The Final Fours in college football!

The final four teams have been named on the shores of American collegiate football. The College Football Playoff committee has ranked these four teams at the top of the FBS and seeded them in the semi-finals, played in the Rose and Sugar Bowls on January 1^st:

  Ø  #1 Clemson Tigers (12-1, champions of the ACC)

  Ø  #2 Oklahoma Sooners (12-1, champions of the Big Twelve)

  Ø  #3 Georgia Bulldogs (12-1, champs of the SEC)

  Ø  #4 Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1, SEC).

The difficult conversation for the committee came down to whether to put Alabama (with just one loss to 10-2 Auburn on the road which happened to keep them from winning the SEC) or Ohio State (champs of the Big Ten but twice losers, including a 31-point blowout at 7-5 Iowa) in that fourth spot. The consensus of the public was there was no right answer, and even USC (two-loss champs of the Pac-12) were considered. For the record, we have Clemson, Georgia, and Oklahoma all at a rating of 9 on our ELO-FOLLOWING FOOTBALL rating system, and Alabama and Ohio State the only two teams ahead of them (Alabama at 6, Ohio State at 8). So, either would have been an asset and a favorite.

In the end, Ohio State was placed fifth (and out of the playoffs), Wisconsin 6^th, Auburn 7^th, and USC 8^th. All four of those schools got major bowl games as consolation prizes: USC and Ohio State are meeting in the Cotton Bowl Dec 29, Wisconsin goes to Miami in the Orange Bowl Dec 30, Washington and Penn State meet in the Fiesta Bowl Dec 30, and Group of Five champion Central Florida (12-0 after a 62-55 barn-burner win against conference rival Memphis Saturday; the only undefeated team in FCS) plays 10-3 SEC powerhouse Auburn in the Peach Bowl on Jan 1^st. 33 other bowl games were filled with 66 other teams with winning records, exhibition games that reward the teams and their fans for a successful season. (In truth, the coaches get fifteen extra practices with those bowl invites, so they get to work with their team when their lesser rivals can’t.)

The FCS level is down to eight teams rather than four:

  Ø  James Madison (26-7 winners over fellow CAA team Stony Brook) host Weber State (30-13 winners against Big Sky rival Southern Utah).

  Ø  South Dakota State (which defeated fellow MVC Northern Iowa 37-22) plays upstart New Hampshire from the CAA (which upset Central Arkansas 21-15).

  Ø  MVC champ North Dakota State (routers of San Diego, 38-3) plays SoCon champ Wofford (conquerors of fellow Southern conference Furman 28-10).

  Ø  And Kennesaw State (which upset #3 Jacksonville State 17-7 of the OVC) defends the Big South with a battle against Southland power Sam Houston State (54-42 winners against MVC power South Dakota).

Our money is still on a James Madison defense against five-time champion North Dakota State in the final. For comparison, NDSU has a rating of 21; JMU 23. No other school is lower than 29.

We haven’t mentioned Division 2 or 3 all season, but those exist within the NCAA bounds as well for smaller, non-scholarship schools. In Division 2, Indiana of Pennsylvania hosts West Florida, and Texas A&M – Commerce hosts Harding University this weekend. And in Division 3, Mary Hardin-Baylor defends its national title against Brockport State, while 13-time champ Mount Union plays Wisconsin-Oshkosh for a change (they’ve played Wisconsin-Whitewater in the finals for something like nine years straight before last season!).

      As for our ELO-FF ratings, well, we’ve already revealed our top five. Here’s our top 25:

      1.       Alabama (rating of 6)

      2.       Ohio State (8)

      3.       Georgia, Clemson, and Oklahoma (9).

      6.       Wisconsin and Penn State (11)

      8.       Auburn (12)

      9.       Washington (13)

      10.   Stanford (16)

      11.   Oklahoma State (17)

      12.   LSC and USC (18)

      14.   TCU (19)

      15.   Notre Dame, Michigan, and the best of Group of Five, Central Florida (20)

      17.   Iowa, Miami-FL, and if you want to break the rules a mite, North Dakota State! (21)

      20.   Kansas State, Northwestern, Iowa State, Texas, Mississippi State, and Memphis (22).

In the FCS level, let’s look at our top rated teams for the year as well:

      1.       North Dakota State (rating of 21)

      2.       James Madison (23)

      3.       South Dakota State (29)

      4.       Kennesaw State, Weber State (31)

      6.       Central Arkansas (32)

      7.       Jacksonville State, Western Illinois (33)

      9.       Youngstown State, Sam Houston State (34)

      11.   Northern Iowa (35)

      12.   Illinois State, Southern Utah, Furman, Samford, Richmond, South Dakota (36)

      18.   Wofford, Montana State, and San Diego. (37)

            North Carolina A&T is the top-rated “historically black college” at 38, alone in slot #21.

This weekend’s predictions? Not much to work with…

Well, there IS the uber-traditional “Army/Navy” game, which for the first time in forever we have as a toss-up, zero points to give in either direction. (My gut says Navy’s seeking revenge for breaking The Streak – they’d beaten Army fourteen years straight.)

And there’s the FCS quarter-finals, but except for the Sam Houston State v Kennesaw State, I see double-digit margins in the neighborhood – JMU by 19, NDSU by 12, and SDSU by 16. The only reason I’m favoring Sam Houston is the fact that they’re playing their second in a row at home, and Kennesaw’s playing its second on the road: SHSU by one.

In Division II, I’m expecting a final between the two most oddly named schools: Indiana of Pennsylvania, and Texas A&M-Commerce, while in Division III, I am REALLY hoping for form to hold and produce a match between current reigning champ UMHB and perennial champ Mount Union.

Our prediction record for the year stands at 826-252, for a batting average over 76.6% for the year. We also lead the Vegas oddsmakers 250-234, and the Sagarin ratings 250-216 in accuracy. Next week, we’ll forecast all the bowl games and the lower division finals for you!