richmond and 2017 upstart Elon as they seek the Colonial Athletic Association crown.

We went 6-3 in the games we picked in this space last week, and 76-33 overall for the week. For the year, we’re batting 76.5% in our overall picks, and compared to the Vegas lines and the Sagarin system predictions over all FBS games this season (Vegas traditionally doesn’t publish lines for FCS games), we have enjoyed a margin of accuracy over the two of 175 to 164 for Vegas and 152 for Sagarin. (Past performance does not guarantee future accuracy, however, and we don't recommend using anything written here for monetary purposes.)