[Originally published in The Roar, July 10th, 2017]
The
on-site announcers’ initial instinct, and mine as well, was that the Giants’
current streak of draws to Geelong and Hawthorn was the first time in VFL/AFL
history such a streak had occurred.
They’re
forgiven for not remembering the last occasion. It was 96 years ago, in 1921,
when Carlton put back-to-back draws together in rounds four and five against
Fitzroy and South Melbourne (nee the
“Western Bulldogs” and “Sydney Swans”, which puts in perspective how long ago
it was!). And there are some interesting details about that 1921 season and
those Very Old Blues worth exploring.
First
of all, to encourage the GWS fans, that particular Carlton team finished a
clear first on the ladder, eight premiership points clear of the Richmond
Tigers with a 16-game record of 13 wins, just one loss and those two draws.
However, to discourage GWS fans, because of the format at the time,
Richmond had to defeat Carlton twice in a row to win the premiership – and DID
so, in consecutive October Saturdays, by margins of eight and four
points. (Their 36-32 victory was played
in front of an MCG crowd of 43,000 on October 15th. Times change.)
There
were just nine teams in the VFL at the time – in their final 1921 ladder order,
they were Carlton, Richmond, Collingwood, Geelong (the four finalists),
Fitzroy, Melbourne, South Melbourne, St Kilda, and Essendon. (Hawthorn, Footscray, and North would join in 1925, and finish 1-2-3
for the wooden spoon that season.) With every team playing each other twice
in sixteen games over eighteen rounds (each team had to have two byes to make
the schedule work), there were therefore only 72 games played across the May
through September season – and five of those games were draws, including
three of the eight games played in rounds 4 and 5. (Seven percent of the games were draws that season.)
As
amazed as we all were having four of nine games during round 14 this year
within three points, we should really consider that fifth round of 1921. During
the first week of June, two of the four games were draws (South trailed Carlton
at every break before tying the Blues at 10.10.70; Melbourne and St Kilda
played a high-scoring-for-the-era, back-and-forth game ending at 90 apiece).
Additionally, a third game was decided by just one point, a Richmond
comeback victory over Collingwood for their first defeat of the season, 53-52.
(Geelong beat Fitzroy by 17 in the fourth game.)
In
fact, Melbourne also had two draws in the opening five weeks of the season (R5
and an opening round draw with Essendon, 78 all), plus a one-point victory
against South in R4 and a bye in round three. So, after four games, the Demons
were 1-1-2, with a percentage of 87% due entirely to their 44-point loss to the
Magpies in R2.
The
ladder after five rounds was actually very intriguing - if you’re intrigued by
draws:
Collingwood
4-1-0 16 pts (5 g)
Carlton 2-0-2 12 pts (4 g)
Geelong
3-1-0 12 pts (4 g)
Richmond 3-2-0 12 pts (5 g)
Melbourne 1-1-2 8 pts (4 g)
Essendon 1-2-1 6 pts (4 g)
St
Kilda 1-2-1 6 pts (4 g)
South
Melbourne 1-3-1 6 pts (5 g)
Fitzroy 0-4-1 2 pts (5 g)
Fitzroy didn’t win its first game
until Round 8 (though their draw came against the eventual minor premiers), yet
still ended up fifth, just out of finals.
The final ladder saw four of the
nine teams with two draws on their record, although of them only Carlton was a
finals-bound club (the other five teams ALL had draws, and Fitzroy, the Saints,
and the Bombers each finished with two).
With the lower scores of that era,
you might think draws would be a more regular occurrence. Not particularly: in
the three seasons between WW1 and 1921, there was only one draw in all
(Geelong-Fitzroy in August of 1919, each scoring 11.9.75) over the span of 216
games. Afterwards, however, there were two in 1922 and exactly one draw in each
of the next five years before the tie-less season of 1928 (when Hawthorn would
have loved a draw, going 0-18 instead), including the only “blemish” on North
Melbourne’s 0-17-1 record in 1926.
[picture – probably of current GWS
or old Carlton]
What about the effects of this draw on
2017?
The happiest team after the Tassie
Tie had to be the Adelaide Crows, whose superior percentage suddenly became
important again. For GWS, a tie was almost as bad as a loss: they’ll
undoubtedly stay behind the Crows in percentage over the last seven rounds, and
now Geelong has the sole advantage of being “out of sync” with the two leaders.
But over the last seven rounds, the
Crows have no “rollover” games, where they could sleepwalk and still win like their
first half against the suddenly-hapless Doggies. They’ve also got to play third
place Geelong, sometimes-outstanding-at-home West Coast and Essendon on their
home decks, and Sydney and Port in the Adelaide Oval. Expect them to drop – oh,
let’s say two of these. That puts them at 16-6, 64 pts, and undoubtedly the
highest percentage in the AFL. (Even dropping three keeps them top four.)
Meanwhile, GWS gets tough games
against Sydney and Richmond the next two weeks. But if they win those, they’ll
be big favorites in the next four, hoping to put top two in their pocket before
going to Geelong in R23. Split the first two, win the next four, and they’ll
have the equivalent of 16 wins even before R23, which would then determine
first or second place on the ladder.
The Cats have the hardest remaining
fixture of the top three – they play Adelaide, GWS, Richmond and Sydney
in their last seven, with games against Carlton, Hawthorn, and Collingwood to
pad the schedule around those gut-busters. Even saying they’ll split those
fantastic four and win the other three, they’re still at 62, a half-win behind
the top two at the end.
Richmond, on the other hand, could
rip through five of their opponents with the Giants and Cats their two tough
games. But at just 9-6 after the embarrassment Saturday night, splitting those
two games still only gives them 15 wins, likely behind the top three.
Similarly, Port Adelaide has only their cross-town rivals standing between them
and being favorites in all of their remaining games. Give them those six wins
and they’re in the same position as Richmond.
It
seems highly unlikely that the top four won’t come from four of these five
teams at this point: these projections put all five between 60-64 premiership
points. [The Tigers look to be the odd one out, with the lowest percentage.
Thanks, Saints.]
Melbourne has three of the teams above
them still on the schedule, plus St Kilda, their personal bogeyman; five wins
would be superb. West Coast has to finish against the top two teams in the
competition the last two weeks; they probably also lose to the Saints at Etihad
to go 4-3. St Kilda has a beast of a schedule remaining, with only Essendon and
North not a top eight opponent; three wins would be about right. Sydney still
has to face GWS, Geelong, and Adelaide all on the road; give them one of those
three just “because”, and that gives them five wins. And we can’t ignore
Essendon, even at 7-8, with a schedule where only the Crows will open definitive
favorites against them. So even allowing for a hiccup along the line (Saints
next week?), pencil in five more wins, making 12. Those are the only five teams
who are left to compete for the three remaining finals places following (in an
order something like) Adelaide, GWS, Geelong, Port, and Richmond.
So,
Melbourne should reach 13, could reach 14 wins; for Sydney 13 is more likely,
and Essendon, St. Kilda, and West Coast should all end with about 12 wins.
Right now, the Bombers have the best percentage of the three, and would also
win the most games between here and September, suggesting they’d raise their
percentage the most as well and take the eighth spot behind the Demons and Swans.
(Ninth again, Saints?)
Sing a dirge for the Bulldogs, who
have dropped thirty points in their ELO-FF rating over the last 13 rounds, and
gone 2-11 against the spread since then. And they’re still the strongest
candidate of the bottom eight remaining teams: Gold Coast, Fremantle, and
Hawthorn don’t have the consistency to pull off six out of seven wins, which
would be the minimum required of them, and none of the others are close enough even
with a 2014 Richmond end-of-season change of form.
Before
I wander off for another week, here’s an update on the “once-around”,
faux-17-5 schedule that sees every team play every other team once. (All the Spreadsheet of Death has to do is
remove the re-matches.) Of course, not everyone has played the same number
of non-duplicate games yet.
Adelaide 11-3-0
GWS 10-3-2
Geelong 9-4-1
St Kilda 9-6-0
Richmond 8*-6-0
Melbourne 8-6-0
Port Adelaide 7-6-0
West Coast 7-6-0
Sydney 7-7-0
Western BD 6-6-0
Essendon 6*-7-0
Fremantle 6-7-0
Collingwood 5-8*-0
Hawthorn 4-7-1
Gold Coast 4-8-0
N Melbourne 4-8-0
Carlton 4-8*-0
Brisbane 2-11-0
If you’re
interested in the 18-4 model, where each team plays a cross-town rival twice
and all others once, I’m tracking that as well (including logical if not always ideal choices for the Melbourne crew,
based on who actually does play twice this year). So far, the only
differences are marked with asterisks above: add one to the given win/loss
column for those teams to see their “18-game” record.
Last
thing: What are the differences between expectations and accomplishment on
the field? Well, comparing the Spreadsheet Of Death’s compilation of game-week
predictions this season with actual results, here are the most over-achieving
and most under-achieving teams:
OVER:
Carlton (+3.8 wins over expectations), St Kilda (+3.0), Brisbane (+2.9, and
since they only have three actual wins you can tell that no one EVER expects
them to win!), Gold Coast (+2.1) and Essendon (+1.3).
UNDER:
Western Bulldogs (-3.9 wins under expectations, no surprise), West Coast
(-3.3), a tie between Adelaide and GWS (-2.7 each, because we expect them both
to win every game), and Port Adelaide (-2.3), which surprised me, but when they
started out so strongly, they instilled a “we’ll win everything vibe” like the
top two did.
By
the way, the top eight team with the best over-achievement mark right now is
Richmond (+0.4, which dropped precipitously after 92-10 at halftime Saturday),
with Melbourne now right behind them (+0.2). North (-1.0) and Collingwood
(-0.3) are the only teams in the bottom eight which have lost more than
expected.
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