This Saturday is the penultimate event on the FBS
calendar in American collegiate football – the weekend when all the conference
championships are determined, and the bowl invitations are passed out,
including the four most treasured invites to the National Championship playoff
games.
We had a good predictive week last week, going 54 and 10
in our forecasts overall and 20-6 in the games we shared in this space last
week. We use the ELO-Following Football rating system: not a complicated rating
system in its essence, where we simply compare the game results to the ratings’
predictions and then adjust the new ratings by zero to four points towards the
team that did better than expectations.
For example, we expected Florida State to beat Florida by
four points. They ended up winning 38-22, a sixteen-point margin, which happens
to equate to FSU improving by a point and Florida adding a point to their
rating. On the other hand, the system expected Tennessee to defeat Vanderbilt
by nine; instead, they were routed 42-24. (It
didn’t account for the change in coaches, primarily.) So Vandy improved by three
points, and the Volunteers dropped three more points away from the top, as they
should, being worse than we thought they were. The “ELO” element ensures that
there’s a balance between what one team gains and its opponent loses; we have
criteria that tampers with that element on rare occasions, but in principle
that’s what happens.
In the FBS games we predicted, we went 12-5. The five we
missed included the Tennessee game we just mentioned, Ole Miss’ upset of
Mississippi State (and MSU then lost
their coach to Florida! Bad day for them!), Nevada’s surprise loss to their
in-state rivals at UNLV, 23-16, Miami’s let-down at Pittsburgh (the second year in a row Pitt has upset a
top-2 team in the stretch drive…but last year, it was Clemson, which came back
to win the title!), and the huge upset in Auburn, Alabama, where the Tigers
handled the Crimson Tide 28-16.
Our winning picks included Washington (routed WSU 41-14), Ohio State and
Wisconsin in the Big Ten, Clemson (over
South Carolina), UCF (49-42 winners
on a kick-off return for a touchdown to win the game in the fourth quarter), NC
State, Georgia, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Stanford, and Toledo. Oh, and
Iowa trounced Nebraska 56-14, which caused Nebraska to fire their coach after a
4-8 season, and greedily eye the young man running the 11-0 Central Florida
team, Scott Frost, who just happens to be a former Nebraska quarterback…
Coach raiding is (unfortunately)
a way of life in any sports system where you have so many different levels of
the activity so interconnected: Power Five, Group of Five, FCS, Division 2,
Division 3, and so on down the line. Even cross-pollination like Florida taking
in-conference rival Mississippi State’s coach Dan Mullen can happen when
there’s such a discrepancy in money and facilities availability. But most often
intra-conference or other parallel moves only happen when there’s some local
connection, like Nebraska’s hoping will happen with the UCF coach, Scott Frost,
who led the Cornhusker team to a national championship 20 years ago.
Let’s take a look at the nine conference championship
games set for this Saturday (the Sun Belt
does not play a title game):
Clemson v Miami-Florida in Charlotte for the ACC title (we have Clemson by 8; Vegas says 9.5
points).
Ohio State v Wisconsin in Indianapolis for the Big Ten (we see Ohio St by three; Vegas doubles
that).
TCU at Oklahoma for the Big Twelve (we say OU by six; Vegas says seven).
Auburn v Georgia at Atlanta for the SEC (Vegas picks Georgia to gain revenge on
Auburn, favoring them by 2.5; we see the game as a toss-up.)
Stanford
v USC in Santa Clara for the Pac-12 championship (we say Stanford by four; Vegas goes with Southern Cal by three. Should
be interesting!).
Memphis at Central Florida for the American conference (UCF by five. Regardless of who wins, the
winner here is the Group of Five’s New Year’s Six representative.)
North Texas at Florida Atlantic for Conference-USA’s
title (Vegas says FAU by ten; we say 13.)
Toledo v. Akron in Detroit for the MAC title (Toledo is favored by 14 on our board and 20
in Las Vegas)
Fresno State at Boise State for the Mountain West (the rerun of last weekend’s 28-17 Fresno
win is predicted to go the other way this Saturday – we say Boise by 7; Vegas
says 9.)
And in the Sun Belt, the two games that will informally
determine the champion are Troy at Arkansas State (both are 6-1 in conference, and ASU is a 2-point favorite) and
Appalachian State hosting Louisiana-Lafayette (where they are 16 point favorites on our board, 15 in Vegas) to
stay tied with the Troy/ASU winner at one loss in conference. IF they lose to ULL, then the
winner of Troy/ASU will be the sole champion of the Sun Belt conference. (For a
change!)
After those games have been played on Saturday, we expect
the announcement Sunday evening about the four teams chosen for the National
Championship semifinals. The consensus opinion at the moment is that the
winner of the SEC title game is in, and the winner of the ACC title game
is also in. Following that, IF the Oklahoma Sooners can win the Big Twelve
title game (at home) and IF Wisconsin stays undefeated by winning
against Ohio State in the Big Ten (that would be a slight upset), then those
two teams are in the final four as well, and we’re settled.
IF
one or both of those teams lose, then what?
Do
you put a one-loss Alabama team in, losing only to a possible SEC champion on
the road, over a two-loss Ohio State who may be playing the best ball in the
country right now? Or do you consider TCU with two losses? Or Wisconsin with
one loss to the only highly-ranked team they played? Or Southern Cal with two
losses if they win the Pac-12? Do you consider Miami/Clemson/Georgia/Auburn if
they’ve lost their conference championship games? What about a 12-0 Central
Florida team in the “little” American Athletic Conference?
Personally,
I’d consider TCU or Ohio State first, as conference champs, even with two
losses – and therefore even Stanford or USC. Alabama is unquestionably the best
of the teams not playing this weekend, and has the best record of the “losers”
to boot. And I know I’m a Group of Five blowhard, but I’d consider 12-0 UCF, an
AAC titlist, over a three-loss non-champ any day of the week. Maybe even a
two-loss team.
It
will be interesting, unless Wisconsin and Oklahoma make it easy for the
committee. (This is why, as much as I
hate the idea, an eight-team tournament makes so much sense. Five Power Five
conference champs, one from the Group of Five, and two wild cards. I love four
teams – it just feels right – but four available slots when there are
five conferences in charge is stupid.)
On to the FCS
level, where seven of our eight predictions came up golden – but like
everyone else, we underestimated the weak Pioneer League’s strong champion, the
San Diego Toreros. San Diego was expected to be easy fodder for Northern
Arizona, third in the powerful Big Sky conference – instead, USD destroyed NAU
41-10, with Northern Arizona’s only touchdown coming in garbage time in the
late fourth quarter.
Otherwise,
however, we were perfect: Stony Brook wiped out Lehigh 59-29 (we’d underestimated and said 12 points);
Weber State beat Western Illinois 21-19 in the best game of the weekend (we picked them by three); New Hampshire
beat Central Connecticut 14-0 (we’d
thought a ten-point margin was about right). Northern Iowa was supposed to
win by nine – well, try 39 instead: they routed Monmouth 46-7. Furman was a
10-point favorite over our sentimental preference, Elon, and were it not for a
failed two-point conversion, they would have taken Furman to overtime or won
outright, rather than losing 28-27. Kennesaw State did indeed win handily over
a strong Samford team, 28-17; and while Nicholls State put up a good fight,
South Dakota held to their four-point advantage up, winning 38-31.
This
coming Saturday, we expect all of the rested, seeded teams to be victorious
over these eight winners, with the possible exception of Furman (we see a tossup at Wofford) and South
Dakota (we see Sam Houston State as a
five-point favorite, but others have USD as the favorite there). Here are
our ELO-FF predictions:
Weber
State @ Southern Utah (-3).
Kennesaw
State @ Jacksonville State (-6).
New
Hampshire @ Central Arkansas (-19).
Stony
Brook @ James Madison (-20).
Northern
Iowa @ South Dakota State (-8).
South
Dakota @ Sam Houston State (-5).
San
Diego @ North Dakota State (-17).
Furman
@ Wofford (even).
Almost everyone who’s paid attention to the FCS this year
is simply waiting for the first Saturday of 2018, when we all presume James
Madison University will try to defend its newly won title against
five-time-previous winner North Dakota State in Frisco, Texas. We’re treating all the rest of these games as just entertaining window dressing to keep us
occupied until the two powerhouses meet on January 6th for all the
marbles.
Plus, there’s the SWAC championship, where the winner
goes to the Celebration Bowl to face North Carolina A&T for the HBC
(Historically Black College) championship: Alcorn
State @ Grambling State (-18), after a GSU victory over their chief rival
Southern University last weekend.
[Originally published in The Roar, Nov 29, 2017]
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