Against the Vegas odds, the NFC's top-seeded Philadelphia Eagles have made it to Super Bowl LII (or 52, for you non-Roman speakers!) to face the AFC's top seed, the defending champion New England Patriots. Vegas, of course, once again favors the Pats, this time by six at the opening.
ELO-Following Football lists the game as a four-point Patriots victory, and personally I would take the Eagles if you're going to get anything much more than six points. Here's why: in all of the previous New England/Belechick Super Bowls, win OR lose, the game has always ended within one score:
| XXXVI | Feb. 3, 2002 | Superdome (New Orleans) | New England 20, St. Louis 17 |
| XXXVIII | Feb. 1, 2004 | Reliant Stadium (Houston) | New England 32, Carolina 29 |
| XXXIX | Feb. 6, 2005 | Alltel Stadium (Jacksonville, Fla.) | New England 24, Philadelphia 21 |
| XLII | Feb. 3, 2008 | University of Phoenix Stadium (Glendale, Ariz.) | New York Giants 17, New England 14 |
| XLVI | Feb. 5, 2012 | Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis) | New York Giants 21, New England Patriots 17 |
| XLIX | Feb. 1, 2015 | University of Phoenix Stadium (Glendale, Ariz.) | New England Patriots 28, Seattle Seahawks 24 |
| LI | Feb. 5, 2017 | NRG Stadium (Houston) | New England Patriots 34, Atlanta Falcons 28 |
So I'd take the Patriots in a range of three to seven points: if it gets as close as three, bet the Pats, and if it gets as wide as seven, bet the Eagles.
As for Australian footy, the women start their second season of "big time" AFLW game, in the heat of the late south Australian summer. Last year, the Adelaide Crows won the title by defeating the minor premiers, the Brisbane Lions. This season, the same eight teams will battle in Feb/Mar for the second title, and as one Crows supporter puts it, "We always win our titles in twos!". (The last men's premierships were back to back in 1997-1998.)
In fact, I have Adelaide winning both the men's AND women's titles this season. Here are my projections for a possible order (keeping in mind that Richmond went from 13th last year to a title last year, so anything is possible!)...
AFL Men: Adelaide AFLWomen: Adelaide
Geelong Melbourne
Port Adelaide Western BD
Sydney Brisbane
Melbourne GWS
Richmond Carlton
GWS Fremantle
Essendon Collingwood
Collingwood
Hawthorn
St. Kilda
Fremantle
Brisbane
West Coast
Western BD
North Melbourne
Carlton
Gold Coast
Basically, on the women's side, I don't see a reason for Adelaide to fall back, although Melbourne's good enough to overtake them and it wouldn't astound me. Brisbane's loss of Tayla Harris will be a big problem for them, and I don't see them going unbeaten again. The '17 Western Bulldogs had the critical metric indicator of huge growth next year (an abnormally high scoring percentage), so I see great things ahead this year for them, and the GWS Giants have picked up some good off-season recruits and should improve significantly. I just don't see enough growth from the rest to merit predicting anything spectacular from any of them; Carlton is the best of the lot, though.
For the men, I have many more metrics to go off of, and they all call for Adelaide to be the best of the bunch this year. Port and Geelong are close but don't have the close-knit experience together that the Crows do. Sydney's forecast hopes that the last part of the season is really them; Melbourne's hopes their last part of the season really isn't. GWS keeps losing talent, and it won't surprise me to see them take a step back; it wouldn't astound me to see them make prelim finals, either. As for the number eight-slash-sacrificial lamb spot, I've chosen Essendon on the basis of not just metrics but the gut feeling that they've got that "something" that allows them to win the close ones at the end - and I don't see that from Collingwood (who could very well simply win their last five to close to ninth once they're no longer eligible for finals) or Hawthorn or the Saints.
As for the rest? Fremantle could very well put it together and make finals - I actually would be less surprised to see them make finals than the three teams right above them. Brisbane will be what Gold Coast was in 2014 or the Giants in 2015 - that young team starting to put it together. How quickly they do is what'll determine their final position, but I'd be surprised to see them go #18 to #8 in one year. West Coast and the Bulldogs are fading fast; North needs another year to put it together, and Gold Coast isn't showing any signs of ever putting it together. Carlton's the enigma - they feel like they're losing ground, not gaining it, and the metrics all agree. But it looks from the outside like something's brewing in blue, and even though I'm no CFC fan, I would love to be wrong with this pick.
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