Monday, January 2, 2017

Face up to our predictions...

So, as the ultimate "face up to our predictions" website in modern sports, here's how we did in our predictions for all 41 of the bowl games we just lived through over the last seventeen days...and after that Rose Bowl and that Orange Bowl, I hope the Alabama/Clemson game goes seven overtimes, so we can extend this college season as long as possible!

We laid out our FOLLOWING FOOTBALL pics within the framework of ESPN's "Bowl Mania" competition. Again, in the best interest of honesty, we'll tell you we placed in the top ten percent of the straight-up pick'em, and in the top two percent of the "confidence" set up where you rank your preferences, as we did. So, here are the games in the categories we felt "confident" in...

We'll start with the routs - these are the games (in descending order) that we think should be easy wins by the first team listed: Final tally, 5-2 here.

Mississippi St over Miami-OH Dec 26th [got it, barely!] ........ Tulsa over Central Michigan Dec 19th [55-10, Tulsa] ........ Old Dominion over Eastern Michigan Dec 23rd (Poor MAC!) [And yes, the MAC lost every game, but they looked ok in this one, and even WMU against Wisc!]........ South Florida over South Carolina Dec 29th [46-39 USF]......Temple over Wake Forest Dec 27th [whoops].........Middle Tennessee St over Hawaii Dec 24th [completely wrong!].......Utah over Indiana Dec 28th. [barely!] 

Here are games that we're pretty sure we know who's going to win - it might be close, but we're confident enough to bet on the first team (in descending order) if that were legal: Final tally, 4-3, missing BOTH Idaho state games!

BYU over Wyoming Dec 21st [as expected, 24-21].........Boise State over Baylor Dec 27th [where did THAT Baylor come from?].....Air Force over South Alabama Dec 30th [nailed it]........Washington State over Minnesota Dec 27th. [surprise Minnesota team, but I was happy for them]...... New Mexico over UT-San Antonio Dec 17th [winner chicken dinner] ......... Colorado State over Idaho Dec 22nd (hope not, though!) [Yay! We were WRONG! Go Vandals!]......... Army over North Texas Dec 27th. [Easy call -UNT shouldn't have been there.]

Next, these are the bowl games where we feel comfortable in our choice, but it wouldn't surprise us too much to see the underdog not only win but win big. But our fictional money's on the first team, in descending order of certainty: Final tally, 5-1.

Michigan over Florida St Dec 30th [missed it by THAT much!]....... Alabama over Washington Dec 31st (but we're giving Chris Petersen a month to prepare! UW has a puncher's chance!) [just not the athletes to punch]..........Wisconsin over Western Michigan Jan 2 (same deal) [more like what I expected]............. Grambling St over North Carolina Central Dec 17 [take a look at Grambling's season! Surprised it was only 10-9!]..........Southern Miss over UL-Lafayette Dec 17th [got it]...........Oklahoma over Auburn Jan 2 [all Sooners once the Tiger QBs went down]

Don't know what to say about this group...more of the same as above; we'd just be even less surprised if the favorite was beaten, I guess! Still in descending order towards the closest game: Final tally 5-2 here, too.

Central Florida over Arkansas St Dec 17th [the only game of six I missed on the 17th!] ..........Troy over Ohio Dec 23rd [Too much talent]............Georgia Tech over Kentucky Dec 30th [see above].............Virginia Tech over Arkansas Dec 29th [the most bipolar bowl game I've ever seen! 24-0 Ark, then 35-0 VT].........Pitt over Northwestern Dec 28th [nope, but great game by NW]...........Tennessee over Nebraska Dec 30 [too much talent on a lot of these games] ..........Stanford over North Carolina Dec 30th.[and yet sometimes, that's why they plat the game! 25-23 Cardinal]

Now we're reaching the "don't really know, but I kind of like this team" range. Our slight favorite is listed first, and still in order of descending certainty:Final tally, somehow still managed 5-2!

Iowa over Florida Jan 2 [see, now I was just guessing]....... LSU over Louisville Dec 30th [lucky guess]........Louisiana Tech over (heavily injured) Navy Dec 23rd [pleased Navy made a 48-45 game of it] ........... Colorado over Oklahoma State Dec 29th [completely wrong]......... Western Kentucky over Memphis Dec 19th [51-31 WKU]..........USC over Penn State Jan 2nd [what an amazing game! 52-49 USC]..........North Carolina State over Vanderbilt Dec 26th [41-17 NC St].

Finally, here are the seven "flip a coin" games. Mind you, we do like the favorite slightly, but only slightly. The last game is a literal tossup for us - the computer says half a point, max.Went 3-4, but if I'd flipped a coin that's about average...

San Diego St over Houston Dec 17th [lucky guess].........Georgia over TCU Dec 20th [31-23, another lucky guess]........Ohio State over Clemson Dec 31st [flipflopped several times, landed dead wrong!]........Maryland over Boston College Dec 26th [36-30 BC].........Texas A&M over Kansas State Dec 28th [as close as expected; 33-28 KSU]..........West Virginia over Miami-FL Dec 28th [wrong-o, moose breath!]..........and maybe Appalachian St over Toledo Dec 17th. Or Toledo over App St. Or a tie. Or..... [Ended up on Appy St winning, and that's about how the game went, too. Great game! 31-28, ASU].  

So, overall, we went 27-14, in games that are theoretically designed to be as competitive as they can construct. We'll take it! Like we said a few weeks ago, we do really well with college FB, Australian and Canadian rules...it's just the parity of the NFL that has our system flummoxed!

1 comment:

  1. It's interesting to me that (except for the 'coin-flip' picks) the percentage right was almost identical in every group - about five to two or so; 24 to 10 in all the non-coin-flip categories.

    S0...it doesn't matter how CONFIDENT you are, just that you stick your neck out and make your choice?

    ReplyDelete